dmb8021 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Latest AFD from Upton: .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY INCREASING... LOOKING AT THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS...IT APPEARS THE GFS IS A SOUTHERN/EASTERN OUTLIER...AND THE 9Z SREF A NORTHERN/WESTERN OUTLIER WITH THE STORM WHEN COMPARED TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECWMF. THE 12Z GEFS MEAN TRACKS THE STORM OVER THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AT 6Z WEDNESDAY...WITH ECMWF JUST TO THE NW OF THE BENCHMARK AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS HAVE OPTED FOR A ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED. OTHER THAN THE SREF SOLUTION...THERE IS A CLEAR CONSENSUS FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT...WITH THIS IDEA BEING FOLLOWED. THE FIRST PART OF THE STORM...A CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN AZ...IS WELL RESOLVED BY LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS...AND IS HANDLED FAIRLY SIMILARLY BY ALL MODELS. THE SECOND PIECE OF THE EQUATION ENERGY FORECAST TO DIVE DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY TONIGHT/SUNDAY IS STILL OVER THE NE PACIFIC...SO HOPEFULLY EITHER THE 00Z OR 12Z SUNDAY BALLOON LAUNCHES WILL CAPTURE THIS FEATURE AND PROVIDE INCREASED CONFIDENCE. THE GFS IS A FAST/SHEARED OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND AS A RESULT DOES NOT STRENGTHEN THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING THAT MOVES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY SHARPLY ENOUGH (THIS IS A KNOWN GFS BIAS - NOT SHARPENING THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ENOUGH). THE RESULT IS A MORE SOUTHERN/EASTERN SOLUTION IN THE GFS. THE OTHER MODELS HANDLE THIS DOWNSTREAM RIDGING BETTER...SO HAVE THE SETUP FOR A LOW TRACKING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND INTENSIFYING MORE THAN THE GFS. BASED ON THE ABOVE HAVE CHANCE POPS SW 1/2...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NE 1/2 OF AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY THROUGHOUT BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT FAR NW ZONES...WHERE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING GIVES PRUDENCE TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. TAPER POPS OFF FROM NW TO SE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THURSDAY BEING DRY. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS AMOUNTS...THE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR A SIGNIFICANT TO VERY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. IF THE STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION IS CORRECT...THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS...WHICH WOULD ALSO CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS LATTER IDEA IS THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THIS WILL ENHANCE WORDING IN THE HWO...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW - EMPHASIZING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS IDEA IS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA FOR NOW. STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...BUT GIVEN SOLID CONSISTENCY OF GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND THE ECMWF OVER ITS PAST FEW RUNS...CONFIDENCE IN A WINTER STORM...POSSIBLY A MAJOR ONE...IS INCREASING IN THE LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. STAY TUNED. WITH THE STORM PULLING SLOWLY NE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY...MEAN ZONAL FLOW SETS UP INTO FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLY SOME SHORTWAVES PASSING...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT EVEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. RIDGING BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT...GIVING WAY TO AN APPROACHING 500 HPA TROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WESTERN 1/4 OF THE AREA SATURDAY TO REFLECT APPROACHING TROUGH. FOR TEMPERATURES...STARTED WITH A MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND...TWEAKED TOWARDS ECMWF LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS...AND UNDERCUT A BIT ESPECIALLY FROM WEDNESDAY ON WITH IMPACT OF POTENTIAL SNOW COVER. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Two take home points from the above discussion is the energy over the NE PAC still needing to be properly sampled and the other is the slow movement of the storm-- theyre talking about a storm that starts Tues night and ends Wed night-- and if the Euro is correct, will give us wind issues (which just adds to the impact and gives people power problems and drifting issues, like the last big storm.) I also noted they used the words-- "potentially very significant snowfall." That sounds like theyre at least giving some consideration to the idea that this could be a double digit snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Another classic shot. Gotta say...this would be ideal for lots of folks...but kind of a disaster for me. I guess I can't complain, though- I did see 28" a couple days after Christmas. Still- I hope my suspicion that this is overdone and NW hold true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Latest AFD from Upton: .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY INCREASING... LOOKING AT THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS...IT APPEARS THE GFS IS A SOUTHERN/EASTERN OUTLIER...AND THE 9Z SREF A NORTHERN/WESTERN OUTLIER WITH THE STORM WHEN COMPARED TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECWMF. THE 12Z GEFS MEAN TRACKS THE STORM OVER THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AT 6Z WEDNESDAY...WITH ECMWF JUST TO THE NW OF THE BENCHMARK AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS HAVE OPTED FOR A ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED. OTHER THAN THE SREF SOLUTION...THERE IS A CLEAR CONSENSUS FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT...WITH THIS IDEA BEING FOLLOWED. THE FIRST PART OF THE STORM...A CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN AZ...IS WELL RESOLVED BY LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS...AND IS HANDLED FAIRLY SIMILARLY BY ALL MODELS. THE SECOND PIECE OF THE EQUATION ENERGY FORECAST TO DIVE DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY TONIGHT/SUNDAY IS STILL OVER THE NE PACIFIC...SO HOPEFULLY EITHER THE 00Z OR 12Z SUNDAY BALLOON LAUNCHES WILL CAPTURE THIS FEATURE AND PROVIDE INCREASED CONFIDENCE. THE GFS IS A FAST/SHEARED OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND AS A RESULT DOES NOT STRENGTHEN THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING THAT MOVES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY SHARPLY ENOUGH (THIS IS A KNOWN GFS BIAS - NOT SHARPENING THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ENOUGH). THE RESULT IS A MORE SOUTHERN/EASTERN SOLUTION IN THE GFS. THE OTHER MODELS HANDLE THIS DOWNSTREAM RIDGING BETTER...SO HAVE THE SETUP FOR A LOW TRACKING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND INTENSIFYING MORE THAN THE GFS. BASED ON THE ABOVE HAVE CHANCE POPS SW 1/2...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NE 1/2 OF AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY THROUGHOUT BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT FAR NW ZONES...WHERE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING GIVES PRUDENCE TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. TAPER POPS OFF FROM NW TO SE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THURSDAY BEING DRY. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS AMOUNTS...THE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR A SIGNIFICANT TO VERY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. IF THE STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION IS CORRECT...THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS...WHICH WOULD ALSO CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS LATTER IDEA IS THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THIS WILL ENHANCE WORDING IN THE HWO...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW - EMPHASIZING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS IDEA IS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA FOR NOW. STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...BUT GIVEN SOLID CONSISTENCY OF GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND THE ECMWF OVER ITS PAST FEW RUNS...CONFIDENCE IN A WINTER STORM...POSSIBLY A MAJOR ONE...IS INCREASING IN THE LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. STAY TUNED. WITH THE STORM PULLING SLOWLY NE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY...MEAN ZONAL FLOW SETS UP INTO FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLY SOME SHORTWAVES PASSING...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT EVEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. RIDGING BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT...GIVING WAY TO AN APPROACHING 500 HPA TROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WESTERN 1/4 OF THE AREA SATURDAY TO REFLECT APPROACHING TROUGH. FOR TEMPERATURES...STARTED WITH A MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND...TWEAKED TOWARDS ECMWF LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS...AND UNDERCUT A BIT ESPECIALLY FROM WEDNESDAY ON WITH IMPACT OF POTENTIAL SNOW COVER. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.-- End Changed Discussion -- After this information is ingested, then we'll know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 After this information is ingested, then we'll know. Tonight: TOTAL GFS REVERSAL Hiccup complete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yes Love this map!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Two take home points from the above discussion is the energy over the NE PAC still needing to be properly sampled and the other is the slow movement of the storm-- theyre talking about a storm that starts Tues night and ends Wed night-- and if the Euro is correct, will give us wind issues (which just adds to the impact and gives people power problems and drifting issues, like the last big storm.) I also noted they used the words-- "potentially very significant snowfall." That sounds like theyre at least giving some consideration to the idea that this could be a double digit snowstorm. I'm not sure if the Sunday12z balloon launches will be in the 18z runs. So by the Monday 00Z runs we should have a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 In other words: Hint to NOAA. Good balloon launches/data, please. ----- Latest AFD from Upton: .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY INCREASING... LOOKING AT THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS...IT APPEARS THE GFS IS A SOUTHERN/EASTERN OUTLIER...AND THE 9Z SREF A NORTHERN/WESTERN OUTLIER WITH THE STORM WHEN COMPARED TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECWMF. THE 12Z GEFS MEAN TRACKS THE STORM OVER THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AT 6Z WEDNESDAY...WITH ECMWF JUST TO THE NW OF THE BENCHMARK AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS HAVE OPTED FOR A ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED. OTHER THAN THE SREF SOLUTION...THERE IS A CLEAR CONSENSUS FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT...WITH THIS IDEA BEING FOLLOWED. THE FIRST PART OF THE STORM...A CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN AZ...IS WELL RESOLVED BY LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS...AND IS HANDLED FAIRLY SIMILARLY BY ALL MODELS. THE SECOND PIECE OF THE EQUATION ENERGY FORECAST TO DIVE DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY TONIGHT/SUNDAY IS STILL OVER THE NE PACIFIC...SO HOPEFULLY EITHER THE 00Z OR 12Z SUNDAY BALLOON LAUNCHES WILL CAPTURE THIS FEATURE AND PROVIDE INCREASED CONFIDENCE. THE GFS IS A FAST/SHEARED OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND AS A RESULT DOES NOT STRENGTHEN THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING THAT MOVES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY SHARPLY ENOUGH (THIS IS A KNOWN GFS BIAS - NOT SHARPENING THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ENOUGH). THE RESULT IS A MORE SOUTHERN/EASTERN SOLUTION IN THE GFS. THE OTHER MODELS HANDLE THIS DOWNSTREAM RIDGING BETTER...SO HAVE THE SETUP FOR A LOW TRACKING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND INTENSIFYING MORE THAN THE GFS. BASED ON THE ABOVE HAVE CHANCE POPS SW 1/2...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NE 1/2 OF AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY THROUGHOUT BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT FAR NW ZONES...WHERE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING GIVES PRUDENCE TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. TAPER POPS OFF FROM NW TO SE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THURSDAY BEING DRY. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS AMOUNTS...THE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR A SIGNIFICANT TO VERY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. IF THE STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION IS CORRECT...THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS...WHICH WOULD ALSO CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS LATTER IDEA IS THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THIS WILL ENHANCE WORDING IN THE HWO...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW - EMPHASIZING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS IDEA IS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA FOR NOW. STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...BUT GIVEN SOLID CONSISTENCY OF GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND THE ECMWF OVER ITS PAST FEW RUNS...CONFIDENCE IN A WINTER STORM...POSSIBLY A MAJOR ONE...IS INCREASING IN THE LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. STAY TUNED. WITH THE STORM PULLING SLOWLY NE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY...MEAN ZONAL FLOW SETS UP INTO FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLY SOME SHORTWAVES PASSING...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT EVEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. RIDGING BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT...GIVING WAY TO AN APPROACHING 500 HPA TROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WESTERN 1/4 OF THE AREA SATURDAY TO REFLECT APPROACHING TROUGH. FOR TEMPERATURES...STARTED WITH A MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND...TWEAKED TOWARDS ECMWF LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS...AND UNDERCUT A BIT ESPECIALLY FROM WEDNESDAY ON WITH IMPACT OF POTENTIAL SNOW COVER. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Love this map!!! Yup, best for most of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I'm not sure if the Sunday12z balloon launches will be in the 18z runs. So by the Monday 00Z runs we should have a good idea. Heck- by then I'll be able to see it coming out my window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yup, best for most of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Eh maybe, but more likely not until tomorrow Tonight: TOTAL GFS REVERSAL Hiccup complete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Heck- by then I'll be able to see it coming out my window. Yea you right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Well, I said "most" because we've discussed that with that kind of coastal transference taking place, any issue of mixing would be of limited extent and not last long. Im on the south shore of LI so in the same boat as you, but I think dynamics will win out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yea the balloon so by the time the snow starts falling the confidence for the forecast there making should be pretty high haha. Good to see though the models are converging on a similar solution ( minus the outliers right now) but still think the key is how fast that coastal take over from the primary to indicate who sees the mix/changeover and the heavy snow coastal areas like me on long island have still gotta be wary about that outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Didn't see it posted in this thread (but might have missed it) GGEM ens were way west of its 12z op run today, saw that in another thread along with this image of storm tracks based on various 12z modles and their ens. Thought I'd share in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Didn't see it posted in this thread (but might have missed it) GGEM ens were way west of its 12z op run today, saw that in another thread along with this image of storm tracks based on various 12z modles and their ens. Thought I'd share in this thread. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Well, I said "most" because we've discussed that with that kind of coastal transference taking place, any issue of mixing would be of limited extent and not last long. Im on the south shore of LI so in the same boat as you, but I think dynamics will win out here. LOL...I know- you're right. I'm trying to see past myself and look at the "big picture" for everyone else. Sorry I'm so greedy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 +1 I know it's actually the border...but one could argue the WRF (NAM) is that interior black line! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Well, I said "most" because we've discussed that with that kind of coastal transference taking place, any issue of mixing would be of limited extent and not last long. Im on the south shore of LI so in the same boat as you, but I think dynamics will win out here. A lot of times, in the "re-developers", having latitude can be just as important as longitude. Look how our surface temps are around 31 or 32 degrees, while people in SE Jersey are in the mid and upper 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 LOL...I know- you're right. I'm trying to see past myself and look at the "big picture" for everyone else. Sorry I'm so greedy!! Trust me I want you to stay all snow if you changeover we're next lol..... looks like Upton is all board for an all snow event until you get down to the latitude of ACY. Toms River should be fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 through 54 the northern stream is digging more...pumping the hgts along the ec some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 A lot of times, in the "re-developers", having latitude can be just as important as longitude. Look how our surface temps are around 31 or 32 degrees, while people in SE Jersey are in the mid and upper 30s. Quite true...this often has alot to do with the fact that a NE flow component on LI still has the majority of it's roots on land. You get down along the NJ shore (from about me south)- it's all ocean as far as the eye can see. That's a pretty significant source of retained heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 gfs now has the two prog storm at hr 66...sub 1020 low over ky, sub 1020 low over cape fear area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 through 54 the northern stream is digging more...pumping the hgts along the ec some more. yes , and you are starting to see it more evident at hour 75.. this is going to trend in the right direction now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 18Z GFS is coming onboard this run.. possibly not all the way.. it's gonna bomb out maybe late.. but it's coming the right way for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Quite true...this often has alot to do with the fact that a NE flow component on LI still has the majority of it's roots on land. You get down along the NJ shore (from about me south)- it's all ocean as far as the eye can see. That's a pretty significant source of retained heat. That also enhances snowfall for you guys sometimes though-- I remember quite a few events where there were higher snowfall maxes on the Jersey Shore-- including April 1996 and 1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 18Z GFS is coming onboard this run.. possibly not all the way.. it's gonna bomb out maybe late.. but it's coming the right way for sure yup, the h5 low is a little slower which is gonna make this a good hit prob nyc or just north of them on northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 18Z GFS is coming onboard this run.. possibly not all the way.. it's gonna bomb out maybe late.. but it's coming the right way for sure Lets see if the GEFS are still trending west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 yes , and you are starting to see it more evident at hour 75.. this is going to trend in the right direction now. At hour 84, nice hit - precip shield amalgamating with the OH valley trough and intensifying across practically the whole of NY state... Looks like a good hit for the I95 crew... Way west of 12Z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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