A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Well if it gives you any confidence DT is going with 12"+ for NYC/LI with his first guess, lol Ugh lol, I hope it has a bit more accuracy than the 8-12 he predicted for LI with the Norlun. He did do really well in CT with that one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Who's DT? Dave Tolleris, a well respected meteorologist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Here is the H85 coming to save the day. Hour 90 on the NAM would be classic CCB for entire nyc metro area and Long Island (save maybe the far eastern end). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 In looking at just northeast U.S. panels and having a more zoomed in view.. the only area that has 850 mb temps near or just slightly above zero is extreme coastal NJ. Those same areas have 925 mb temps just at or slightly above freezing. The NAM predicted snowfall accums through 84 have a general 2-4 inches with 4-8 inches across all of the southeastern portion of PA. you can get a coastal hugger like this or track just offshore, if the coastal is the main show. Once you get into primaries holding on to long, the coastal could be 70 miles offshore and we could see mixing issues do to the primary holding on to long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Just wondering about VD '07. I definitely remember it being a major snowstorm about 3 days out before it became apparent there would be too much warm air aloft to keep it all snow near the coast (and even the interior). Was that because the coastal didn't take over? I'm just wondering if there's any comparison to the setup of that storm I wonder if it bombing would keep it from changing over for you guys-- or if it did, it would only last a short time, until the heavier rates came in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Well if it gives you any confidence DT is going with 12"+ for NYC/LI with his first guess, lol Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Dgex hour 90 and 96 should be awesome to look at. Will be out in 15-20 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Here's the NAM 2m Temps at 84 hours. Most of these warmer temperatures along the coast would crash in the next frame thanks to bombogenesis, but still an area of concern for those along the immediate coast. That said, I'm much more afraid of an OTS scenario than a coastal hugger. Even if the NAO is going positive and may suggest a coastal hugger, most reliable model guidance for this time frame is showing the storm either in the perfect spot or just skirting the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Just wondering about VD '07. I definitely remember it being a major snowstorm about 3 days out before it became apparent there would be too much warm air aloft to keep it all snow near the coast (and even the interior). Was that because the coastal didn't take over? I'm just wondering if there's any comparison to the setup of that storm The primary was too strong for too long-- that was a common characteristic for that winter.... same thing happened in March. We stayed below freezing both times, but it was a snow sleet zr mix lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Just wondering about VD '07. I definitely remember it being a major snowstorm about 3 days out before it became apparent there would be too much warm air aloft to keep it all snow near the coast (and even the interior). Was that because the coastal didn't take over? I'm just wondering if there's any comparison to the setup of that storm As I remember the NAM lead the way on how far that would come west, followed later by the EURO... THE GFS was kicking the storm out to sea off the Georgia coast on the 00z run 3 days prior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Oh ok, thanks. By the way the radar looks awful right now but it's been snowing steadily for a while now in NC NJ, light but certainly more than just flurries The primary was too strong for too long-- that was a common characteristic for that winter.... same thing happened in March. We stayed below freezing both times, but it was a snow sleet zr mix lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Has Hurricane Schwartz put out any predictions for the possible upcoming storm? I find him to be the best tv met in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 you can get a coastal hugger like this or track just offshore, if the coastal is the main show. Once you get into primaries holding on to long, the coastal could be 70 miles offshore and we could see mixing issues do to the primary holding on to long. Absolutely right. That's the unique feature of this storm...we've got 2 lows, with a stretched easterly component, and no big time damming to the north. The logical deduction would be a changeover. We're completely depending on the rapid deepening scenario to prevent that. Timing is going to be critical for alot of folks along the coast into interior SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The primary was too strong for too long-- that was a common characteristic for that winter.... same thing happened in March. We stayed below freezing both times, but it was a snow sleet zr mix lol. And the NAO was very positive which allowed the primary to get very far north and not die out. There was no confluence to the north of the primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 And the NAO was very positive which allowed the primary to get very far north and not die out. There was no confluence to the north of the primary. Yup, that was right in the middle of a string of pos nao winters-- actually 06-07 seemed snowier than it actually was because all the sleet had staying power. 07-08 was even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Mt. Holly has a 70% chance of snow for Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday for all areas. The immediate coasts of MD/DE have a chance of a wintry mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 DGEX does exactly what we thought it would do. Very nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Its interesting to note that the DGEX had mixing issues in previous runs, but seems to be trending away from that. Granted the DGEX isnt that good at this time range, but the trend is still notable (it has been happening for the last few runs.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 and Upton is up to 60% Tuesday night/Wednesday Mt. Holly has a 70% chance of snow for Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday for all areas. The immediate coasts of MD/DE have a chance of a wintry mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I think around 2/3 of frozen precip that fell that winter was in the form of sleet. Just unreal Yup, that was right in the middle of a string of pos nao winters-- actually 06-07 seemed snowier than it actually was because all the sleet had staying power. 07-08 was even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 dude it's an 84 hour 18z NAM run. Relax, see what the 00z runs show before going crazy. I was just stating what the run showed based on the conditional maps. I actually don't even believe this is the correct solution anyway. I think it will end up more like the EURO or even OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I think around 2/3 of frozen precip that fell that winter was in the form of sleet. Just unreal Had they been all snow, both V Day 2007 and St Pattys Day 2007 would have been blockbuster storms. Hell, Tax Day 2007 too. I still remember how excited we were with the earlier model runs and the letdown that followed. Seems like another era now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Its interesting to note that the DGEX had mixing issues in previous runs, but seems to be trending away from that. Granted the DGEX isnt that good at this time range, but the trend is still notable (it has been happening for the last few runs.) If the DGEX isn't good at this time range it isn't good at any time range. It essentially begins at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I was just stating what the run showed based on the conditional maps. I actually don't even believe this is the correct solution anyway. I think it will end up more like the EURO or even OTS. Although I think the beaches of C NJ, S NJ, and LI can have mix/rain issues the majority along and west of 95 should be fine. I agree with what DT's overall thinking is, as at one point (somehwere between PHL and CT) NE becuase of the coastal taking over and strengthining (as opposed to the inland storm sharing the show) amounts will grow as one heads NE. Seems to happen on most models in time for NY Metro but we will see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Has Hurricane Schwartz put out any predictions for the possible upcoming storm? I find him to be the best tv met in the area. He hasn't given any specific accumulations amounts, but yesterday (Friday) he seemed rather confident of accumulating snow in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 If the DGEX isn't good at this time range it isn't good at any time range. It essentially begins at 84 hours. Well, this is basically the point-- because its an extension of the NAM, which isnt good beyond 48 hours lol. Still, the trend is noted. I remember someone used the NOGAPS to show that the model with the biggest se bias had the storm becoming a hugger-- so even the less verified models still have their uses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Haven't been on much today. What time are they saying now as a start time. Earlier the storm was supposed to start late Monday night / early Tuesday morning. Seems from what I am reading it may be starting later Tuesday into Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I was just stating what the run showed based on the conditional maps. I actually don't even believe this is the correct solution anyway. I think it will end up more like the EURO or even OTS. You're in my old neck of the woods...I grew up in Folsom. If NAM verified...you too would get a brief changeover...but like you, I'm not inclined to go head first with the NAM...but I'm not saying it won't be real close!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Another classic shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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