tornadojay Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 wow. NAM at 81 looks like it's headed to a really good place. It's cranking the low up over the delmarva area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 and at 84, it is already hitting the entire region pretty hard. looks nice to me. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 and at 84, it is already hitting the entire region pretty hard. looks nice to me. I'll take it. Would that include the Phila region also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 That's my understanding too, but we'll wait for Will or SG to chime in. Many of our bigger ones occurred during a transition to positive, like Feb 1961 and PD2. As you'll note, a few of those were transitioning to positive quite rapidly too. I did a case study of the top 10 (12 total storms due to ties )winter storms to effect Reading, PA a couple years ago, I included NAO state and trend in the analysis (although will need to be updated due to last Feb's storms moving into the top 10) Here was what I got: State of NAO Storms occuring at a negative NAO state - Blizzard of 96 - Megalopolis Blizzard 83' - Feb Blizzard of 58' - Mar Blizzard of 58' - Blizzard of 78' - Presidents Day Blizzard I - Superstorm 93' Storms occuring in positive NAO state - Presidents Day Blizzard II - Mini Back to Back Snowtorms Feb 8-12 1994 Storms occuring in neutral state - Feb Blizzard of 61' Trend of NAO Negative to Positive - Blizzard of 96' - PD I - Superstorm 93' Negative to Neutral - Megalopolis Blizzard 83' - Feb Blizzard of 58' Possitive to Nuetral - None No Change - Feb 94' (was possitive) - Blizzard of 61' (was neutral) - March Blizzard of 58' (was negative) - Blizzard of 78' (was negative) No NAO data was available for Blizzards of 1909 and 1925 that were in study Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Would that include the Phila region also? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Would that include the Phila region also? yep! absolutely... everyone would get in on this.. DC. Philly.. NYC.. even back through most of eastern PA already has a healthy dosing of QPF to start off with.. and it is really just starting to bomb out at this point.... at least verbatim this NAM run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The 18z NAM is really strong again--and by 70 hours is bringing the surface low inland along the Carolinas. It really doesn't want to budge with this solution and it has support from the SREFS, ECMWF and GFS Ens. means. The diffluent flow ahead of the shortwave is actually better this run..so I would assume that by 84 hours we should be seeing something pretty on this run. We may have to wait till the 90 hr DGEX panel, but it should be good. It is a little slower to transfer the energy to the coast this run, though, so we should always be cautious. mixing potential with that kind of track and/or slow transfer, John? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I did a case study of the top 10 (12 total storms due to ties )winter storms to effect Reading, PA a couple years ago, I included NAO state and trend in the analysis (although will need to be updated due to last Feb's storms moving into the top 10) Here was what I got: State of NAO Storms occuring at a negative NAO state - Blizzard of 96 - Megalopolis Blizzard 83' - Feb Blizzard of 58' - Mar Blizzard of 58' - Blizzard of 78' - Presidents Day Blizzard I - Superstorm 93' Storms occuring in positive NAO state - Presidents Day Blizzard II - Mini Back to Back Snowtorms Feb 8-12 1994 Storms occuring in neutral state - Feb Blizzard of 61' Trend of NAO Negative to Positive - Blizzard of 96' - PD I - Superstorm 93' Negative to Neutral - Megalopolis Blizzard 83' - Feb Blizzard of 58' Possitive to Nuetral - None No Change - Feb 94' (was possitive) - Blizzard of 61' (was neutral) - March Blizzard of 58' (was negative) - Blizzard of 78' (was negative) No NAO data was available for Blizzards of 1909 and 1925 that were in study My bad forgot: Possitive to Negative PD II Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 That is extremely close to rain for interior South Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 JB on Twitter- "Major winter storm coming next week, Starts in south tomorrow, system from west joins it and major snowstorm I-95 corridor Tue into Wed!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 and at 84, it is already hitting the entire region pretty hard. looks nice to me. I'll take it. Wonder what will give in The euro to the nam or the other way around. Or sometingg in the middle. Always the million dollar question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I did a case study of the top 10 (12 total storms due to ties )winter storms to effect Reading, PA a couple years ago, I included NAO state and trend in the analysis (although will need to be updated due to last Feb's storms moving into the top 10) Here was what I got: State of NAO Storms occuring at a negative NAO state - Blizzard of 96 - Megalopolis Blizzard 83' - Feb Blizzard of 58' - Mar Blizzard of 58' - Blizzard of 78' - Presidents Day Blizzard I - Superstorm 93' Storms occuring in positive NAO state - Presidents Day Blizzard II - Mini Back to Back Snowtorms Feb 8-12 1994 Storms occuring in neutral state - Feb Blizzard of 61' Trend of NAO Negative to Positive - Blizzard of 96' - PD I - Superstorm 93' Negative to Neutral - Megalopolis Blizzard 83' - Feb Blizzard of 58' Possitive to Nuetral - None No Change - Feb 94' (was possitive) - Blizzard of 61' (was neutral) - March Blizzard of 58' (was negative) - Blizzard of 78' (was negative) No NAO data was available for Blizzards of 1909 and 1925 that were in study Thanks.... so we have a nice list of storms including.... PD1 AND PD 2, Feb 1994, Jan 1996, March 1993 in terms of what the nao state was... just looking by longevity potential, this storm shouldnt be encumbered by the nao state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yes the primary low is a bit too far north for my liking. Would have to see the H85 low track but looking at past setups like this, there is a high probably of a warm layer in the mid levels that would bring a mix/sleet to I-95 the H85 map is out....yeah this is not really ideal for the immediate PHL-NYC area, but great for PSUHazelton and Voyager Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 yep! absolutely... everyone would get in on this.. DC. Philly.. NYC.. even back through most of eastern PA already has a healthy dosing of QPF to start off with.. and it is really just starting to bomb out at this point.... at least verbatim this NAM run Thank you, I'm hoping it doesn't bomb too late for my area and the precip makes it out my way, but am happy where I stand for now. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 That is extremely close to rain for interior South Jersey. Yeah, there would be major mixing isuues if the NAM solution happened. But obviously it's way too early to be concerned about details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 That is extremely close to rain for interior South Jersey. Indeed. It's been very unusual for the last two winters so far that all storms have been almost totally snow (with the exception of the 2/10/10 blizzard where there was a little mixing); whereas in past years it was almost a foregone conclusion that toward the coast and S&E of the I95 corridor there would always be a question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 yep! absolutely... everyone would get in on this.. DC. Philly.. NYC.. even back through most of eastern PA already has a healthy dosing of QPF to start off with.. and it is really just starting to bomb out at this point.... at least verbatim this NAM run It's maintaining the scary changeover scenario right here along the coast...at least for a spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 For the I-95 people worried about the "warm layer" that will not be in the next frame as the coastal gets cranking and the dynamics come into play. 700 and new 850 will save the day. Here is a classic sim radar picture for a nice north east snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 It's maintaining the scary changeover scenario right here along the coast...at least for a spell. I wonder if it bombing would keep it from changing over for you guys-- or if it did, it would only last a short time, until the heavier rates came in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 And honestly, weve had nice all snow storms which even cut across long island-- the Millenium storm for one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 And honestly, weve had nice all snow storms which even cut across long island-- the Millenium storm for one. Well if it gives you any confidence DT is going with 12"+ for NYC/LI with his first guess, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Just looked at the conditionals. Not good at all for anyone south and east of I-95 at hours 78 and 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 For the I-95 people worried about the "warm layer" that will not be in the next frame as the coastal gets cranking and the dynamics come into play. 700 and new 850 will save the day. Here is a classic sim radar picture for a nice north east snow storm. Terrific post. You can already see the H85 low transferring to the coast at 84 hours. Not only is that indicative of the transfer and ensuing dynamic cooling, but it also signals the development of the cold conveyor belt within the next 12 hours. Seems to be already underway at 84 hrs. Impressive run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 In looking at just northeast U.S. panels and having a more zoomed in view.. the only area that has 850 mb temps near or just slightly above zero is extreme coastal NJ. Those same areas have 925 mb temps just at or slightly above freezing. The NAM predicted snowfall accums through 84 have a general 2-4 inches with 4-8 inches across all of the southeastern portion of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yeah, there would be major mixing isuues if the NAM solution happened. But obviously it's way too early to be concerned about details. JB just tweeted major snowstorm for I 95. Take it to the snow plow shop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Well if it gives you any confidence DT is going with 12"+ for NYC/LI with his first guess, lol Who's DT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Just looked at the conditionals. Not good at all for anyone south and east of I-95 at hours 78 and 84. don't look at the surface, your still snow at hr 84, the coastal wraps in the cold air and draws it into the storm. Its close but your still snow, maybe some graupel thrown in. You get a front end dump then over to sleet then back to snow once coastal rips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I wonder if it bombing would keep it from changing over for you guys-- or if it did, it would only last a short time, until the heavier rates came in. That would likely help cut down on the duration. We could still cash in...but it's getting perilously close. I'm cautiously optimistic the way NW trend is being overdone. But if I'm a betting man, I'd put $$ on at least a spell of sleet up and along the parkway areas south to north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedude11 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Just looked at the conditionals. Not good at all for anyone south and east of I-95 at hours 78 and 84. dude it's an 84 hour 18z NAM run. Relax, see what the 00z runs show before going crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desnowlover Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Terrific post. You can already see the H85 low transferring to the coast at 84 hours. Not only is that indicative of the transfer and ensuing dynamic cooling, but it also signals the development of the cold conveyor belt within the next 12 hours. Seems to be already underway at 84 hrs. Impressive run. Where on the coast is the transfer taking place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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