A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 January 11th to January 14th 1964, Alex, pretty long storm, but it took the wrong track for us to get 30+. Looks like it was a high end KU storm with a large area of heavy snow, but we were in the 4-8 end of it.... still, that was a good winter for us; el nino, wasnt it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Also probably a more widespread storm so instead of having parts of NJ with 30" and parts with like 3 inches you could have a uniform 6-12 with Jackpot areas hitting up to 15 inches. Yeah, and if we get any kind of dynamic action with thundersnow (even if its of short duration) we could have someone get up to around 18" IF things work out right. I've seen several storms that didnt stall that had a ceiling around that high. Specifically Feb 1994 (second storm) which dumped about that much in Newark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Even a 6" snowfall would be our biggest areawide January snowfall since 2005 I agree. Verbatim that 500mb signature will capture the low somewhat and bomb it out east of NJ. I still don't think it stalls like the Boxing Day storm but it could slow down a little and develop more banding signatures like we saw then. At max I see this as maybe a 12-15" event, not 20-30". Still very impressive however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The Euro expands the Precip to the west of the low, more amplified and great middle of the road track for many. GFS continues with its de-amplified and off the coast routine, when its individual ensembles are mainly depicting BM tracks or coastal hugger tracks. Looks like the ensembles of most of the OP runs were to the west for the last few days, hopefully everything is starting to come more in line now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Even a 6" snowfall would be our biggest areawide January snowfall since 2005 Are you serious? I thought no one in our area got less than a foot in Feb 2006? And what about the two storms last February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Reread Even a 6" snowfall would be our biggest areawide January snowfall since 2005 Are you serious? I thought no one in our area got less than a foot in Feb 2006? And what about the two storms last February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Are you serious? I thought no one in our area got less than a foot in Feb 2006? And what about the two storms last February? it says January snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Just for fun while we wait for the srefs and 18z suite, take a look at the Hires NMM at 48 hours. This is a classic NE snow storm 700 setup. This is likely too amplified as it is already showing a closed 500 low but its a pretty couple of images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Just for fun while we wait for the srefs and 18z suite, take a look at the Hires NMM at 48 hours. This is a classic NE snow storm 700 setup. This is likely too amplified as it is already showing a closed 500 low but its a pretty couple of images. Also a very nice snowstorm for northern Alabama & northern Georgia. I am sure the mountains in NE Georgia will do very well. Most indications at this point definitely want to bring this north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 If the trends continue, perhaps the storm can get captured a bit earlier, and thus slow down more at our latitude. This won't be a slow-moving storm by any means, but I don't think it's just going to race away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Reread Even a 6" snowfall would be our biggest areawide January snowfall since 2005 it says January snowfall LOL I saw that afterwards, my apologies haha. The funny thing is, I was just thinking about this the other day-- that we dont have has many big January snowfalls as we do in the other winter months. I wonder if suppression is the reason? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 If the trends continue, perhaps the storm can get captured a bit earlier, and thus slow down more at our latitude. This won't be a slow-moving storm by any means, but I don't think it's just going to race away. Yeah, I mean I dont think it will be a 12 hr deal, but we'll have to see the trends of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 SREF continues to be close to the coast. Freezing line is right through NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 whats not necc true is the idea we dont have a -NAO so the storm will be fast. we are transitioning from a -nao to +nao as the system hits and yes, our biggest KU storms occur during the span. however, the slowing or stalling doesnt necc occur from a strong block. if we had a strong block in place here there is no way this comes up the coast. but the stalling or slowing occurs moreso from the bombing stages, the capturing of the low, etc....and that can still happen here, even if the 50/50 scoots out during, transitioning to +nao, happens. if a met wants to chime in, please do. am i far off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 whats not necc true is the idea we dont have a -NAO so the storm will be fast. we are transitioning from a -nao to +nao as the system hits and yes, our biggest KU storms occur during the span. however, the slowing or stalling doesnt necc occur from a strong block. if we had a strong block in place here there is no way this comes up the coast. but the stalling or slowing occurs moreso from the bombing stages, the capturing of the low, etc....and that can still happen here, even if the 50/50 scoots out during, transitioning to +nao, happens. if a met wants to chime in, please do. am i far off? That's my understanding too, but we'll wait for Will or SG to chime in. Many of our bigger ones occurred during a transition to positive, like Feb 1961 and PD2. As you'll note, a few of those were transitioning to positive quite rapidly too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet-Phase Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 HPC excerpt from 2:30pm today. 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE COME INTO CONSIDERABLY BETTER CONSENSUS ON THE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE E COAST TUE-WED DAYS 3-4. THOUGH THE OFFSHORE TRACK SHOULD TEND TO KEEP ASSOCIATED HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM EXTENDING TOO FAR TO THE W. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH ASSOCIATED UPPER DYNAMICS FOR A GENERAL HEAVY SN EVENT FOR MUCH OF LONG ISLAND AND SRN NEW ENG. THE NEW ECMWF ALSO SUPPORTS THIS IDEA OF A MAJOR SNOW EVENT FOR SRN NEW ENG. HOWEVER IT IS TRACKING A LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN CONSENSUS OF OTHER MODELS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 whats not necc true is the idea we dont have a -NAO so the storm will be fast. we are transitioning from a -nao to +nao as the system hits and yes, our biggest KU storms occur during the span. however, the slowing or stalling doesnt necc occur from a strong block. if we had a strong block in place here there is no way this comes up the coast. but the stalling or slowing occurs moreso from the bombing stages, the capturing of the low, etc....and that can still happen here, even if the 50/50 scoots out during, transitioning to +nao, happens. if a met wants to chime in, please do. am i far off? Absolutely true...the bombing and upper level capture/deepening can allow it to stall and even wobble and retrograde within the flow...even if it's progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Coastalwx Euro ensembles EC Ensembles take the low in between ACK and the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Absolutely true...the bombing and upper level capture/deepening can allow it to stall and even wobble and retrograde within the flow...even if it's progressive. and considering how the past couple months have been.....it favors a deepening cutoff system. im stickin with the seasonal trends until they change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Coastalwx Euro ensembles it must be bending ene at that latitude then, because ACK is at 70W I believe (same longitude as the BM.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 and considering how the past couple months have been.....it favors a deepening cutoff system. im stickin with the seasonal trends until they change. Actually extending back to last winter.... its funny how radically different ENSO has been and yet the results have been so similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Actually extending back to last winter.... its funny how radically different ENSO has been and yet the results have been so similar. true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The 18z NAM is really strong again--and by 70 hours is bringing the surface low inland along the Carolinas. It really doesn't want to budge with this solution and it has support from the SREFS, ECMWF and GFS Ens. means. The diffluent flow ahead of the shortwave is actually better this run..so I would assume that by 84 hours we should be seeing something pretty on this run. We may have to wait till the 90 hr DGEX panel, but it should be good. It is a little slower to transfer the energy to the coast this run, though, so we should always be cautious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 it must be bending ene at that latitude then, because ACK is at 70W I believe (same longitude as the BM.) Alex, how are they prior to here in the ealier frames, based on location they seem to support the op ecm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 HPC excerpt from 2:30pm today. 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE COME INTO CONSIDERABLY BETTER CONSENSUS ON THE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE E COAST TUE-WED DAYS 3-4. THOUGH THE OFFSHORE TRACK SHOULD TEND TO KEEP ASSOCIATED HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM EXTENDING TOO FAR TO THE W. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH ASSOCIATED UPPER DYNAMICS FOR A GENERAL HEAVY SN EVENT FOR MUCH OF LONG ISLAND AND SRN NEW ENG. THE NEW ECMWF ALSO SUPPORTS THIS IDEA OF A MAJOR SNOW EVENT FOR SRN NEW ENG. HOWEVER IT IS TRACKING A LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN CONSENSUS OF OTHER MODELS. Did you expect anything different? Its been the trend since the beginning of last winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 and considering how the past couple months have been.....it favors a deepening cutoff system. im stickin with the seasonal trends until they change. Yeah...gotta stick with the trend...the trend is our friend. And thankfully, it's been in a friendly mood as of late...we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The 18z NAM is really strong again--and by 70 hours is bringing the surface low inland along the Carolinas. It really doesn't want to budge with this solution and it has support from the SREFS, ECMWF and GFS Ens. means. The diffluent flow ahead of the shortwave is actually better this run..so I would assume that by 84 hours we should be seeing something pretty on this run. We may have to wait till the 90 hr DGEX panel, but it should be good. It is a little slower to transfer the energy to the coast this run, though, so we should always be cautious. Definitely determined to bring this further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The 18z NAM is really strong again--and by 70 hours is bringing the surface low inland along the Carolinas. It really doesn't want to budge with this solution and it has support from the SREFS, ECMWF and GFS Ens. means. The diffluent flow ahead of the shortwave is actually better this run..so I would assume that by 84 hours we should be seeing something pretty on this run. We may have to wait till the 90 hr DGEX panel, but it should be good. It is a little slower to transfer the energy to the coast this run, though, so we should always be cautious. yea. i agree. I was just watching the NAM as it comes in....already has a nice closed off system developing at 75... looks like good potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Definitely determined to bring this further NW. Would be nice for a change. GIves you guys down on the jersey shore a.k.a snow capital of the east a chance to unwind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 15z SREFs were rather warm at 850mb, bringing the 0C line to the northern Delmarva, just shy of getting to Philly. It crashes after this frame though as the coastal low takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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