mattinpa Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Wasn't last night pretty much showing the same kind of thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GGEM is east of the 0z run. I am not sure why so many here think that the models at this point would have the same consistancy as 48 hrs before the storm. They never do and they never will. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Wasn't last night pretty much showing the same kind of thing? further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Not as bad as I thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Not as bad as I thought Yeah, main difference I see is that it's not as amped up. Not too bad, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The +NAO strongly argues for it coming in close to the coast, but also that it leaves early and doesn't stall. I would gladly take that if it meant a 6"+ snowfall for inland areas that have missed out so much lately. Outside of that, with the tendency of erratic modeling lately, I can't get too excited until we're within 36 hours of the event, and even then, as we've seen, nothing is totally set in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I think there is almost a certain possibility that it will snow in the area, as the NWS has pop's at 50-60 percent over their CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Nobody should panic. This is the customary HICCUP run we always get 3 days out. There is nothing new happening here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yeah, main difference I see is that it's not as amped up. Not too bad, IMO. Its a light to moderate hit better for sothe east and coastal areas verbatim. Im sure it will change and I am actually happier it didnt trend further nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Nobody should panic. This is the customary HICCUP run we always get 3 days out. There is nothing new happening here. well from all reports the new GFS was a bad run too (model hickuop), the Nogapps shifted east too, overall the trends have not been positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Nobody should panic. This is the customary HICCUP run we always get 3 days out. There is nothing new happening here. Once we get closer in you start tossing away the GGEM in favor of the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 well from all reports the new GFS was a bad run too (model hickuop), the Nogapps shifted east too, overall the trends have not been positive The nogaps is a God awful model that mets don't even look at. Have you ever heard it mentioned in a HPC discussion? There is a reason for that. The GGEM has the fourth best verification scores. The number one model for east coast storms is the Euro and it's ensembles and until they back away, there is no trend today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 well from all reports the new GFS was a bad run too (model hickuop), the Nogapps shifted east too, overall the trends have not been positive This happens more often then not. Something about the day 3 timeframe and the 12Z run...always a herky jerky model diversion accross the board...then everything pretty much self corrects by 00Z. I'm telling you...this has come to be expected. I'm actually still worried about a brief changeover to sleet here coastal NJ for a period. Look at the WRF (NAM)...it's looking to keep this thing right along the coast just beyond the 84 hour timeframe, as the PVA rotates in and the pressures drop off quickly. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 SREF members are really strong. http://www.meteo.psu...z/srefloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This happens more often then not. Something about the day 3 timeframe and the 12Z run...always a herky jerky model diversion accross the board...then everything pretty much self corrects by 00Z. I'm telling you...this has come to be expected. I'm actually still worried about a brief changeover to sleet here coastal NJ for a period. Look at the WRF (NAM)...it's looking to keep this thing right along the coast just beyond the 84 hour timeframe, as the PVA rotates in and the pressures drop off quickly. . The fact that the only model really bringing this inland and making it a coast hugger is the NAM, and the NAM derived models (SREFs and DGEX) probably argues that it's overdoing the amplitude of the system and a further out solution is better. But at 3-4 days out, anything could change really. I also wouldn't put any eggs in the NAM's basket at 84 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Individual Members for the 12z Global Ensemble Forecast System Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 It's OTS on this run. How does the GFS go from being really amplified at one point to a flat wave? This is the 12Z GooFuS @ 84 hours: Because I'm missing something, what exactly is causing this s/w to NOT dig and amplify? Is it that strong jet streak on the H2 frame that's just pushing it? Why doesn't the GFS want this to amplify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Alot of the SREF members are inland. http://www.meteo.psu...z/srefloop.html Yup. Not sure I buy into their soution lock stock and barrel yet...but their finer resolution is more often then not going to do a better job modelling the details of the energy transfer to the coastal low now that we're within 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This is the 12Z GooFuS @ 84 hours: Because I'm missing something, what exactly is causing this s/w to NOT dig and amplify? Is it that strong jet streak on the H2 frame that's just pushing it? Why doesn't the GFS want this to amplify? main reason to my eyes is because the northern stream s/w is not as strong, which doesnt amplify the trof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 FWIW, Henry M thinks 6+ for the area and JB just posted and he is going with a Major snowstorm for the I-95 corridor. He says 1 foot or more is possible with rain for SJ and Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Coastal track or not, I would be more concerned by the fact that even the model hits don't look all that impressive regarding dynamics and precip. Seems moisture starved and at most a moderate hit in the better case scenarios. Which I'll take for sure, but we're dealing with much uncertainty regarding track as well as what the impact will be evn if the track works out for many. Because of this I would keep expectations to more of the "chance of some snow" variety than I would a big snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 As usual you get one or two runs that are not "Ideal" and alot of folks go into a tizzy. Like somebody else wrote I would be more concerned with Mixing or Changeover than a complete miss at this point..If things keep trending east or weaker over the next day or so than concern will be warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I have seen a few posts that today at 12z everything should have been sampled fully. Not sure I agree with that. At 12z today, the southern vort was over nw mexico, and the nothern stream energy was still in Canada. These are notoriously bad sampling area, especially NW mexico. 00Z tonight and then one more cycle at 12z tomorrow would be a better target than 12z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 FWIW, Henry M thinks 6+ for the area and JB just posted and he is going with a Major snowstorm for the I-95 corridor. He says 1 foot or more is possible with rain for SJ and Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The fact that the only model really bringing this inland and making it a coast hugger is the NAM, and the NAM derived models (SREFs and DGEX) probably argues that it's overdoing the amplitude of the system and a further out solution is better. But at 3-4 days out, anything could change really. I also wouldn't put any eggs in the NAM's basket at 84 hours out. I agree...and that's where I'm holding onto hope...because frankly if they were to verify I'd be in big trouble with a big time changeover. Like I mentioned, I'm not buying this sloution. I'm making the point that there is almost always a 3 day anomolous hiccup in the medium range suite in these situations...and that there is good evidence this thing's going to remain alot closer to the coast and be a bit stronger and more widespread than folks might think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 main reason to my eyes is because the northern stream s/w is not as strong, which doesnt amplify the trof Thats what Bastardi just said GFS is on crack on a special Saturday video where he warned NYC santiation to be on the lookout for a major storm Tues/Wed. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Thats what Bastardi just said GFS is on crack on a special Saturday video where he warned NYC santiation to be on the lookout for a major storm Tues/Wed. Rossi thats a bold statement to the city of NYC......how bad will it be if he is wrong???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 It's not that bold given most major model guidance outside the OP GFS. And its not like he's calling for 2 feet. Keep in mind a major snowfall is 6"+ thats a bold statement to the city of NYC......how bad will it be if he is wrong???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 the euro has started its out to hr 36, ill start updating once closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GGEM Looks like a general 050 (+) for the nyc/nj area, same in phly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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