IsentropicLift Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I wouldn't get too caught up with the gfs if you had to pick one of the majors to be a big outlier that's a good choice have to love the clustering of the other models. WSW tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 What a difference between the SREF, ETA,RSM,NAM vs GFS. some of those are bringing the storm right into SNJ as the capturing occurs, no doubt philly metro gets precip problems with that track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I wouldn't get too caught up with the gfs if you had to pick one of the majors to be a big outlier that's a good choice have to love the clustering of the other models. WSW tomorrow? Maybe in the southern areas, including DC and Baltimore, however, they will wait until sunday night or monday afternoon for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Ask HPC if the Euro, NAM, SREF, GGEM, NOGAPS, and UKMET are in error at intialization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I heard that the Ukie is east, just like the GFS. Anyone can confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The OTS option is almost off the table, I think. GFS is completely on its own and at odds with almost every one of its ensembles. Every other model blossoms the storm into much more. The question is more if the storm hugs the coast or stays far enough out to keep everyone snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I heard that the Ukie is east, just like the GFS. Anyone can confirm? Last nights did trend east and less amp'd from its 12z run prior on Fri. GGEM trended east as well but was still a very nice hit. The ensembles remain the red flag for the gfs being too east. It would be nice to build a consensus today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_096m.gif how do i post map instead of linking? Save the image locally...attach...then reply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I heard that the Ukie is east, just like the GFS. Anyone can confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I heard that the Ukie is east, just like the GFS. Anyone can confirm? Yes, but by 96 the 500mb low is closed, so it's headed in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Wow, it's transfering way further south than the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 What a difference between the SREF, ETA,RSM,NAM vs GFS. and the NAM, EURO, NOGAPS, EURO ENS, CMC, GFS ENS vs GFS. The GFS is being the GFS, complete outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The OTS option is almost off the table, I think. GFS is completely on its own and at odds with almost every one of its ensembles. Every other model blossoms the storm into much more. The question is more if the storm hugs the coast or stays far enough out to keep everyone snow. OTS is still very much a viable possibility. 72 hours our or so, is far enough out. Remember the GFS caught the Boxing day blizzard at 48 hours. So don't rule out an solution atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 NOGAPS shifted a little east w/ later strengthening, but it remains consistent overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 OTS is still very much a viable possibility. 72 hours our or so, is far enough out. Remember the GFS caught the Boxing day blizzard at 48 hours. So don't rule out an solution atm. I just don't see this going ots. The NAO is rising to near neutral or just slightly positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The OTS option is almost off the table, I think. GFS is completely on its own and at odds with almost every one of its ensembles. Every other model blossoms the storm into much more. The question is more if the storm hugs the coast or stays far enough out to keep everyone snow. Seasonal trends would favor far enough out to sea. Hoping though for a big event here. Artic air is rushing in from the west that would turn ratios higher especially back here to possibly 15:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Wow, it's transfering way further south than the other models. Yeah but look at what it's doing with h5 out west.....we'll be fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Seasonal trends would favor far enough out to sea. Hoping though for a big event here. Artic air is rushing in from the west that would turn ratios higher especially back here to possibly 15:1 The +NAO strongly argues for it coming in close to the coast, but also that it leaves early and doesn't stall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Nogaps shifted slightly east. The storm blows up right near the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The GFS ensemble mean is pretty good.. it looks just inside the benchmark, but it is a fairly weak system passing through still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 12Z UKMET looks nice. West enough for a decent hit along the coast, but East enough for no mixing issues... like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The precip totals for the GFS ensemble mean are about .50-.75 from NYC west and .75 - 1.00 east of NYC with some 1.00 - 1.25 in eastern Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The GFS ensemble mean is pretty good.. it looks just inside the benchmark, but it is a fairly weak system passing through still. It blows up in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The GFS ensemble mean is pretty good.. it looks just inside the benchmark, but it is a fairly weak system passing through still. where is that big arctic outbreak or is that off the table now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 where is that big arctic outbreak or is that off the table now? it comes down around hr 200 give or take a day or two, behind a cutter or coastal thats yet to be determinded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I still think it's good that we have some offshore models with this storm, I do not want a coastal hugger, I'd rather have the low offshore enough so we don't have precip issues. Odd looking long range too from the gfs, the cold air isn't rushing south but rather hugging the northern 1/3 of the CONUS. That's not good if you want arctic air but it that does make the pattern stormy. After a cutter, you have a lot of cold air in the northern half of the CONUS with a huge Pacific connection giving us big overrunning opportunities, not to mention the blocking returns to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 12Z UKMET looks nice. West enough for a decent hit along the coast, but East enough for no mixing issues... like the Euro. Do yo uhave a link for the 12z. I only have links to 72 and the later panels come out around 1pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GGEM is east of the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GGEM is east of the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GGEM is east of the 0z run. Just grazes coastal areas with good precip and moderate snow further back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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