Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

NYC/PHL Potential Jan 11-14 Event Discussion


Rib

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Oh no, we could be looking at a coastal hugger which would be a total disaster. I hope things change for the better and not get any worse than they are now. I hate the rain, it it can't snow, then I'd rather it be dry and sunny.

Many models are now jumping on a hugger which is horrible for most of NJ and NYC, but congrats PA. It would be a redemption storm, bye bye snow hole.

well it's about time we get some love back here in central PA. can't even begin to tell you how frustrating it was last year to watch every storm dump mega snows on areas 100 or so miles to the south and east. but if this does end up being a coastal hugger I do feel for those that will change over. I've been there many times over my life and it sucks. I would like to see everyone get hit with a large snow storm, but that rarely happens.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

can someone post exact qpf amounts on the euro? i think it would be a good idea to post euro precip in terms of exact amounts all the time, anyway. such as "6 hour precip at 144 shows the .10 line near nyc and ttn, with the .25 line from acy to sby"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I like the setup with the 1028 High in Canada.

And as the energy completes its transfer a new 850 will take over and the coastal areas would be saved. It would be good for all area.

Look at 500, the flow off the coast is aligned so that the SLP will likely just stay far enough to keep coastal areas frozen.

nam_500_084m.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

can someone post exact qpf amounts on the euro? i think it would be a good idea to post euro precip in terms of exact amounts all the time, anyway. such as "6 hour precip at 144 shows the .10 line near nyc and ttn, with the .25 line from acy to sby"

Off the 0z euro, or are you saying for future cases? Or are you saying instead of lgt to mod precip say .1-.25?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

0z euro

and future cases

ok....

hr 90 has .01-.1 from holmdel to quakertown to sce south....1-.25 is m/d line through south jers

hr96 .01-.1 eli to danbury to rome ny....1-.25 holdmel to quakertown to sce.....25-.5 acy to phl to balt to dc to southern delmarva

hr 102 .1-.25 ne ct to hfd line....25-.5 phl to rdg to montrose pa to pughkeepsie to hfd to e li

hr 108 .01-.1 del marva sjerz...1-.25 acy to phl to rdg to bgm to saranac lake.....25-.5 nyc and li to alb on northeast.

hr 114 .01-.1 nyc and central and wester li....1-.25 ct and eli

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ok....

hr 90 has .01-.1 from holmdel to quakertown to sce south....1-.25 is m/d line through south jers

hr96 .01-.1 eli to danbury to rome ny....1-.25 holdmel to quakertown to sce.....25-.5 acy to phl to balt to dc to southern delmarva

hr 102 .1-.25 ne ct to hfd line....25-.5 phl to rdg to montrose pa to pughkeepsie to hfd to e li

hr 108 .01-.1 del marva sjerz...1-.25 acy to phl to rdg to bgm to saranac lake.....25-.5 nyc and li to alb on northeast.

hr 114 .01-.1 nyc and central and wester li....1-.25 ct and eli

What was PHL total?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like we can add the NAM to the list of models showing a coastal hugger.

It appears the storm track may be resolved rather shortly, perhaps in the next day or so, which is a relief given how the models have played around with the storm track recently. Obviously temps/precips will still be played around with, but it is nice to resolve the storm track a little earlier than previous storms.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS still mysteriously flattens the s/w moving across the northern half of the country.

Well, this was a known bias of this model, but I am not sure if it was addressed in its last upgrade.

Its an eastern outlier given where the GGEM, EURO, NOGAPS, NAM, and SREFS are.

Its ensembles last night were 100% west of the OP and almost in complete agreement.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

nice zoomed in view of the NAM.

Excellent cold NE flow in respond to the high in cananda. Also note the low taking shape off the coast and how cold the low levels are.

thats decieving, look at a sounding at hr 84, there is a big warm wedge around the 800mb zone

this is a sounding around vineland nj, between phl and acy, note the warm push above 850

NAM_218_2011010812_F84_39.5000N_75.0000W.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

thats decieving, look at a sounding at hr 84, there is a big warm wedge around the 800mb zone

this is a sounding around vineland nj, between phl and acy, note the warm push above 850

Yes, there is a warm push to the S and East, but I think the transfer of energy to the natural baroclinic zone off of the coast would get rid of that wedge.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...