benfica356 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Oh no, we could be looking at a coastal hugger which would be a total disaster. I hope things change for the better and not get any worse than they are now. I hate the rain, it it can't snow, then I'd rather it be dry and sunny. Many models are now jumping on a hugger which is horrible for most of NJ and NYC, but congrats PA. It would be a redemption storm, bye bye snow hole. well it's about time we get some love back here in central PA. can't even begin to tell you how frustrating it was last year to watch every storm dump mega snows on areas 100 or so miles to the south and east. but if this does end up being a coastal hugger I do feel for those that will change over. I've been there many times over my life and it sucks. I would like to see everyone get hit with a large snow storm, but that rarely happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet-Phase Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Sorry for the question in this thread for the moderators...are there any planned radio shows this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I do not think the NAM would be a hugger, it will be close to the coast, but sifficently out to sea for the coastal areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I do not think the NAM would be a hugger, it will be close to the coast, but sifficently out to sea for the coastal areas I like the setup with the 1028 High in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 can someone post exact qpf amounts on the euro? i think it would be a good idea to post euro precip in terms of exact amounts all the time, anyway. such as "6 hour precip at 144 shows the .10 line near nyc and ttn, with the .25 line from acy to sby" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I like the setup with the 1028 High in Canada. And as the energy completes its transfer a new 850 will take over and the coastal areas would be saved. It would be good for all area. Look at 500, the flow off the coast is aligned so that the SLP will likely just stay far enough to keep coastal areas frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 can someone post exact qpf amounts on the euro? i think it would be a good idea to post euro precip in terms of exact amounts all the time, anyway. such as "6 hour precip at 144 shows the .10 line near nyc and ttn, with the .25 line from acy to sby" Off the 0z euro, or are you saying for future cases? Or are you saying instead of lgt to mod precip say .1-.25? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Off the 0z euro, or are you saying for future cases? Or are you saying instead of lgt to mod precip say .1-.25? 0z euro and future cases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 0z euro and future cases ok.... hr 90 has .01-.1 from holmdel to quakertown to sce south....1-.25 is m/d line through south jers hr96 .01-.1 eli to danbury to rome ny....1-.25 holdmel to quakertown to sce.....25-.5 acy to phl to balt to dc to southern delmarva hr 102 .1-.25 ne ct to hfd line....25-.5 phl to rdg to montrose pa to pughkeepsie to hfd to e li hr 108 .01-.1 del marva sjerz...1-.25 acy to phl to rdg to bgm to saranac lake.....25-.5 nyc and li to alb on northeast. hr 114 .01-.1 nyc and central and wester li....1-.25 ct and eli Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 ok.... hr 90 has .01-.1 from holmdel to quakertown to sce south....1-.25 is m/d line through south jers hr96 .01-.1 eli to danbury to rome ny....1-.25 holdmel to quakertown to sce.....25-.5 acy to phl to balt to dc to southern delmarva hr 102 .1-.25 ne ct to hfd line....25-.5 phl to rdg to montrose pa to pughkeepsie to hfd to e li hr 108 .01-.1 del marva sjerz...1-.25 acy to phl to rdg to bgm to saranac lake.....25-.5 nyc and li to alb on northeast. hr 114 .01-.1 nyc and central and wester li....1-.25 ct and eli What was PHL total? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 What was PHL total? phl .5-.75 nyc .75 li- .75-1 jersey .5-.75 jerz shore .75 phl north and west burbs .5-.75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 phl .5-.75 nyc .75 li- .75-1 jersey .5-.75 jerz shore .75 phl north and west burbs .5-.75 Wait, if Philly was in the .25-.5 for 2 frame then .1-.25 wouldn't it be .60-1.25"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Wait, if Philly was in the .25-.5 for 2 frame then .1-.25 wouldn't it be .60-1.25"? no, cause you dont no whats the qpf from it...those are just range breakdowns..phl could be .3 and then .25 for the accum precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 no, cause you dont no whats the qpf from it...those are just range breakdowns..phl could be .3 and then .25 for the accum precip. Gotcha Sorry about that haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 nice zoomed in view of the NAM. Excellent cold NE flow in respond to the high in cananda. Also note the low taking shape off the coast and how cold the low levels are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 killer block. 50/50 strong and in good position. big strong 1028H nosing down providing fresh supply of cold air.......so a coastal hugger which changes the PHL, NYC over is very slim imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 phl .5-.75 nyc .75 li- .75-1 jersey .5-.75 jerz shore .75 phl north and west burbs .5-.75 Thanks Tom. I was looking on the accu pro site and came up with the same for NJ/NYC basically about 0.75 and more east of i-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 isn't the gfs looking kinda fast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looks like we can add the NAM to the list of models showing a coastal hugger. It appears the storm track may be resolved rather shortly, perhaps in the next day or so, which is a relief given how the models have played around with the storm track recently. Obviously temps/precips will still be played around with, but it is nice to resolve the storm track a little earlier than previous storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS still mysteriously flattens the s/w moving across the northern half of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 It's OTS on this run. How does the GFS go from being really amplified at one point to a flat wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS still mysteriously flattens the s/w moving across the northern half of the country. Well, this was a known bias of this model, but I am not sure if it was addressed in its last upgrade. Its an eastern outlier given where the GGEM, EURO, NOGAPS, NAM, and SREFS are. Its ensembles last night were 100% west of the OP and almost in complete agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 nice zoomed in view of the NAM. Excellent cold NE flow in respond to the high in cananda. Also note the low taking shape off the coast and how cold the low levels are. thats decieving, look at a sounding at hr 84, there is a big warm wedge around the 800mb zone this is a sounding around vineland nj, between phl and acy, note the warm push above 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS all on it's on now. Can't wait to see the ensembles come in with a huge hit again. There's something up with that OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Are models supposed to have have better data on the 12z runs today? I heard someone saying that about a day or so ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 thats decieving, look at a sounding at hr 84, there is a big warm wedge around the 800mb zone this is a sounding around vineland nj, between phl and acy, note the warm push above 850 Yes, there is a warm push to the S and East, but I think the transfer of energy to the natural baroclinic zone off of the coast would get rid of that wedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 gfs is really flat. when the primary gets to pa, the secondary nevr rlly forms. verbatim its a minor-mod snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_096m.gif how do i post map instead of linking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 What a difference between the SREF, ETA,RSM,NAM vs GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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