atownwxwatcher Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 06 Z GFS coming more closer to the party of the rest of the guidance but not quite solidly there yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Kaboom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I believe this is now 11 runs in a row on the NOGAPS This is 6 Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 HPC THE TOTAL DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONSPREAD REMAINS QUITE LARGE WITH MANY ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERSACTUALLY OVER LAND. THUS...GIVEN THE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS RECOMMENDA CONSENSUS APPROACH WHICH IS ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWFWHICH ALSO AGREES WITH THE GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS.JAMES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Where were the mods last night? Reading and then scrolling past the ALEX/psuhoffman debate got a little bit old. I thought this was a thread for the UPCOMING storm NEXT WEEK, not the NESIS rating of the Dec 26th storm. That stuff should have been split into it's own thread if not deleted outright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Where were the mods last night? Reading and then scrolling past the ALEX/psuhoffman debate got a little bit old. I thought this was a thread for the UPCOMING storm NEXT WEEK, not the NESIS rating of the Dec 26th storm. That stuff should have been split into it's own thread if not deleted outright. I agree... I pointed out that there was a NESIS thread in the main forum for that. To be fair, the argument started before I even got online and I think he was already pissed off at someone else and thus forgot about the other thread lol. Oh well it's over now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I believe this is now 11 runs in a row on the NOGAPS This is 6 Z The good thing there is it keeps the freezing line off the coast up here. Its the NoGaps though, so trends still need to be monitored carefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I agree... I pointed out that there was a NESIS thread in the main forum for that. To be fair, the argument started before I even got online and I think he was already pissed off at someone else and thus forgot about the other thread lol. Oh well it's over now. Thank goodness... Just to be clear, this wasn't to call you (or him) out. There was nothing wrong with the debate, just the thread it ended up in, and the fact that the mods didn't move to the appropriate one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Thank goodness... Just to be clear, this wasn't to call you (or him) out. There was nothing wrong with the debate, just the thread it ended up in, and the fact that the mods didn't move to the appropriate one. Oh I know lol... we're always cool. I have a thick skin unlike some of the little kids that exhibit their weeniesm and apparently someone was bragging about this last storm and it got on his nerves. And then some other person tried to call me dumb and I was going to ask him ok if youre so smart, tell me whats in my avatar-- a thousand bucks says you dont know what it is, let alone have the brain power to design it. LOL all downhill from there. And after that I just think it was a failure to communicate. The funny thing was in the middle of all of that the Euro was showing a monster hit (for all of us.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 shocked no one mentioned the 6z ensembles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Not shocked they came in westward lol. Hey, are they even further west than the EURO ensembles? ALL modeling ensembles seem to have been coming in further west than their OPs over the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Good trends it seems overnight. Let's remember that a couple days ago Rainshadow told us that most , if not all, the players would be in the data field come 12z today. The next set of runs should tell us a lot. I expect a surprise or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Wow..the new SREF's are crazy. Looks good if you're away from the shore. How far west does the qpf get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Just like I said yesterday in one of my posts the nogaps showing a hit for atleast 10 runs in a row def shows something being its more often than not out to lunch in comparison to the more reliable global models. The potential of this storm to be a big one is there just gotta get the northern/southern stream jet to phase at the right time and the ec will be in businesss. The models tonight showed a clear westward trend and the low deepening enough that the rain/snow line "shouldn't" be a problem for the coastal areas as of yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 shocked no one mentioned the 6z ensembles... Wow, that's a massive hit. I wouldn't be shocked if the models trend stronger as we get closer to the event. It all depends on where the low bombs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Where were the mods last night? Reading and then scrolling past the ALEX/psuhoffman debate got a little bit old. I thought this was a thread for the UPCOMING storm NEXT WEEK, not the NESIS rating of the Dec 26th storm. That stuff should have been split into it's own thread if not deleted outright. Voyager - looks like we may get our first real snowstorm on tuesday. Are you excited about it yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 How far west does the qpf get? A real good sign that we (LV) are going to get hammered is that whenever Memphis, Tn is under a winter storm watch, we get heavy snowfalls two 2 days later. Works just about every time since the 1980's. They went under a watch this last night. Bring it on baby I said this yesterday in another thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Hopefully all the models remain the same with the better data in the 12z runs today. They made a huge jump to almost total agreement last night, with the GFS/GGEM being outliers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I can't remember when the NOGAPS showed a hit in the NE for what? 10 runs in a row now? The damn thing is always OTS or suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I can't remember when the NOGAPS showed a hit in the NE for what? 10 runs in a row now? The damn thing is always OTS or suppressed. Various atmospheric patterns play into various bias' of the models. Its entirely possible that whatever pieces are going into thisstorm just fit well with the NOGAPS' physics. We have seen this in other storms with other models. Now, could this just be blind luck? Maybe. But someone pointed out that the NOGAPS' verificaiton scores vs the other globals isn't that much worse, and it has been upgraded and tweaked over the years, its not just a dead model like the old eta being run on a Packard Bell in a basement. I'm pulling for ya Gaps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Here is the SREF at 87 hours The precip map looks weird though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Here are the individual members Several inland runner solutions and really nothing too far off that coast. A few very strong members too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Voyager - looks like we may get our first real snowstorm on tuesday. Are you excited about it yet? Not until the flakes start flying. In other words, I'm in the "I'll believe it when I see it" stage right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 FWIW, the RSM and ETA have a coastal hugger. It's 87 hours out, so take it with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Here are the individual members Several inland runner solutions and really nothing too far off that coast. A few very strong members too There in their long range....so I wouldnt be worried about a changeover. The euro ensembles are now in 100% agreement with the op euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Is it me or does the the storm now look like a big hit for N. NJ / NYC when before it was mostly a hit phila south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Oh no, we could be looking at a coastal hugger which would be a total disaster. I hope things change for the better and not get any worse than they are now. I hate the rain, it it can't snow, then I'd rather it be dry and sunny. Many models are now jumping on a hugger which is horrible for most of NJ and NYC, but congrats PA. It would be a redemption storm, bye bye snow hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Many models are now jumping on a hugger which is horrible for most of NJ and NYC, but congrats PA. It would be a redemption storm, bye bye snow hole. Only the RSM, ETA and DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Melodramatic much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looks like we can add the NAM to the list of models showing a coastal hugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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