A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 but thankfully for everyone here you are completely objective and neutral about this Actually, if you had read the NESIS thread in the main forum, you would have seen that-- but you chose to bring that up in here for some reason.... why? A few days ago I stated in there that if you go by areal coverage its obvious that storm was the bigger one. My personal preferences for intensity and wind aside. Besides which, when you experience 60-70 mph winds in a raging snowstorm, youll understand what it feels like to have 5-6 foot drifts that blocking you in, repeatedly... hours after you shovel, and how bad not having power for hours on end in a snowstorm can be. Wind can and does have a severe impact.... but that isnt my point here. The fact is, you should have read the posts in the NESIS thread and posted there instead of going off in another region's subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 also fwiw, the low gets captured at h5 at hr 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Wow...still hammering the area at 108. SNE buried too Souns similar to last night ggem and west and deeper than tonight ggem near the mid atlantic. Great trends on the euro and well depicted on its prior ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 is thisa "huge hit' or a decent event tombo seems to indicate a strong coastal Im hearing about 1" qpf for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Im hearing about 1" qpf for most. its pretty fast moving, prob a 5-10 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 If this storm comes out like the nogaps has shown, it must be named the Nogaps Storm. LOL Seriosly. NOGAPS scores a coup...the friggin NOGAPS. ITs been locked in for like 8-9 runs so far. crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The 12z Euro ensembles really posed a red flag for its 12z OP counterpart, and tonight's Euro run shows the results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet-Phase Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Wow...I would love to lock in the Euro! So we have the Euro, GGEM as big hits. Good hit from Ukmet and the GFS continues to trend west! How confident is everyone at this point as this storm looks like it's taking shape seems to be gaining momentum..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Hows it lookin for us up here bro?? Pls give me good news.. lol Well, I would be happy for it to nudge inland a little for selfish reasons lol, but the precip shield is pretty broad so it hits the HV pretty good.. It is a nice hit - Probably somewhere close to 0.75 for all areas of the HV. I think this i a solid run for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 You keep saying not my forum but I live closer to Philadelphia then I do DC and this argument is entirely subjective and I stated such up front but for some reason you can not handle when someone has a different opinion about things. More scary then that is that sometimes people here can not handle when FACTS supported by evidence and data does not agree with their misconceptions. Dude-- that wasnt the only reason I said to put it in the main forum. The other reason was that we already have a discussion in the main forum about it and if you had read through that discussion you would have seen that I and several other people you are arguing with agreed that the storm from last year should be rated higher because of much more areal coverage. I also asked how much population factors into it and no one seemed to have a direct answer. Its not about having a different opinion-- its an issue of we already have a discussion about this. And when I talked about intensity/wind, I was talking about personal preference (but also about how crippling wind can be, which several people agreed in that thread) HOWEVER, that wasnt about how the storm should be ranked, but personal preference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 its pretty fast moving, prob a 5-10 storm unless of course, the trends continue and it gets captured earlier im not getting greedy tho, this is a solid secs on the euro in the medium range...see you guys at 3am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Can you supply us with some qpf amounts porfavor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Actually, if you had read the NESIS thread in the main forum, you would have seen that-- but you chose to bring that up in here for some reason.... why? A few days ago I stated in there that if you go by areal coverage its obvious that storm was the bigger one. My personal preferences for intensity and wind aside. Besides which, when you experience 60-70 mph winds in a raging snowstorm, youll understand what it feels like to have 5-6 foot drifts that blocking you in, repeatedly... hours after you shovel, and how bad not having power for hours on end in a snowstorm can be. Wind can and does have a severe impact.... but that isnt my point here. The fact is, you should have read the posts in the NESIS thread and posted there instead of going off in another region's subforum. TRUCE I forgot about the NESIS thread and didn't mean for this to get this out of hand, its starting to detract from the serious discussions and that was not my intent. One post kind of grated on my nerves and I made my opinions known that's all. We can continue this debate in PM or in the NESIS thread but I do not want to muck up this thread anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 unless of course, the trends continue and it gets captured earlier im not getting greedy tho, this is a solid secs on the euro in the medium range...see you guys at 3am moderate hit (yawns) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 moderate hit (yawns) On a trending model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 TRUCE I forgot about the NESIS thread and didn't mean for this to get this out of hand, its starting to detract from the serious discussions and that was not my intent. One post kind of grated on my nerves and I made my opinions known that's all. We can continue this debate in PM or in the NESIS thread but I do not want to muck up this thread anymore. lol I had/have no argument with you, Im just frustrated that we're talking about the same thing yet again. I dont think you actually posted in that thread, but I remember talking with gymengineer and after I looked at the coverage map, I said something to the effect of "this should be rated a 2 if you go by areal coverage but 3 if you go by population affected." Honestly, I didnt think they'd rate it higher than any of the storms from last year, especially when Kocin said on FB that it should be a 2. Of course, when I saw it was a 3 and yet they didnt include any of the 30+ inch amts from jersey I said it should have been a high 3 BTW how did this get started in the first place? I saw the argument was already raging when I got on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Glenn's prediction for Sat.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 FYI, there is a really ugly torch for everyone (including me in DCA and up to SNE) at 240...but thats just on tonight's OP run. Its because there is a cutter and the cold blast is behind it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 FYI, there is a really ugly torch for everyone (including me in DCA and up to SNE) at 240... They seem to think that the cold will return after a cutter at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 FYI, there is a really ugly torch for everyone (including me in DCA and up to SNE) at 240... Yea, its right ahead of the arctic front. Pops it to 60 from nyc south. But i wouldn't worry, 12z euro had a snowstorm for us at that timeframe lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 They seem to think that the cold will return after a cutter at the time. It will most def... but its not a pretty run. Dendrite says 2m temps are in the 60s in the Ohio Valley 12z was completely different though... so who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Great trends on the Euro and GFS tonight. Seeing the Euro be a nice hit definitely increases confidence in a decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 FYI, there is a really ugly torch for everyone (including me in DCA and up to SNE) at 240...but thats just on tonight's OP run. Its because there is a cutter and the cold blast is behind it Yeah there's going to be an arctic front, at least if you believe the GFS/ECM have any idea what they are talking about. Where the wave forms on that arctic front is going to determine whether we see a torch. With a cutter that strong, though, it should bring in some nasty cold with that PV sitting over Canada. Also have a nice west-based -NAO at 240 hrs on ECM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 new SREF's look prettyyy nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 new SREF's look prettyyy nice. A bit warm, but that is 87 hours out. But I always said this would be a coastal hugger, so there you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Wow..the new SREF's are crazy. Looks good if you're away from the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 A bit warm, but that is 87 hours out. But I always said this would be a coastal hugger, so there you go. Looks just like the Euro http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/03/images/sref_85t_087s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 A bit warm, but that is 87 hours out. But I always said this would be a coastal hugger, so there you go. being two towns over from you"northport" eve the sref's 2m at 87 suggest we are fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Waiting on the Euro ensembles..will be out in 5-10 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Check that...I just got them now. The Euro ensembles are a huge hit. 998mb surface low is southeast of Montauk. Cold enough for everybody and a good amount of precipitation too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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