LVblizzard Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 It's unbelievable how consistent the NOGAPS has been. I don't think it's wavered 100 miles for its past 6 runs or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 ggem basically like the gfs at hr 96, maybe alittle further nw. Not sure if its going to get pulled back towards the coast post 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS Ensembles a tremendous hit...moreso than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 0z gfs ens mean is hse to over or just se of the bm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS Ensembles a tremendous hit...moreso than 18z Tremendous, no. Better than 18z, yes. Certainly good for 3-6 " which I would be so happy with Warrants staying up for the Euro tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The big difference regarding the GFS ensembles is the lack of variance in solutions. There are no inland runners on the spaghetti plots. All of them are further northwest and stronger than the OP. A handful have sub 990 lows tracking over the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Tremendous, no. Better than 18z, yes. Certainly good for 3-6 " which I would be so happy with Warrants staying up for the Euro tonight... Check out the spaghetti plots and then tell me they aren't a tremendous hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 If there's a convincing factor that points to a storm on Tuesday, it's that the most inconsistent and progressive model (the NOGAPS) has been consistently the least progressive model. It's not always progressive, nor is it always the farthest east (which is a separate thing) but this myth never dies. The Nogaps verification scores are only slightly below the other globals. If it had such an obvious bias it would be corrected. Yes it's somewhat less reliable and its primary utility is not mid-latitude synoptics, but we can't always point to it when it has a wrapped up solution and say see, this thing has to come west. The situation is much too complex for such basic inferences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 That he has. The fun should be spread around, I want to see a NESIS 4! have you seen this yet? All I asked for was higher than Feb 4-6 2010, wish granted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Here's an example of some of the spaghetti's. The OP isn't on here because it isn't deep enough at that time frame. Courtsey sv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 0z ggem takes a track just like the gfs post hr 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 UKMET looks solid at 72, anyone got it farther out? 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS Ensembles a tremendous hit...moreso than 18z I find it a little weird how the op GFS runs continue to be relative dry and weak at the surface with a broad, low amplitude trof and yet a large percentage of ensemble members develop a stronger, wetter system cycle after cycle. It's not just that the surface low tracks too far offshore, it's the overall lack of upper level dynamics to deepen the low. Precipitation is limited to weak overrunning. The only thing potentially going for the past few operation runs is the moderate duration. I'm looking for a change in the modeling that will generate heavier QPF. And also wondering how/why the ind members manage bigger hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I find it a little weird how the op GFS runs continue to be relative dry and weak at the surface with a broad, low amplitude trof and yet a large percentage of ensemble members develop a stronger, wetter system cycle after cycle. It's not just that the surface low tracks too far offshore, it's the overall lack of upper level dynamics to deepen the low. Precipitation is limited to weak overrunning. The only thing potentially going for the past few operation runs is the moderate duration. I'm looking for a change in the modeling that will generate heavier QPF. And also wondering how/why the ind members manage bigger hits. +5 aaaaaaah, exactly my thoughts/concerns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 UKMET actually looks like it ends up going a bit east of the GFS by 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 That looks like a 997 either just on or just tucked under Cape cod which is west of the GFS IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Tombo, what's the link to that site? I used to have it in my bookmarks but lost it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I'll take that GGEM solution any day. Where do I sign? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Tombo, what's the link to that site? I used to have it in my bookmarks but lost it. i dont think this is the proper site, but thats where i get it http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RkTec Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 LVBlizzard here is the site I use for those images: GGEM PCPN Type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GGEM is a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 have you seen this yet? All I asked for was higher than Feb 4-6 2010, wish granted. the fact that a storm that impacted such a small area with truly historic snowfall is ranked higher then a storm with one of the most massive coverage areas of 20" plus snowfall and with an area of 30" plus snowfall equal in size to the Dec 26h 20" snowfall area is just proof of how flawed and skewed towards population centers that scale is. That ranking system is useless because it weights storms based on how many people are affected not how severe the storm actually was. A 10" snowstorm that hits NYC would rank higher then a 30" snowstorm that hits rural NC. Maybe I am alone in this but when I focus on a storm, its the storm, not the people that happen to live under it that is what interests me. Why you would root for a storm with such a small area of influence over a storm that was truly historic and one of the biggest snowstorms in the history of the mid atlantic is what confuses me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GGEM is a bomb. That's yesterday's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 UKMET actually looks like it ends up going a bit east of the GFS by 120 Do you have a link, perchance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GGEM is a bomb. Last nights image! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GGEM is a bomb. old map. its posted earlier in the thread. Still a hit, but not as robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 That's yesterday's run. Oh whoops, my bad. 12:36 am does crazy things to your head lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Last nights image! lol.. ughh what does it take these dayz to get a coastal hugger around here?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 the fact that a storm that impacted such a small area with truly historic snowfall is ranked higher then a storm with one of the most massive coverage areas of 20" plus snowfall and with an area of 30" plus snowfall equal in size to the Dec 26h 20" snowfall area is just proof of how flawed and skewed towards population centers that scale is. That ranking system is useless because it weights storms based on how many people are affected not how severe the storm actually was. A 10" snowstorm that hits NYC would rank higher then a 30" snowstorm that hits rural NC. Maybe I am alone in this but when I focus on a storm, its the storm, not the people that happen to live under it that is what interests me. Why you would root for a storm with such a small area of influence over a storm that was truly historic and one of the biggest snowstorms in the history of the mid atlantic is what confuses me. I see what you are saying, but: 1 - The scale admits freely that it is skewed toward population centers. 2 - The scale's goals are impact. 20" in NYC is more disruptive than 20" in Mount Pocono. Maybe there should also be a climo/readiness factor included... i.e., BOS is much better suited to handle 20" than DC because its much more likely to get 20", so there should be some skewing in that way as well. Right now I believe it scales population centers equally regardless of climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 lol.. ughh what does it take these dayz to get a coastal hugger around here?? We just had one 2 weeks ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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