Zelocita Weather Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The coastal tracks remains very good for this area. The way we get into precip issues is how long the primary holds on, if there is a primary that shoots up west of the apps. You can see on a couple of the ens memebers the coastal track is good but the primary holds on longer and brings mixing issues into the area. Regardless it looks like the max snow with this system would be in the 4-8"/5-10" range. There is no model that supports any more than that right now, but that would be fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I Regardless it looks like the max snow with this system would be in the 4-8"/5-10" range. There is no model that supports any more than that right now, but that would be fine with me. Actually I disagree if this system comes to fruition it has the capability of dropping double figures as alot of the ensembles and a couple of models have shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Come one people, we've seen this before. The gfs always loses the storm or does crazy things with it in the Day 4-5 range only to bring it back in Day 2-3. When the Nogaps is that far west and says it, you know the gfs will be changing its views in the future. Again,, I'm actually glad we have models further east, I would not want something like the DGEX shows to verify otherwise we're looking at 33-34 and heavy rain. The 18Z GFS is likely having issues on the storm track because of that 2nd low it develops right behind it anyway....this is definitely the GFS bad range right now but the Euro is also generally east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The 18Z GFS is likely having issues on the storm track because of that 2nd low it develops right behind it anyway....this is definitely the GFS bad range right now but the Euro is also generally east. and South East of it's ens mean ( a good portions of the individual members) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 ECM means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I, for one, am pulling for you on this one Voyager. You've been gracious and patient, I hope you can cash with this system... Thanks much. I just want to see one storm where EVERYONE cashes in. I guess that's kind of rare though, as when inland areas get a major snowfall, most times I-95 and east has p-type issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 What do you think Steve? We can pull this one out?? How did you do today? approx. 2-3" around here. Only school district not to close in Luzerne Cty! Lock it up. That's just about perfect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 What do you think Steve? We can pull this one out?? How did you do today? approx. 2-3" around here. Only school district not to close in Luzerne Cty! 2.75" here this morning, Pete. New forecasts for tomorrow have 2-4 here with a WWA. Seems like CTP is going off the 0z NAM with about a 15:1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 nam, looks flatter at hr 60 at h5, the s/w doesn't look as potent causing a flattening of the hgts along the ec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 nam, looks flatter at hr 60 at h5, the s/w doesn't look as potent causing a flattening of the hgts along the ec. yes, but this may be a good thing. The surface low from the southern vort max appears to just sit off the coast. As the new H5 energy digs in from the NW, it may be able to interact with that energy spawn a new fresh slp off the coast and then capture that and pull it up the coast. Its a solution the gfs was showing the other night was it was showing a nice hit from DC to Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 yes, but this may be a good thing. The surface low from the southern vort max appears to just sit off the coast. As the new H5 energy digs in from the NW, it may be able to interact with that energy spawn a new fresh slp off the coast and then capture that and pull it up the coast. Its a solution the gfs was showing the other night was it was showing a nice hit from DC to Boston. are the ggem,nogaps, ukie showing this to?..nvm i just looked the ggem, does have what you say. Only issue with that is, your asking for a stronger low in the plains, which down the road would translate to a primary up west of the apps until the coastal gets going, a two pronged type storm which are tricky around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 are the ggem,nogaps, ukie showing this to? Haven't looked that closely if they are, it was just something that stuck out tonight on the nam and i remember it from the good gfs run two nights ago, but I do like the look of the nam at 84 hours. The old surface low is still sitting off the carolina coast and the H5 is consolidating over the midwest. Also the 700 low is getting organized and I think heights are ampliying out ahead of the trough and the next few panels would bring that up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 are the ggem,nogaps, ukie showing this to?..nvm i just looked the ggem, does have what you say. Only issue with that is, your asking for a stronger low in the plains, which down the road would translate to a primary up west of the apps until the coastal gets going, a two pronged type storm which are tricky around here. yes, that is a danger (see 18z dgex). However, I do believe the block over canada and the departing confluence over the NE will be enough if this solution were to unfold this way. Lots of runs and plenty of time to see. Edit: Looking at it more in depth, and yes, it is the NAM at 84 hours, its setup really looks nice. The block is in a perfect west based position, we have confluence near New Foundland (50/50 low) and this should be good enough to help the 500, 850, and 700 lows move or bowling ball east and not get so far north as to ruin the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Here are the srefs at hr 87, use with caution going with the ggem ukie nogaps solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 2.75" here this morning, Pete. New forecasts for tomorrow have 2-4 here with a WWA. Seems like CTP is going off the 0z NAM with about a 15:1 ratio. Not bad. Very little snow here probably tomorrow but that's ok. Hopefully we cash in with a big storm on tuesday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS looks worse than the NAM @84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 gfs is a good bit frther nw, but just misses the area, more of a coastal scrape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 gfs is a good bit frther nw, but just misses the area, more of a coastal scrape. would you say it is closer than the last couple of runs though?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 would you say it is closer than the last couple of runs though?? yes it trended nw from 18z and 12z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 gfs is a good bit frther nw, but just misses the area, more of a coastal scrape. looks like poo at h5, but we're starting to see the idea of the southern energy simply dissipating well ahead and making this more Plains energy driven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 gfs is a good bit frther nw, but just misses the area, more of a coastal scrape. In past events that's been a good place to be this far out from the event. Let's hope this one trends favorably like some others have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 looks like poo at h5, but we're starting to see the idea of the southern energy simply dissipating well ahead and making this more Plains energy driven yea looking at h5 i thought this was going to be like 18z, but the northern stream trended stronger and helped pull it further nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 looks like poo at h5, but we're starting to see the idea of the southern energy simply dissipating well ahead and making this more Plains energy driven Getting closer. Just need it to develop a bit further SW: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_102l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Getting closer. Just need it to develop a bit further SW: http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_102l.gif Just like the day after Christmas storm when it wasn't until 2+ days out, i don't expect the GFS to have a clue until tomorrow nights 0z run or as late as 12z Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yep you can definitely tell its much more amped at 102 while 108 had a flat storm going out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Still trending..but it looks way better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 A little further NW compared to 18z. One trend over past few days is to track upper low from west further north. Hence development is further NE. If this continues heaviest snow will be in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 it looks as if the gfs is still in a significant trending phase. We should be rooting for a stronger northern stream like the dgex/ggem. In that case there wouldnt be a weak low off the SE coast like the gfs, instead there would be a primary up the ohio valley with a secondary bombing off the coast. Looking forward to the rest of the 00z's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 NOGAPS holds steady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 NOGAPS holds steady If there's a convincing factor that points to a storm on Tuesday, it's that the most inconsistent and progressive model (the NOGAPS) has been consistently the least progressive model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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