tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 12z nogaps, alittle further offshore with the low, but the ULL enhances some of the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 what i mean by the ULL is on the nogaps, you can see the closed off area at h5 over cincy/ky area at hr 132, which then track over/ to the south of us at hr 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 yeah i was gonna post that the NAM was actually way more impressive than the 12z gfs at hr 90, but ya know whoever expects this gfs/euro to consistently show a big storm 6 days out should know better. This pattern is ripe, a ticking timebomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Here's the total liquid..for those at are interested. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/dgex/18zdgexp72156.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looking at that map, it's gonna take an awful lot to get that northern stream s/w to phase in to the southern stream. Heights low across the EC don't show that doing a whole lot, unless it tries to pop it Miller B style with that northern stream feature. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't everything slow down a bit if the northern stream s/w and the southern stream started to phase earlier, allowing more time for the heights to rise along the EC? The 18z has a stronger s/w that seems to interact more with the southern stream than does the 12z. nam 18z at 78 nam 12z at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Its only a snowstorm because accuweather says it is a snowstorm. Remember, any thing over an inch on the road is a storm event in philly. Did they brine the roads today? if not then this is a snowstorm. They brined a number of the roads last night and today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 through 60 hrs the s/w in texas looks stronger, and the northern stream in the west is moving south faster...pv across the north is about the same, not as strong but its overall coverage is alittle more expansive.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 through hr 72, northern stream energy in the west is digiing more, increasing the hgts along the ec more so than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GFS looks way better than it's 12z run through 78 hours. Further north with the PV, better positioned with the initial shortwave..and faster with the energy out west. Lets see where this takes us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 250mb jet stream at 84 hrs has a great look to it. 120kt 250mb jet streak diving southeast towards TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 through hr 84, same overall scheme...northern stream diving down harder increasing hgts along the ec... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 DGEX still looking pretty for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 For those interested...JB is all over this one as he is believes this will come up the coast for a big hit "heavy snows" on tues/wed in I95 corridor...is mentioning a weakening and then catch up feature similar to Feb 1983. Says you should expect models to keep this well south and east as they always do in the days leading to the biggest east coast storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Through 96 hours it's definitely better than 12z but it's going to be tough to get it up the coast. The energy out west is still just a bit delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 It's going to try really hard, though, I will say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 its going to be close this run imho...the norther stream is really digging down on the back side increasing hgts on the east coast, but it looks a little flatter...will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 250mb jet stream at 84 hrs has a great look to it. 120kt 250mb jet streak diving southeast towards TX. I prefer to compare the 18z GFS with 6z GFS. If you take a look at 500mb, you see that the PV is much more consolidated and further north than at 6z at hour 78. The s/w down south is digging less, but is much more robust allowing for more ridging out ahead of the energy. At hour 96 there's a lobe of vorticity that is creating confluence and pushing down the ridging along the east coast. The models are loving suppression this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 what doesn't look to swell on this run is the west coast ridge has shifted west, causing the northern stream to dive more, but further west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 ull coming across hr 126 give lgt snow to the area...it may start to enhance the precip closer to the coast post 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 It is trying to go to a 00z NOGAPS & 12 Z ECM means solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Close but no cigar at 132-135 hours. Still a good signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I have a question for any meteorologist or someone who has a good grasp on the features of this storm: What are the factors that are in play for this storm that are not sampled well yet, or in another manner what do we need to watch for shifts that may have changes in the placement of the storm? Are we looking at a s/w coming off the west coast and a PV in the Northwest that need to interact, or it is a PV over Maine, like 2009? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 the ull drops about .25 over the region, more along the coast where an inverted trof kicks back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I have a question for any meteorologist or someone who has a good grasp on the features of this storm: What are the factors that are in play for this storm that are not sampled well yet, or in another manner what do we need to watch for shifts that may have changes in the placement of the storm? Are we looking at a s/w coming off the west coast and a PV in the Northwest that need to interact, or it is a PV over Maine, like 2009? The northern stream features are not sampled well at all including the feature coming into the Pac and eventually towards our area which is very important. Those shortwaves are in east bumblef**k when it comes to data sampling--it's a crap shoot at this range. So we have to recognize the potential setup aloft and say "hey, that looks decent at this range." That's all we can really do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 If this storm could be delayed to Tuesday night I would be thrilled (business reasons...have a huge meeting on Tuesday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 the ull drops about .25 over the region, more along the coast where an inverted trof kicks back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Here's the total liquid..for those at are interested. http://raleighwx.ame...zdgexp72156.gif Ho humm...just another 2"+ qpf as snow on central LI. I suppose this is just a bit early to lockk it up, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deano Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Guys, use HM when talking about the poster at AmericanWx. Please use Henry M when talking about the Accuweather meteorologist. My mistake, apologies to HM. I do however respect Henry M skills though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Death to broad, sheared out upper level s/w's. That is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 My mistake, apologies to HM. I do however respect Henry M skills though. It's cool. I just want to make it clear. If you polled the board as a whole, I would guess there are two very different opinions of them, so I want to make sure we keep them identified differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.