jm1220 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 and yet at h5 it looks horrible. better compared to what? sh-t is still sh-t. if the h5 maps are correct on the gfs we are chasing our tail with this storm. it isnt like the GGEM/NOGAPS/EURO is much better at h5 but for some reason they produce a viable storm threat, with significant qpf....not sure i understand how. They don't have this piece of energy out in front of the trough as it arrives here. It causes the storm to shear out and escape ENE... basically robs the storm of energy from the trough. The rest of the models have one consolidated piece. The GFS does this ALL the time and it's a well known bias. It's definitely in GooFuS mode right now since even its ensembles have consistently been well NW with the low and they suffer from the same bias!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 nice inverted trof hitting the nyc to bos corridor at hr 126 drops a decent amount of snow in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 drops a decent amount of snow in the region. Around .75" QPF for NYC metro.. 8-12" storm probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Actually, I don't think he does. Actually I agree with Ace's analysis but know better than post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Ok and what happened to it def coming NW? Just confused. My post was in reference to the trends over the next few days..I understand how it could have been misleading though. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 People are saying how bad the GFS is for a snow event, yet NYC sees a MECS from the inverted trough/ULL. Another solution out of the grab-bag at this point but it seems models have developed a consensus that it WILL be snowing here next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 NOGAPS continues to be west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 People are saying how bad the GFS is for a snow event, yet NYC sees a MECS from the inverted trough/ULL. Another solution out of the grab-bag at this point but it seems models have developed a consensus that it WILL be snowing here next week. thats good because i like snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 thats good because i like snow Been a good winter so far....have 18.5" on the season here in Dobbs Ferry, I thought we might see that in the entire winter with a strong La Niña. Chance for light snow tomorrow, and then a bigger event possible next week. I do feel the H5 trough looks a bit too broad on the models, but the trend has been towards higher heights ahead of it...both the GFS and ECM are also picking up on a Norlun even if the main coastal misses us. I'll take another one of those as today's was 4" here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 VD 07 wasnt bad around here-- at least it stayed all frozen lol-- the 32F line stayed east of us (I believe suffolk county went over 32).... ditto with March 07. I got like 5" of sleet with that storm. Strangest thing I've ever seen, nasty, sloppy mess. And does the NOGAPS look further east with the precip maxima? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 thats good because i like snow Post of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 thats good because i like snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 DGEX...people worrying about the warmth in the immediate NYC area are safe this run. LI goes to sleet it looks like. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_18z/f114.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Been a good winter so far....have 18.5" on the season here in Dobbs Ferry, I thought we might see that in the entire winter with a strong La Niña. Chance for light snow tomorrow, and then a bigger event possible next week. I do feel the H5 trough looks a bit too broad on the models, but the trend has been towards higher heights ahead of it...both the GFS and ECM are also picking up on a Norlun even if the main coastal misses us. I'll take another one of those as today's was 4" here... Yeah if i was told i would have 25 inches by this time in october i would have called that person bcrazy...i cant believe this is going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yeah spread out over about 48 hours though Around .75" QPF for NYC metro.. 8-12" storm probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Has the nogaps ever been this consistent at this range for so long? There is some strange stuff going on folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 They don't have this piece of energy out in front of the trough as it arrives here. It causes the storm to shear out and escape ENE... basically robs the storm of energy from the trough. The rest of the models have one consolidated piece. The GFS does this ALL the time and it's a well known bias. It's definitely in GooFuS mode right now since even its ensembles have consistently been well NW with the low and they suffer from the same bias!! this is definitely a good post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 DGEX...people worrying about the warmth in the immediate NYC area are safe this run. LI goes to sleet it looks like. http://www.meteo.psu...ST_18z/f114.gif I'm agreeing with you in one sense, John, but with that H85 low where it is, and even with the secondary trying to close off another H85 center over us, I can't help but see a lot of trouble for those on a New Brunswick--TTN--Delaware County PA--Elkton MD line on south and east. In fact, I think eastern NJ down through Millville, NJ is plain rain with that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 fwiw, the 18z gfs ens with the surface low placement is about the same as 12z maybe a little further se...they are not as wet nor as strong as 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Come one people, we've seen this before. The gfs always loses the storm or does crazy things with it in the Day 4-5 range only to bring it back in Day 2-3. When the Nogaps is that far west and says it, you know the gfs will be changing its views in the future. Again,, I'm actually glad we have models further east, I would not want something like the DGEX shows to verify otherwise we're looking at 33-34 and heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Lock it up. That's just about perfect! DGEX...people worrying about the warmth in the immediate NYC area are safe this run. LI goes to sleet it looks like. http://www.meteo.psu...ST_18z/f114.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 i live 5 miles from NYC and i barely got a coating today....so no MECS for me He meant from the inverted trough being modeled for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 18z GFS ensemble mean is northwest of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 DGEX...people worrying about the warmth in the immediate NYC area are safe this run. LI goes to sleet it looks like. http://www.meteo.psu...ST_18z/f114.gif The mean between the western outliers and the OTS puts us in really good shape, now we just need them to converge in the middle in the next 3-4 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 18z GFS ensemble mean is northwest of the op. Seems like thats been the case on every run for a couple days now; on the other models too. Yet, no one seems to know why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Lock it up. That's just about perfect! I, for one, am pulling for you on this one Voyager. You've been gracious and patient, I hope you can cash with this system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I, for one, am pulling for you on this one Voyager. You've been gracious and patient, I hope you can cash with this system... That he has. The fun should be spread around, I want to see a NESIS 4! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 there are some timing issues with the ensembles so you really have to scroll through a few hours to see how many are really hits, and there are plenty! http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_18z/ensprsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 there are some timing issues with the ensembles so you really have to scroll through a few hours to see how many are really hits, and there are plenty! http://www.meteo.psu...rsloopmref.html If the coastal doesnt work out I'll gladly take another 6.5" from an inverted trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The coastal tracks remains very good for this area. The way we get into precip issues is how long the primary holds on, if there is a primary that shoots up west of the apps. You can see on a couple of the ens memebers the coastal track is good but the primary holds on longer and brings mixing issues into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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