SnoSki14 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 In any coastal situation, things are generally already determined how far west or how far east they will go by the trough axis or how far things phase. If I could get more insight on that, it would be most appreciated because I would like to know if a cutter is on the table. In my opinion, I don't see cutter at all with this system (at least not a lake cutter or Appalachian cutter), but I do think a coastal hugger is on the table. Funny how the public is already talking about this storm and calling it the next big storm when nobody had a clue with the big 26th storm until like the day before . That's usually a bad sign when the public is already talking about it, in previous cases when that happened, it didn't work out too well lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 VD 07 wasnt bad around here-- at least it stayed all frozen lol-- the 32F line stayed east of us (I believe suffolk county went over 32).... ditto with March 07. All in all it certainly wasn't bad for State College either, but the late transfer killed what should've been a huge snow event for north of the PA Turnpike that was supposed to happen even as close in as the morning of. As the day went on the 850 and 700 lows over the Ohio Valley kept getting stronger and dragging more wam mid level air in until before you knew it, even Albany was going over to sleet. The ice was so bad in PA that I-81 and sections of the PA Turnpike had to be shut down. What fell was literally like cement. It was very watery and almost like quicksand as it fell, and then froze solid. Here's another picture I took from near my apartment on 2/15 when the back end deformation band was overhead (the former NWS State College office is on the upper left at the top of the hill): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerseystorm Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 334 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2011 NJZ016>027-081000- /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0001.110108T1500Z-110109T0600Z/ SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND- ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC- COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN... CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE... HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY... LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST 334 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE: SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS: FOUR INCHES OR MORE. * TIMING: BEGINNING OVER FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY BY AROUND 10 AM SATURDAY AND SPREADING NORTHEAST TO NEAR INTERSTATE 195 BY AROUND NOON. ENDING IN THE EVENING. * IMPACTS: SNOW WOULD STICK TO ROADWAYS, ESPECIALLY BUT NOT EXCLUSIVELY UNTREATED ONES. SNOWFALL RATES WOULD CAUSE THE VISIBILITY TO DROP TO OR BELOW ONE-HALF MILE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. DRIVING WOULD BECOME HAZARDOUS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 89 was the absolute worst snow year, not even in terms of the amounts so much as the heartache caused by all the misses. Feb was brutal and the Dec rainstorm 10 days before christmas was probably even worse. We did get the Thanskgiving storm which was certainly impressive for that early and also the severity of the Dec cold snap was impressive. A notorious Miller B bust (SG knows about this one) was back in Dec 89, the notorious cold month with little snow-- we had a storm track that was supposed to give us 6-8 inches of snow but the primary held on too long and the seconday developed too close to the coast, and the snow quickly changed to rain and we even had thunderstorms (with rain not snow) because the coastal developed almost right over us. That month also featured the notorious virga storm; another prediction of 6-8 that went bust because all the snow fell in the atmosphere and none of it reached the ground-- DC was hit hard, I believe. And the previous winter, what would have been PD2 (Feb 89) and should have given us a foot of snow, gave ACY 19 inches instead and nothing to us. Needless to say, outside of a rogue storm in Nov 89, that was a pretty bad year for us and the three years that followed werent any good either (outside of the 1991 summer, if you like scorching summers lol.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 334 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2011 NJZ016>027-081000- /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0001.110108T1500Z-110109T0600Z/ SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND- ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC- COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN... CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE... HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY... LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST 334 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE: SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS: FOUR INCHES OR MORE. * TIMING: BEGINNING OVER FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY BY AROUND 10 AM SATURDAY AND SPREADING NORTHEAST TO NEAR INTERSTATE 195 BY AROUND NOON. ENDING IN THE EVENING. * IMPACTS: SNOW WOULD STICK TO ROADWAYS, ESPECIALLY BUT NOT EXCLUSIVELY UNTREATED ONES. SNOWFALL RATES WOULD CAUSE THE VISIBILITY TO DROP TO OR BELOW ONE-HALF MILE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. DRIVING WOULD BECOME HAZARDOUS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Wrong thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 through hr 54 the s/w in the south is stronger, the ridging out ahead of it is a good bit stronger...so far the northern stream seems about the same...pv is alittle further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 through hr 60, northern stream is alittle faster... more impressive ridging out ahead of the s/w...low over the s/w is about 100 miles north...pv is alittle further north causing hgr hgts on the ec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The Euro ensemble mean is clearly west of the operational. Variance is getting smaller. It's not a fan of the Miller B scenarios, but from what I can tell on the spag charts, there are quite a few members that go up the Appalachians or Susquehanna Valley. Not nearly as many OTS members this time around either. I'd call this a big win for us. Thank you for the info! I would call it that too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 hr 72 has a sub 1012 low over pennsecola fl...northern stream continues you fast and the riding out ahead of it is better, so far good improvements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GFS is definitely going to come northwest..how much is the question now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 hr 90 sub 1016 low bout 100 miles south of hse lgt precip up to bout balt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 northern stream at hr 90 much more aggressive than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Flow is much more amplified up the east coast this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just comparing the surface from 18z at 84 to 12z at 90 is extremely better. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Light snow for everybody at 99 hours..still not overly amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 lgt to mod precip into the area at hr 99 from ull Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 looks pretty much the same as 12z, heads ene off hse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 looks pretty much the same as 12z, heads ene off hse Ok and what happened to it def coming NW? Just confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 trough is very broad despite higher hights on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GFS= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 just seems like the northern stream never really dives down, it more just slides across and just broadens out the trof instead of sharpening it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 still not gonna cut it... not sure if it's the 18z SE bias at work here. SOme improvements on the h5 charts.. it just never closes off. Maybe the GFS is focusing too much on the southern stream/coastal down by SC? not sure, but it' seems to be the SE outlier attm. (compared to the 12z runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Ok and what happened to it def coming NW? Just confused. It seems to just shear the whole system out and has a piece going out ahead of it which robs from the developing storm and shunts it ENE. Considering the agreement from most of the other model suites and esp. ensembles and normally progressive models on a major storm, I think it's definitely the GFS in error here and not the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I honestly think this is a good thing--I'm not sure it's good for the GFS to shift all the way back NW to a huge hit this early in the game, especially with its SE bias. Though technically, the models don't dictate what the storm will actually do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Ok and what happened to it def coming NW? Just confused. i never mentioned it was coming further nw, the h5 looks were better, but the northern stream just never amplifies it just broadens the trof and kicks it east....relax you still get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 nice inverted trof hitting the nyc to bos corridor at hr 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I honestly think this is a good thing--I'm not sure it's good for the GFS to shift all the way back NW to a huge hit this early in the game, especially with its SE bias. Though technically, the models don't dictate what the storm will actually do. Agreed. You don't want the GFS showing a hit at this stage of the game that's for sure. And again, it's just the 18Z GFS we're talkin about here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 i never mentioned it was coming further nw, the h5 looks were better, but the northern stream just never amplifies it just broadens the trof and kicks it east....relax you still get snow. Understood, was more reference to Earthlight, and saying that, you are correct you never said that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 i never mentioned it was coming further nw, the h5 looks were better, but the northern stream just never amplifies it just broadens the trof and kicks it east....relax you still get snow. and yet at h5 it looks horrible. better compared to what? sh-t is still sh-t. if the h5 maps are correct on the gfs we are chasing our tail with this storm. it isnt like the GGEM/NOGAPS/EURO is much better at h5 but for some reason they produce a viable storm threat, with significant qpf....not sure i understand how. compare the NAM and GFS at h5 at 84hrs....on the nam i can see a MUCH bigger storm developing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 and yet at h5 it looks horrible. better compared to what? sh-t is still sh-t. if the h5 maps are correct on the gfs we are chasing our tail with this storm. it isnt like the GGEM/NOGAPS/EURO is much better at h5 but for some reason they produce a viable storm threat, with significant qpf....not sure i understand how. compare the NAM and GFS at h5 at 84hrs....on the nam i can see a MUCH bigger storm developing C'mon Ace, you know better.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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