Kingwill Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Why? I am on a post counter for some reason but I will use one of my posts to answer .. My feeling is just a gut feeling( I get them sometimes with certain things) after seeing this storm being a constant on the models for days but also because alot of the ensembles have looked better than the Ops. Throw in the fact once this first disturbance clears and all the players are on the field for storm 2 I think models will get a better handle on things. Not the most technical answer but that is why I stated what I did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Here is the NOGAPS ensemble mean...just to throw another model in here. It is absolutely mind boggling to see the NOGAPS show something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Are you using Earthsat? Maybe my resolution is less? I have the 1" isohyet about 50 mi offshore of ACY. I'm using stormvista. It seems like the 120 hr QPF is including the saturday system as well..so between the two it's showing around .8 for NYC..1.00" in Central NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It is absolutely mind boggling to see the NOGAPS show something like that. its been bombing it like that for DAYS now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Thanks for your thoughts.... it sounds like the primary being stronger would lead to more p type issues than the coastal's track. Well, they're not exactly independent. The coastal low will track closer to the coast if the primary is stronger/longer lasting and vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I don't mean to call you out specifically, so sorry in advance. I just want to point out that these are the types of posts that give us a bad name, particularly in our model discussion threads, and we get a lot of them. It hasn't been clear (at least to me) that this was strictly a model discussion. I love model discussions and stay out of them because I'm not a met, professional or amateur. I also think that the rules for model discussions can lead to a very information-dense thread. But it's good to know when a thread is/not a model discussion with model discussion rules. I suggest that the mods and posters adopt a thread-naming system for model discussions. For example, this thread could be called the NYC/PHL Model Discussion for Jan 11-14. Comments? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It hasn't been clear (at least to me) that this was strictly a model discussion. I love model discussions and stay out of them because I'm not a met, professional or amateur. I also think that the rules for model discussions can lead to a very information-dense thread. But it's good to know when a thread is/not a model discussion with model discussion rules. I suggest that the mods and posters adopt a thread-naming system for model discussions. For example, this thread could be called the NYC/PHL Model Discussion for Jan 11-14. Comments? It's not a model discussion thread, per se, but much of this thread is going to be talking about models since we're all talking about a 5-day forecast. It doesn't have model discussion storm mode rules by any stretch and there really aren't any rules at all. However, for these types of threads, it would be nice if we could keep banter and one line posts to minimum, particularly while the models are running. Everyone is trying to get information as quickly as possible and one liners or smiley posts don't help. It's definitely a balance, because ultimately I don't want to tell you guys how to post. At the same time, I don't like being made fun of by all of the other folks on the board that our "subforum is a disaster." Does that make sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It is absolutely mind boggling to see the NOGAPS show something like that. I gotta say I agree with you for a notoriously suppresive model showing something big like that with consistency does lend some support for this storm to be a big snow maker for the ec. that to me is a red flag when the nogaps shows a storm for consecutive runs def something to watch for in future model runs with model support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GGEM 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Wow - per the GGEM, this winter absolutely loves KBLM. GGEM 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The Euro ensemble mean is clearly west of the operational. Variance is getting smaller. It's not a fan of the Miller B scenarios, but from what I can tell on the spag charts, there are quite a few members that go up the Appalachians or Susquehanna Valley. Not nearly as many OTS members this time around either. I'd call this a big win for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The Euro ensemble mean is clearly west of the operational. Variance is getting smaller. It's not a fan of the Miller B scenarios, but from what I can tell on the spag charts, there are quite a few members that go up the Appalachians or Susquehanna Valley. Not nearly as many OTS members this time around either. I'd call this a big win for us. wow thats awesome news, I mean even if the operational was correct its close to .5qpf in philly, so the im assuming the ensembles must be much higher then that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 wow thats awesome news, I mean even if the operational was correct its close to .5qpf in philly, so the im assuming the ensembles must be much higher then that? Well, yeah, some would imply an epic hit, some would be a graze, some would be p-type issues, some would be OTS. All of the options are still on the table at this point. But at least the window has closed somewhat from this morning, where the low could have gone to Indianapolis or 300 mi E of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The Euro ensemble mean is clearly west of the operational. Variance is getting smaller. It's not a fan of the Miller B scenarios, but from what I can tell on the spag charts, there are quite a few members that go up the Appalachians or Susquehanna Valley. Not nearly as many OTS members this time around either. I'd call this a big win for us. WOW that is good news, is it showing more a Miller A type setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Well, yeah, some would imply an epic hit, some would be a graze, some would be p-type issues, some would be OTS. All of the options are still on the table at this point. But at least the window has closed somewhat from this morning, where the low could have gone to Indianapolis or 300 mi E of the benchmark. yea but I would say the chances of an inland track are very slim, would think our chances for a significant snow has increases atleast to a degree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 WOW that is good news, is it showing more a Miller A type setup? The ensemble mean still has a primary low west of the Appalachians. It's hard to tell exactly what is going on in the members, because I only get 552 and 528dam spag charts. All I can say for sure about them is that the variance is less. Bottom line is this is a strong run for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The Euro ensemble mean is clearly west of the operational. Variance is getting smaller. It's not a fan of the Miller B scenarios, but from what I can tell on the spag charts, there are quite a few members that go up the Appalachians or Susquehanna Valley. Not nearly as many OTS members this time around either. I'd call this a big win for us. That sounds like an inland cutter track lol-- more members showing p-type issues than not? I guess it doesnt mean much at this time range, but the trend is notable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 That sounds like an inland cutter track lol-- more members showing p-type issues than not? I guess it doesnt mean much at this time range, but the trend is notable. No, definitely not a majority of members. Eyeballing looks like 5-10 members show the 850 0C line getting back to PHL. Only one gets it to NYC, so I think the northern areas ought to be mostly safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 No, definitely not a majority of members. Eyeballing looks like 5-10 members show the 850 0C line getting back to PHL. Only one gets it to NYC, so I think the northern areas ought to be mostly safe. I should def be safe here in the burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 with the EURO OTS in previous runs i thought it wasn't looking good but it's slowly coming around to the usual GFS suppression bias. Personally I'm liking this set-up: Weekday, and hopefully not a blizzard like 12/26 which means that measuring/shoveling will be easier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 wow! Tuesday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Tuesday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Wednesday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 40%. I can't remember the last time I saw likely pops from 84 hours out! Apparently the EURO Ens were all the convincing Mount Holly needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 No, definitely not a majority of members. Eyeballing looks like 5-10 members show the 850 0C line getting back to PHL. Only one gets it to NYC, so I think the northern areas ought to be mostly safe. Thanks! Doesnt look too bad then, but something that needs to be watched closely. The euro has what, 51 members? So that's like 10% to 20% showing the 850 freezing line getting to Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 with the EURO OTS in previous runs i thought it wasn't looking good but it's slowly coming around to the usual GFS suppression bias. Personally I'm liking this set-up: Weekday, and hopefully not a blizzard like 12/26 which means that measuring/shoveling will be easier Are you high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 with the EURO OTS in previous runs i thought it wasn't looking good but it's slowly coming around to the usual GFS suppression bias. Personally I'm liking this set-up: Weekday, and hopefully not a blizzard like 12/26 which means that measuring/shoveling will be easier GFS looks like it's almost on its own in shearing out the energy like it does and racing a piece out front of it. Even its own ensembles disagree with the OP and create a strong low that tracks close enough to smack us good. Bottom line is, an out to sea track is becoming less likely IMO. There's just as much or more chance it comes close enough to introduce P-type issues for the immediate coast. The ensembles and other guidance agreeing on a hit like this is telling, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GFS looks like it's almost on its own in shearing out the energy like it does and racing a piece out front of it. Even its own ensembles disagree with the OP and create a strong low that tracks close enough to smack us good. Bottom line is, an out to sea track is becoming less likely IMO. There's just as much or more chance it comes close enough to introduce P-type issues for the immediate coast. The ensembles and other guidance agreeing on a hit like this is telling, IMO. JM, do we usually change over if Philly does? My experience with winters like 93-94 tells me otherwise... usually the changeover line takes 4 hours to get here from ACY (on average.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 pardon if this was posted UKMET (better maps) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just saw euro ensemble mean precip and slp maps. Pretty impresive for this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Euro ensembles are a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Surface low tracks off the NJ coast at 114 hours..then over or maybe just inside the benchmark at 120. Well north and west of last nights 00z ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Euro ensembles are a big hit isnt that a good sign that the euro operational will prob continue to trend west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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