chubbs Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Kinda shocked at the QPF totals mentiooned above considering how far off the coast the SLP is at day 5. Anyone else? A lot of precip is from upper low coming in from west. Can see that from 700 mb moisture plot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 minus the .25 " from tomorrow's event, about .5" -.75" (up to 1" bing shown from philly/ttn to just south of NYC.. ) better h5 set up though. Nah, it's less than that. If you are looking at Earthsat, use the 72 hr cumulative. .5 isohyet goes over PHL and NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Guys, tombo always provides a comprehensive summary at the end of the run. Please stop with the IMBY posts until the run is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Nah, it's less than that. If you are looking at Earthsat, use the 72 hr cumulative. .5 isohyet goes over PHL and NYC I was thinking that! But WOW! Ratios tomorrow would be much higher too! Imagine someone getting 6" tomorrow when most of the action was supposed to be today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Chubb, agreed, saw that after map was posted. Also, there are gaps between the 2 surface maps, so it actually looks like a slow mover so-to-speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Sounds to me it is a step in the right direction..4 days out not a bad spot..Id say there is a very good chance to at least see snow comparable to today with a decent chance it could be much more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I was thinking that! But WOW! Ratios tomorrow would be much higher too! Imagine someone getting 6" tomorrow when most of the action was supposed to be today! I was talking about the next week event with the .5 isohyet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Nah, it's less than that. If you are looking at Earthsat, use the 72 hr cumulative. .5 isohyet goes over PHL and NYC Thanks for chiming in., was throwing out rough numbers just trying to go through all the data... not worried about the qpf 100+hrs out. More worried about the H5 pattern. Looks better than what the Euro has been showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I was talking about the next week event with the .5 isohyet. Oh ok, but it seems like 0.50" line is maybe 10 mi South of NYC on the ARW. I'm not really sure how accurate that model is, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clindner00 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 So was this Euro run west of the 00Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Oh ok, but it seems like 0.50" line is maybe 10 mi South of NYC on the ARW. I'm not really sure how accurate that model is, though. Fair enough, but we probably don't want to be confusing everyone with short-range progs in the middle of the medium range threat thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 So was this Euro run west of the 00Z? Storm track is essentially the same. QPF field is larger because of the stronger primary low across the OH Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Fair enough, but we probably don't want to be confusing everyone with short-range progs in the middle of the medium range threat thread. No problem! Looks like the GFS thinks we'll have some high ratios on Wed. MOS guidance is showing a 4 and 1 in the snow column, yet the total QPF is only 0.32" for EWR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 let's try this again Brian... JMA anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Jma Looking good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 did anyone realzie the purple is .50 on the jma, so the .5 doesnt even reach phil, so its not really much wetter then the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Jma Looking good! I don't mean to call you out specifically, so sorry in advance. I just want to point out that these are the types of posts that give us a bad name, particularly in our model discussion threads, and we get a lot of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 No problem! Looks like the GFS thinks we'll have some high ratios on Wed. MOS guidance is showing a 4 and 1 in the snow column, yet the total QPF is only 0.32" for EWR. If you ask me, I'd prefer lower ratios and some risk of a changeover at KEWR. But that might have something to do with my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 did anyone realzie the purple is .50 on the jma, so the .5 doesnt even reach phil, so its not really much wetter then the other models. I wouldn't get too worried about QPF until Sun night or so.. The close but no cigar solutions have been spiting out .25 to .50 for most of the area if this storm reaches its full potential there will be alot more than that..I wouldn't be shocked at seeing even better results with the models over the weekend ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I wouldn't be shocked at seeing even better results with the models over the weekend ! Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Here is the NOGAPS ensemble mean...just to throw another model in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 what time do the euro ensembles come out......i forgot......sorry Around 3:30 on Allan's site. People who pay for the Euro get it earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Nah, it's less than that. If you are looking at Earthsat, use the 72 hr cumulative. .5 isohyet goes over PHL and NYC Weird. My 120hr QPF map at 160 hours has .75 for the entire area and 1.00" on the NJ coast. I'm guessing this includes the Saturday event, in which case, all is well..considering it's snow anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Why? I think quite a few people think that this storm is going to trend even further west and that p type issues along the coast might be more of a problem than an out to sea solution. Is that your view on this right now too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It definitely got closer to the coast and wetter than 00z, and it has trended that way for four runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Weird. My 120hr QPF map at 160 hours has .75 for the entire area and 1.00" on the NJ coast. I'm guessing this includes the Saturday event, in which case, all is well..considering it's snow anyway Are you using Earthsat? Maybe my resolution is less? I have the 1" isohyet about 50 mi offshore of ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I think quite a few people think that this storm is going to trend even further west and that p type issues along the coast might be more of a problem than an out to sea solution. Is that your view on this right now too? I know, I'm just asking why people think that. I think it is going to come back closer to the coast, too, because I expect a better energy transfer between the primary low west of the Appalachians and the leftover coastal low from weekend southern stream s/w. If the amplification of the northern stream continues, though, the primary will be stronger, causing a later transfer, and that's where the p-type issues come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It definitely got closer to the coast and wetter than 00z, and it has trended that way for four runs now. agreed. i like the way the euro keeps handling the northern stream as it settles down over the rockies and then wobbles E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Anyone think we will see watches issued for tomorrow's possible event? With the possibility of 3-6 or 4-8 i would think it would need to be mentioned. There's a different (pinned) thread for that: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I know, I'm just asking why people think that. I think it is going to come back closer to the coast, too, because I expect a better energy transfer between the primary low west of the Appalachians and the leftover coastal low from weekend southern stream s/w. If the amplification of the northern stream continues, though, the primary will be stronger, causing a later transfer, and that's where the p-type issues come in. Thanks for your thoughts.... it sounds like the primary being stronger would lead to more p type issues than the coastal's track. Even with today's system, there was some mixing and no snow has really stuck to anything. Hopefully we have a fresh slug of arctic air in place for the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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