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NYC/PHL Potential Jan 11-14 Event Discussion


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  On 1/7/2011 at 5:26 PM, Absolute Humidity said:

GGEM, a hit, but well east of 0Z, only thing that matters this far out is the signal is good. No Locks until inside 48h this winter. Edit, GGEM showing .25 - .45 most of NJ for tomorrow.

I wouldnt say well east, but it is a tad east but still a nice hit, seems to match the GFS ensembles (12z). UKMET looks similar as well.

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  On 1/7/2011 at 6:15 PM, irishbri74 said:

through 96, h5 in general seems slower, better height rises along the coast.. not sure if it's due to the northern stream holding back..

Definitely think it is because of the height rises. Low pressure developed over the OH River at 102

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  On 1/7/2011 at 5:10 PM, irishbri74 said:

I think the verification scores have been a bit skewed since the 12/29 event ( face it, over 84hrs, the globals had a tough time). But like you said, let's not beat this dead horse :deadhorse: . onto the Euro

Are you sure that's a HORSE? Nice kangaroo tail on that hybrid.

Get your point, though.

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  On 1/7/2011 at 6:21 PM, irishbri74 said:

Inverted trough being shown at 108-120, weaker slp, and a bit s/w of the 0z... closed low at 114, gets stornger by 120, (hence the mositure fetch back into pa/lakes..)

What sort of moisture fetch are we talking about? Is the primary in the OV much stronger on this run, thus, more precip in Ohio and WPA?

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  On 1/7/2011 at 6:25 PM, jlewis1111 said:

where is tombo

yeah, my bad, not as good as him.. haha

:axe:

mositure fetch at 114 has precip from the coast back to precip. I think it has something to do with that 1st low(h5 low) pulling the trough back.. some type of double low system here( the western one very very weak at 114, no slp measurement)

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  On 1/7/2011 at 6:30 PM, chubbs said:

No major changes. Closed low at 500 mb is a nice improvement. Hard to tell with e-wall maps but low looks a little NW compared to 00z

maybe not MAJOR, but helluva lot better than 0z

I got the 6hr maps, and h5 is def more amp'd out west

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  On 1/7/2011 at 6:30 PM, chubbs said:

No major changes. Closed low at 500 mb is a nice improvement. Hard to tell with e-wall maps but low looks a little NW compared to 00z

Definitely looks that way...although hard to tell how much, because the timeframes depicted from 00Z to 12Z are 12 hours apart, run to run.

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