ravensrule Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Isn't the data better sampled on this run, or was that supposed to be tomorrow's 12z? Tomorrow 12Z i saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 hr 108 sub 1012 low bout 150 miles east of hse...missed the phase, the northern stream was just lagging the whole time, wasn't nearly as amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 just some very lgt precip for the area, maybe .1 total.. over .25 in southern del Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This run of the GFS is likely to be closer to the coast. The surface reflection over the gulf is further north which should allow it get better captured by the H5 trough assuming it can close off quick enough. Nope, east of the 6z GFS.Not sure how it is compared to the 0z gfs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 now if esembles are east, and if euro follows that we have problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 What happened at 0z and 6z is not all that predictive of what will happen at 12z, but the 0z/6z GFS was a suppressed outlier compared to its ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 What happened at 0z and 6z is not all that predictive of what will happen at 12z, but the 0z/6z GFS was a suppressed outlier compared to its ensemble members. Yea exactly. So if 12z ensembles come in amped up then there's something going on with that op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 NOGAPS remains consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Imho, the GFS op is about right where we would expect it 4-5 days out...suppressed, flat, underestimating amplification of Northern jet. Like John said, when the ens come out and are blown up, we'll realize the op bias a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yes, and it also was consistent showing a strong low near the benchmark tomorrow and that will also turn out to have been correct as per the latest GFS and NAM. NOGAPS remains consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 NOGAPS remains consistent. Looks like the 0z GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 posted this in the main 12z thread too. Ukmet has surface low 120 hours under Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The parade of storm possibilities every 3 or 4 days that the GFS has been showing for a few days now is reminscent of the winter of 1993-1994 when we had storms every 3 days the entire winter. Wow. Buy your road salt now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 12z GFS is not that different from 00/06. Just a little weaker with northern upper low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The parade of storm possibilities every 3 or 4 days that the GFS has been showing for a few days now is reminscent of the winter of 1993-1994 when we had storms every 3 days the entire winter. Wow. Buy your road salt now. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foregfs.shtml might have something to do with this. Big time movement in the MJO forecast next week into phases 7-8 ... this is just the GFS though, not sure what the ukie/euro are showing. Very encouraging to see the UKIE come on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 If ggem can hold serve i'll be very excited for the euro which just missed showing a huge storm for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 why? its been horrendous this winter. Because it's been too far east so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Because it's been too far east so much. exactly. Been so supressed all the time this winter. (let's hope it's not a reversal.) SO now that it's inside the benchmark, it's a positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 12z GFS ensemble mean is slightly east of the 6z ensemble run but further west than the 12z op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 12z GGEM weaker than 00z and a bit east thru 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 H108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 H108 Might be a little weaker, but looks like another hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 exactly. Been so supressed all the time this winter. (let's hope it's not a reversal.) SO now that it's inside the benchmark, it's a positive. that makes no sense, sorry. dont wanna beat this anymore than it already has....but because the crapiest model out of the main 4 all of the sudden shows MECS, its good news? im not aruging against a trend in the models for a big coastal low...im actually on board with a decent size storm, cud be bigger. but im not leanin on the ukie for ANY trends or positive signs. not for THIS system. give me some better verification scores for at least one winter storm, and then it might become useful again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GGEM 96 - 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yes sir thats my baby, no sir dont mean maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Can people stop posting the huge 2000x2000 GGEM maps? They load terribly on mobile devices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 that makes no sense, sorry. dont wanna beat this anymore than it already has....but because the crapiest model out of the main 4 all of the sudden shows MECS, its good news? im not aruging against a trend in the models for a big coastal low...im actually on board with a decent size storm, cud be bigger. but im not leanin on the ukie for ANY trends or positive signs. not for THIS system. give me some better verification scores for at least one winter storm, and then it might become useful again. I think the verification scores have been a bit skewed since the 12/29 event ( face it, over 84hrs, the globals had a tough time). But like you said, let's not beat this dead horse . onto the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Can people stop posting the huge 2000x2000 GGEM maps? They load terribly on mobile devices. and when quoting someone don't repost the same maps , delete them please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmosk Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Can people stop posting the huge 2000x2000 GGEM maps? They load terribly on mobile devices. If you stop posting the huge maps, at least include a link to them, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GGEM, a hit, but well east of 0Z, only thing that matters this far out is the signal is good. No Locks until inside 48h this winter. Edit, GGEM showing .25 - .45 most of NJ for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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