TheTrials Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Here is a tidbit from Upton's overnight discussion. The whole discussion can be found here http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=ny&prodtype=discussion#AFDOKX AS FOR THE MODELS...THE GEM IS THE FURTHEST W...FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF AND THEN THE GFS. THE GEM IS FAR ENOUGH W TO ALLOW THE COASTAL FRONT TO PENETRATE SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WHAT IS NOTEWORTHY IS THAT SEVERAL OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT A WRN SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE GEM. A MEAN OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES WOULD BE A PRIME SNOW TRACK FOR MOST OF THE CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Good Friday Morning To You All. Drive safely Today. Didn't see a lot of talk on it, but the UKMET model showed great improvement from its previous runs and it appears to be deepening rapidly on the 40/70 bench mark. It seems to be moving towards the primary into the ohio valley with secondary development. I believe the UKMET model has had difficulty showing phased solutions this winter in the long range so this is interesting. Quite honestly the UKMET has verified the poorest of the big 4 in the Mt. Holly CWA in this forecast range so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Quite honestly the UKMET has verified the poorest of the big 4 in the Mt. Holly CWA in this forecast range so far this winter. Yeah Tony I almost cringed when I saw those beautiful looking maps of the UKMET solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I still don't have a blessed clue what's going to happen. I checked the ops models first this morning and wasn't all that impressed. A light to moderate event to be sure, but nothing that would be crippling. Then I got to the ensemble guidance and they are all more amplified than their respective ops runs (0z GFS, 0z Euro, 6z GFS - not a fan of CMC ENS ever). The Euro is really impressive, showing late redevelopment and a Buckeye snowstorm to missing the coast by 500 mi. I'd probably take the middle of the road solution of a light to moderate event right now, but given the way the last two winters have gone, someone in Jersey will probably pick up 20". Might as well just put Monmouth County next to it, I see more members are creeping back to ptype issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Might as well just put Monmouth County next to it, I see more members are creeping back to ptype issues. Though I was of course at Rutgers last winter and for the epic screw of March 09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Might as well just put Monmouth County next to it, I see more members are creeping back to ptype issues. Haha. Yeah, it's really weird how much more amplified the individual ensemble members are than the ops models almost across the board. Verbatim, probably 20% of the superensemble members are p-type concerns for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yeah Tony I almost cringed when I saw those beautiful looking maps of the UKMET solution its pulled several rocks. At 144hrs it had snow to rain for Boxing Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Haha. Yeah, it's really weird how much more amplified the individual ensemble members are than the ops models almost across the board. Verbatim, probably 20% of the superensemble members are p-type concerns for the coast. Yeah you get a hint of a primary to go up west into the Ohio Valley, you start asking for trouble. The problem is with the ensemble split, the mean comes out looking perfect, while the clustering as of today is not. Just posting what the models are saying not what I think the eventual outcome will be. I want to see that 12z run on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Haha. Yeah, it's really weird how much more amplified the individual ensemble members are than the ops models almost across the board. Verbatim, probably 20% of the superensemble members are p-type concerns for the coast. You're also seeing that with the Navy Nogaps too, too much phasing because of lack of model resolution to split the short waves? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 You're also seeing that with the Navy Nogaps too, too much phasing because of lack of model resolution to split the short waves? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Quite honestly the UKMET has verified the poorest of the big 4 in the Mt. Holly CWA in this forecast range so far this winter. Yes, but hasn't the verification issue been this model beeing too far east in the long term? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 No lack of resolution there, and I believe that is initialized off of the gfs grid, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 No lack of resolution there, and I believe that is initialized off of the gfs grid, correct? correct, init off the gfs. Looks pretty much like it to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 correct, init off the gfs. Looks pretty much like it to. How far is the low placement offshore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 How far is the low placement offshore? on the fim looks like 300-350 miles...it does give us precip prob related to the h5 ull Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yes, but hasn't the verification issue been this model beeing too far east in the long term? Yeah I'd pick more east than west, but it also has had some overphased solutions too. Not a good 144hr verification on the hpc web site: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/modelvrf/ukmet0012/ukmet_sfc_F144wbg.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 here is the total qpf for the indiv ens of the gfs 3/4 are good hits :thumbsup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 What I like about the GFS ensembles is that every member gives us at least .25" QPF. So it isn't an all or nothing event like 12/26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 DGEX pulls some ULL/inverted trough shenanigans. Probably 3-6" in Philly and NYC the hard way with more in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This is the sref members and mean at 87 hours. They can be found here. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SREF21500US_9z/srefloop.html#picture It would appear that several are lined up at 87 hours to induce strong cyclogenesis off the east coast, with a strong 500 low coming down from the midwest, even with the lead short wave dampening out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This is the sref members and mean at 87 hours. They can be found here. http://www.meteo.psu...op.html#picture It would appear that several are lined up at 87 hours to induce strong cyclogenesis off the east coast, with a strong 500 low coming down from the midwest, even with the lead short wave dampening out. I've been wondering about that type of scenario where the lead shortwave has a big lead and even though it dies out, the Plains energy gets plenty of room to amplify and we get a coastal storm that way. It looks like to me using the e-wall website that this is exactly what the GGEM does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 We've been following the wrong s/w...If this thing is going to blow up, it's going to be the digging northern stream wave that hooks up with the leftover strung out energy from the southern stream feature and boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 12z GFS rolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 through hr 63 gfs looks a little flatter, compared to 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 through hr 72, same overall theme flatter...lower ec hgts...northern stream energy isnt digging as much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 hr 90 has a sub 1016 low about 75 miles east of savannah, ga... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 hr 99 has lgt precip up to dc, with lgt to mod just south of them...sub 1016 low bout 50 or so miles south of cape fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Isn't the data better sampled on this run, or was that supposed to be tomorrow's 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This run of the GFS is likely to be closer to the coast. The surface reflection over the gulf is further north which should allow it get better captured by the H5 trough assuming it can close off quick enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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