earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 There are at least 10 major hits on the GEFS means..timing is different on them but they all get the job done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Seems like there's 1 or 2 more hits on each run of the ensembles starting at 12z today. Great signal imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 gfs indiv ens have a lot of members showing high qpf. But a good deal of them have ptype issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 what could be pretty wild is when that arctic front pushes through, you could see a good storm develop on that front. lol we'll get weenified for this but that sounds like Feb 1899 Yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 that 0 line is too close for comfort, especially with that model's known SE bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 that 0 line is too close for comfort, especially with that model's known SE bias. the coastal tracks are fine, its the primary low. In a lot of them it holds on to long which screws a good amount of people. No need to get all rattled over it, 6z will have a different solution. It just should be noted that this is deff an option on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Srefs's mean 500mb heights at 87hr...Looks good to me, trof digging down, heights rising in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The Euro ensembles are slightly further northwest than the OP..they also have a small closed off H5 contour over PA at 126 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 the coastal tracks are fine, its the primary low. In a lot of them it holds on to long which screws a good amount of people. No need to get all rattled over it, 6z will have a different solution. It just should be noted that this is deff an option on the table. I remember this happened quite a bit in 06-07, which is why we saw so much sleet that winter lol. But the blocking this year has been much stronger, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I believe you meant SW of the OP OP Means Those are at different times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Those are at different times. My bad for some reason Raleighs stopped updating.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 fwiw the 0z ggem is well se of the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Well, thats a good sign for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The 06Z NAM continues the trend with the mesoscale models and increased amplification. SREF are pretty pumped up in the height fields as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The Euro ensembles are slightly further northwest than the OP..they also have a small closed off H5 contour over PA at 126 hrs. Very encouraging signals from these past few/several model cycles. Seems like with each run the northern s/w is catching the leading southern s/w faster/sooner causing more of a amped trough over the EC resulting in the faster phase. If this continues and I wouldn't be surprised given the 50/50 low block, this storm could and has the potential to be a classic EC I-95 special SECS (BOS-RIC?) ...which we haven't seen in a while. IF the Euro starts showing a closed h5 after phase over the Ohio valley/MA then at least this area should be game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 6z dgex, misses with the coastal but brings the ULL overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 While the 6 Z GFS has come slightly SW ... The NOGAPS continues its consistency @ 6 Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 the coastal tracks are fine, its the primary low. In a lot of them it holds on to long which screws a good amount of people. No need to get all rattled over it, 6z will have a different solution. It just should be noted that this is deff an option on the table. So true. Every run seems to produce a different scenario. The storms and potentials are there, but one time it shows some snow, then another rain or p-type issues, then another next to nothing. To me, anything past hr 180 is really fantasy land, and specific outcomes wrt precip types, etc, should be taken with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 So true. Every run seems to produce a different scenario. The storms and potentials are there, but one time it shows some snow, then another rain or p-type issues, then another next to nothing. To me, anything past hr 180 is really fantasy land, and specific outcomes wrt precip types, etc, should be taken with a grain of salt. This is 4-5 days out not past 180 however...but i agree with past 180 philosophy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Here is 126 & 132 of the NOGAPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This is 4-5 days out not past 180 however...but i agree with past 180 philosophy! My bad. I thought Tom was talking about the GFS threat for Sunday 1/16-Monday1/17. As of the 0z GFS, it looks like rain, or at least p-type issues, then the cold air mother load drops in. Which has already changed from the last time I looked at it. The 06z now shows a colder solution for the potential storm, but backed off a bit from the EXTREME cold that followed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 My bad. I thought Tom was talking about the GFS threat for Sunday 1/16-Monday1/17. As of the 0z GFS, it looks like rain, or at least p-type issues, then the cold air mother load drops in. Which has already changed from the last time I looked at it. The 06z now shows a colder solution for the potential storm, but backed off a bit from the EXTREME cold that followed it. your right i was talking bout the gfs for the monday event. I was commenting on the 0z gfs ens which showed a great coastal track, but the primary is what killed the coastal plain cause it takes longer for it to transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The Wxsim module has temps staying below freezing for the next week in the NW Philly burbs with another inch or two tomorrow morning and then the significant snow beginning by PM rush hour on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Good Friday Morning To You All. Drive safely Today. Didn't see a lot of talk on it, but the UKMET model showed great improvement from its previous runs and it appears to be deepening rapidly on the 40/70 bench mark. It seems to be moving towards the primary into the ohio valley with secondary development. I believe the UKMET model has had difficulty showing phased solutions this winter in the long range so this is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I still don't have a blessed clue what's going to happen. I checked the ops models first this morning and wasn't all that impressed. A light to moderate event to be sure, but nothing that would be crippling. Then I got to the ensemble guidance and they are all more amplified than their respective ops runs (0z GFS, 0z Euro, 6z GFS - not a fan of CMC ENS ever). The Euro is really impressive, showing late redevelopment and a Buckeye snowstorm to missing the coast by 500 mi. I'd probably take the middle of the road solution of a light to moderate event right now, but given the way the last two winters have gone, someone in Jersey will probably pick up 20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'd venture to guess that this one has 6-12 written all over it if it hits..But what do I know. There have been some impressive closed off 500mb solutions on various op/ensemble guidance over the last few days though There have also been some rather unimpressive solutions as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I still don't have a blessed clue what's going to happen. I checked the ops models first this morning and wasn't all that impressed. A light to moderate event to be sure, but nothing that would be crippling. Then I got to the ensemble guidance and they are all more amplified than their respective ops runs (0z GFS, 0z Euro, 6z GFS - not a fan of CMC ENS ever). The Euro is really impressive, showing late redevelopment and a Buckeye snowstorm to missing the coast by 500 mi. I'd probably take the middle of the road solution of a light to moderate event right now, but given the way the last two winters have gone, someone in Jersey will probably pick up 20". Interesting that your brought up the CMC ensembles. They were very bullish yesterday at 12z while the operation was not. Now they have switched a little. Not sure if this is the ensembles doing what they normally due with their lesser resolution or saying that the operational went too far west. One thing is for sure, we have a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Interesting that your brought up the CMC ensembles. They were very bullish yesterday at 12z while the operation was not. Now they have switched a little. Not sure if this is the ensembles doing what they normally due with their lesser resolution or saying that the operational went too far west. One thing is for sure, we have a long way to go. The Canadian ensemble package uses an initialization scheme that maximizes variance between the members versus ours and the Euro which have some of those but also try to constrain the perturbations to realistic solutions. I just don't find it that useful operationally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The Canadian ensemble package uses an initialization scheme that maximizes variance between the members versus ours and the Euro which have some of those but also try to constrain the perturbations to realistic solutions. I just don't find it that useful operationally. Oh I see, you were speaking of them in terms of how they are produced, not the actual solution. Looking at the plots, there are good, bad, and in the middle solutions to be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 here is the total qpf for the indiv ens of the gfs 3/4 are good hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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