earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Moves southeast of the BM at 132 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 hr 132 992 about 300-400 miles east of acy...lgt precip balt to nyc...lgt to mod on jerz shore up to bout nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It's probably a good thing that the Euro/gfs is further east than the other models considering how amplified the Nogaps and GGEM is. Somewhere in between those two would be great. Still a long way to go though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 hr 132 992 about 300-400 miles east of acy...lgt precip balt to nyc...lgt to mod on jerz shore up to bout nyc Thanks.. at least this is a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 if the northern stream would of sped up a little more, or the southern stream slowed a little more this would of been a good hit, it just misses the phase. Thus, you get a west of 12z track and a good hit for coastal area from jerz south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 hr 132 992 about 300-400 miles east of acy...lgt precip balt to nyc...lgt to mod on jerz shore up to bout nyc Basically, exactly where we'd like to be 4-5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 hr 138 has some lingering lgt precip over the area...storm has moved ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet-Phase Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Does anyone have the latest Ukmet maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Basically, exactly where we'd like to be 4-5 days out. agreed, it just misses the phase, sped up northern stream or slow southern stream and its prob a good hit up and down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Does anyone have the latest Ukmet maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It's probably a good thing that the Euro/gfs is further east than the other models considering how amplified the Nogaps and GGEM is. Somewhere in between those two would be great. Still a long way to go though. Yeah, its good that the euro is very slow trending west, because we dont want it getting too far west. A classic track is just fine. IMO this will have a tough time cutting inland because of the blocking and the euro's slowness in bringing it west shows that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 day 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 euro hangs back the inverted trof like feature like the gfs and we are under lgt precip from hr 144-156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 What kind of analogs are on the table? It looks like a kind of storm we saw last winter. Ukmet doesn't look too bad either, it really gets going later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 What kind of analogs are on the table? It looks like a kind of storm we saw last winter. Ukmet doesn't look too bad either, it really gets going later on. no...deff nothing like last yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 What kind of analogs are on the table? It looks like a kind of storm we saw last winter. Ukmet doesn't look too bad either, it really gets going later on. I wonder if 2/10/10 is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 ukie hooks it back in a bit late but good for SNE...still another trend in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I understand why my post on the UK got deleted cause i realized it was old myself and went to delete it...but why did my post on 10:1 odds on the means show a coastal hugger? That is what the majority of guidance is showing tonight from the GFS means to the GGEM to the NOGAPS (which has been actually leading the west trend) and even the ECM means at 12 Z were very similar to the NOGAPS..So i would not be surprised to see the ECM means show a coastal hugger... Obviously it is the only model , along with the OP GFS ...that is well east with the system.. and we seen what the GFS means do ..so logical conclusion would be similar to the rest of guidance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 euro hangs back the inverted trof like feature like the gfs and we are under lgt precip from hr 144-156 Could you do your total QPF thing for select locations, tombo? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I understand why my post on the UK got deleted cause i realized it was old myself and went to delete it...but why did my post on 10:1 odds on the means show a coastal hugger? That is what the majority of guidance is showing tonight from the GFS means to the GGEM to the NOGAPS (which has been actually leading the west trend) and even the ECM means at 12 Z were very similar to the NOGAPS..So i would not be surprised to see the ECM means show a coastal hugger... Obviously it is the only model , along with the OP GFS ...that is well east with the system.. and we seen what the GFS means do ..so logical conclusion would be similar to the rest of guidance! I don't know someone deleted a post I made showing the precip type for the GGEM a while ago... someone had an itchy trigger finger in here I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet-Phase Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Thanks...it looks like it's better compared to the earlier 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet-Phase Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 What kind of analogs are on the table? It looks like a kind of storm we saw last winter. Ukmet doesn't look too bad either, it really gets going later on. Plus, it's a 24 hour period between the maps posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Could you do your total QPF thing for select locations, tombo? Thanks! its .75-1 for coastal areas .5-.75 from i95 area south .25-.5 west of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 its .75-1 for coastal areas .5-.75 from i95 area south .25-.5 west of that Sounds much better! Will check back tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Any more euro weenie through 240? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 its .75-1 for coastal areas .5-.75 from i95 area south .25-.5 west of that looked at the accum precip for the coastal its coastal areas .5-.75 i95 south .25-.5 west of that .1-.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Any more euro weenie through 240? hrs 222-234 cold front pushed through but its snow, oddly enough with a low in the great lakes, then a low form on the cold front and runs into sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I think we will see a wild event in the next 2 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I don't know someone deleted a post I made showing the precip type for the GGEM a while ago... someone had an itchy trigger finger in here I guess look at post #229 in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I think we will see a wild event in the next 2 weeks what could be pretty wild is when that arctic front pushes through, you could see a good storm develop on that front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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