Rib Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Discuss the possible storm and it's effect on the NYC/PHL area here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Discuss the storm and it's possible impacts on the PHL area here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This says it all... we can now lock this thread and go to an OBS thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This says it all... we can now lock this thread and go to an OBS thread Well, that really puts a dagger in the heart of next week's storm. Only question is OTS or cutter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Why would accuweather do a map like that now? Just trying to hype the public? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Why would accuweather do a map like that now? Just trying to hype the public? Well, 1060's calling tomorrow's 1-3" snowfall as a snowstorm. Hype and the Mid Atlantic with regards to snow go hand in hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The map is ok in my opinion, as long as it couched in some sort of uncertainty. You be the judge. http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/44035/crosscountry-snowstorm-january.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Updated HPC discussion. One paragraph to update what they wrote over night. WE SEE NO COMPELLING REASON TO CHANGE CONTINUITY AND ADJUST PRELIM HPC GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER CONSIDERATION OF STILL VARIED 12Z MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF NOW TRENDING CLOSER TO THE COAST WHILE MOST OTHER 12Z GUIDANCE SLIPS MORE OFFSHORE...OVERALL COMING CLOSER TOWARD OUR MORE CONSENSUS FORECAST FOR A REASONBLY WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM/TRACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deano Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 HM's already on board with this one and twobehind it. Kiss of death for one, two or three storms? Talk amongst yourselves.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 HM's already on board with this one and twobehind it. Kiss of death for one, two or three storms? Talk amongst yourselves.... Guys, use HM when talking about the poster at AmericanWx. Please use Henry M when talking about the Accuweather meteorologist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 what i like, even if we may miss the coastal or get grazed, we still get a 1-3 2-4 event with the ULL swinging through. You can see this on a lot of the gfs ens members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 what i like, even if we may miss the coastal or get grazed, we still get a 1-3 2-4 event with the ULL swinging through. You can see this on a lot of the gfs ens members Yeah, you were the first to bring that up yesterday. It looks like a pretty good call at this point. The 12z Euro ensemble still has a few cutters, which I guess isn't terribly surprising, since some members could still have a fast, sheared SW. Otherwise, the 12z operational ECM falls right in line with the ensemble spread at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yeah, you were the first to bring that up yesterday. It looks like a pretty good call at this point. The 12z Euro ensemble still has a few cutters, which I guess isn't terribly surprising, since some members could still have a fast, sheared SW. Otherwise, the 12z operational ECM falls right in line with the ensemble spread at H5. yea, there must be a good amount of members showing a primary going towards the lakes. The ens mean develops a low on the west side of the apps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Nam at 84, ton of moisture over Mississippi/Alabama..The ridge off the west coast is gonna help drop down the northern stream in later frames..Gonna have to wait for the DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 yea, there must be a good amount of members showing a primary going towards the lakes. The ens mean develops a low on the west side of the apps Interestingly enough the means look like the NOGAPS from last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Nam at 84, ton of moisture over Mississippi/Alabama..The ridge off the west coast is gonna help drop down the northern stream in later frames..Gonna have to wait for the DGEX. seems to be a lot of confluence still over the NE. Last storm it got out of the way in time, but last year it hung around. Will be interesting to see what the dgex thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well, 1060's calling tomorrow's 1-3" snowfall as a snowstorm. Hype and the Mid Atlantic with regards to snow go hand in hand. Its only a snowstorm because accuweather says it is a snowstorm. Remember, any thing over an inch on the road is a storm event in philly. Did they brine the roads today? if not then this is a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 12z ECMWF ensemble spaghetti plots are very impressive..all of them northwest of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 12z ECMWF ensemble spaghetti plots are very impressive..all of them northwest of the OP. incredibly fairly good news!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 12z ECMWF ensemble spaghetti plots are very impressive..all of them northwest of the OP. Where can those be found? Are they on the ECMWF site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 And I know people think he loves to hype (though he didnt with tomorrow's storm) but JB is really bullish on next week's storm, particularly for the south over the weekend and then making the turn by Tuesday...he even mentioned blizzard of '83 though isn't going as far as to say we'll see that type of storm or those amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Nam at 84, ton of moisture over Mississippi/Alabama..The ridge off the west coast is gonna help drop down the northern stream in later frames..Gonna have to wait for the DGEX. Looking at that map, it's gonna take an awful lot to get that northern stream s/w to phase in to the southern stream. Heights low across the EC don't show that doing a whole lot, unless it tries to pop it Miller B style with that northern stream feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 18z dgex looks like it has the ull coming across and triggering a storm just off delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Its only a snowstorm because accuweather says it is a snowstorm. Remember, any thing over an inch on the road is a storm event in philly. Did they brine the roads today? if not then this is a snowstorm. They just started to brine North Oxford valley road around 2pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 18z dgex looks like it has the ull coming across and triggering a storm just off delmarva That's interesting. It's almost as if it wants to blow that northern stream feature that lags behind the southern energy into a sort-of-Miller-B type thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Where can those be found? Are they on the ECMWF site? The means are sometimes offered on the ECMWF site, but you have to pay for the ensemble data. It's a monthly fee on most pay/subscription sites for the mean and spaghetti plots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 DGEX is a huge hit as it wraps the storm up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 heres the ggem ens mean, continues the same trend basically. ULL comes through and enhances precip and forms a low closer. On the hr 144 map you can see the big difference on the western side of the low between the isobars, meaning a good amount of spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 DGEX is a huge hit as it wraps the storm up Love that model... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 heres the ggem ens mean, continues the same trend basically. ULL comes through and enhances precip and forms a low closer. On the hr 144 map you can see the big difference on the western side of the low between the isobars, meaning a good amount of spread. I feel like thats a lot of precip for an ensemble 144 hours out. Either way, so far this aftn GGEM/EURO ensembles as well as the DGEX are very encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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