famartin Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I'm sure its a usual 06/18Z NAM egg, we've seen them many times before...18Z usually overdoes QPF with insane amounts and the 06z often has underdone QPF/suppressed storm tracks. Noticed the EC backed of on QPF for today as well. I'm guessing the robust 0Z NAM was overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The 06Z RGEM more or less confirms the 06Z NAM likely had one of its usual choke runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The 06Z RGEM more or less confirms the 06Z NAM likely had one of its usual choke runs. Yeah, I'm not saying I buy the 6Z NAM. I'm just saying I don't buy the 0Z NAM either. I'm thinking both were off, in one direction or another. GFS being steady and the EC backing off a bit makes me think that the really robust models that are going bonkers with QPF today are probably spreading the goods too far and wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yeah, I'm not saying I buy the 6Z NAM. I'm just saying I don't buy the 0Z NAM either. I'm thinking both were off, in one direction or another. GFS being steady and the EC backing off a bit makes me think that the really robust models that are going bonkers with QPF today are probably spreading the goods too far and wide. It seems the QPF is almost always overdone in the short range, I posted before the 36-60 hour range seems to be when the most reasonable amounts are spit out by the models...of course its tough to get much of a read on this event since it was not picked up prior to now....my feeling is that if the precip placement happens as the recent NAM runs had it that 3-4 inches will be the most common amounts in eastern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The NAM giveth, the NAM taketh away... I'm sure this is underdone but ouch... Dude..you know better. This is nowcasting time. Toss the models out at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 11.3 this morning which is the second coldest morning of the winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 15.8 heading up to blue mt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yeah, I'm not saying I buy the 6Z NAM. I'm just saying I don't buy the 0Z NAM either. I'm thinking both were off, in one direction or another. GFS being steady and the EC backing off a bit makes me think that the really robust models that are going bonkers with QPF today are probably spreading the goods too far and wide. Mt Holly agrees with my thinking about the 0Z NAM being overdone... " MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BEST MID LEVEL LIFT CORRESPONDING TO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THIS AREA. BASED ON THIS...THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY SNOW SHOULD RUN ACROSS THE ABOVEMENTIONED AREA. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIER QPF (WITH 0000 UTC NAM APPEARING TO BE TOO WET). BASED ON THE POSITIONING OF THE MID LEVEL FORCING AND MAXIMUM DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WILL UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING (FOR MAINLY 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW) " FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 15.8 heading up to blue mt. If that "squall line" hold together in Central PA, we may see some action here later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Mt Holly agrees with my thinking about the 0Z NAM being overdone... " MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BEST MID LEVEL LIFT CORRESPONDING TO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THIS AREA. BASED ON THIS...THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY SNOW SHOULD RUN ACROSS THE ABOVEMENTIONED AREA. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIER QPF (WITH 0000 UTC NAM APPEARING TO BE TOO WET). BASED ON THE POSITIONING OF THE MID LEVEL FORCING AND MAXIMUM DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WILL UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING (FOR MAINLY 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW) " FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY. I agree...a bit of an outlier, IMO. Wouldn't surprise me if the coastal areas got close to 6" but I still think those amounts will not be so widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Based on the radar this morning I wonder if all there is with this for SE PA are these two batches of precip. The stuff E Maryland/Delaware slides northeast clipping SE PA this morning, then the squall line blasts though SE PA toward midday. I guess between them 1-3" would occur. The GEM at 6z looked about the same as several previous runs and sticks with the idea of 0.15"-0.25" across most of SE PA. That would correspond with the 1-3 totals (potentially isolated 4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yeah, radar doesn't seem too impressive this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yeah, radar doesn't seem too impressive this morning. Agreed, although that 1 hour squall line alone moving through central PA (if it holds together) could drop 1-2" itself when it translates east. We'll see. I was wondering what the radar would look like when I woke this morning, I was expecting more coverage with less distinct areas. We'll see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Light snow - looks like 1/4" of new snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allman15 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 very very light snow ne phila...........heavier snow seems to be training 30 miles east of city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 <br />Yeah, radar doesn't seem too impressive this morning.<br /><br /><br /><br />Looks a helluva lot better than it did 2 hours ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Agree with radar comments - but we weren't supposed to get much snow before 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Correct, next to nothing before 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 http://www.emc.ncep....nt4km/conus/00/ The SPC's hi res WRF has bursts of snow showers or bands of snow throughout the day...it's a decent tool for short term for "ideas" on what might happen. Probably will be a slow and steady 1-3" event for the Philly burbs...not like yesterday's 2" in 3 hours....this might take 5-6 hours to get 2". Periods where it's flurrying out, then a quick half inch burst, then light snow...rinse and repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 http://www.emc.ncep....nt4km/conus/00/ The SPC's hi res WRF has bursts of snow showers or bands of snow throughout the day...it's a decent tool for short term for "ideas" on what might happen. Probably will be a slow and steady 1-3" event for the Philly burbs...not like yesterday's 2" in 3 hours....this might take 5-6 hours to get 2". Periods where it's flurrying out, then a quick half inch burst, then light snow...rinse and repeat. Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 very light snow fallng here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Light bordering on moderate snow here in NW Chester County with a very cold 17.6 degrees. Fresh coating on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Light to Mod snow over NW Chesco this AM Wxsim has between 1 and 2" of snow today by 3pm. You can see the wave passing through MD and SC PA that the Mt Holly team spoke of this morning...appears it is starting to strengthen a bit. Heavy Snow now being reported at York, Harrisburg and Culpepper VA AM Low was 17.6 Currently Snow 20.9 Wind E - 1 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bliz299 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 A beautiful day in the neighborhood! Flakes started just after 7am and as of 8am 0.7". Latest (7:55am) visibility at KWWD (aprx. 2 mi. N) 0.5 miles and I'd estimate that here also. Temp. 28°, wind calm though WeatherView32 shows aprx, avg. dir. as N., bar. 29.47" and steady. Interestingly Mt. Holly has a Winter Storm Warning in effect yet the forecast only calls for 1-3". Hmmmm. I'll go with the WSW!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Light to Mod snow over NW Chesco this AM Wxsim has between 1 and 2" of snow today by 3pm. You can see the wave passing through MD and SC PA that the Mt Holly team spoke of this morning...appears it is starting to strengthen a bit. Heavy Snow now being reported at York, Harrisburg and Culpepper VA AM Low was 17.6 Currently Snow 20.9 Wind E - 1 mph Hey, I've been meaning to ask you, what exactly is Wxsim? Something you developed? If its a long answer, please PM me as I don't want to contribute to thread clutter. Thanks and enjoy the snow today! Starting to pick up here SE of the city... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Very light drizzle snow not even showing up on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 just a program I purchased...for more info go to www.wxsim.com It's a personalized localized forecast for your backyard...using the normal models and local real time info from either your weather station or upstream to incorporate advection routines. Hope that helps Paul Hey, I've been meaning to ask you, what exactly is Wxsim? Something you developed? If its a long answer, please PM me as I don't want to contribute to thread clutter. Thanks and enjoy the snow today! Starting to pick up here SE of the city... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Very light drizzle snow not even showing up on radar. Its a radar issue... there's an algorithm that tries to take out ground clutter etc and its overdoing it right now. Its detecting it, but then removing the returns from the output erroneously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Light to Mod snow over NW Chesco this AM Wxsim has between 1 and 2" of snow today by 3pm. You can see the wave passing through MD and SC PA that the Mt Holly team spoke of this morning...appears it is starting to strengthen a bit. Heavy Snow now being reported at York, Harrisburg and Culpepper VA AM Low was 17.6 Currently Snow 20.9 Wind E - 1 mph Weird how they are reporting Heavy snow but the radar doesnt support anything at all falling there. Unless GRLEVEL3 isnt working or it isnt in clear air mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I don't really see the WWA verifying for Lehigh County today, maybe we can squeeze out an inch or so. But it's still early and anything can happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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