Parsley Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Important thing on the GFS the vert. velocity shown on 700mb/rh map (at 18z Sat.) is lined up perfectly for SE PA and southern NJ. Even if the QPF totals aren't there, the upper level support it snowing at a good clip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 If you think the NAM is too wet, and the GFS is too dry..use the GEM as a compromise and you get 1-4 inches for SE PA and 4-8 across southern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 has it all completely melted? Mine for the day is .06, but its on the roof so im not sure its all melted or not. honestly I haven't checked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 If you think the NAM is too wet, and the GFS is too dry..use the GEM as a compromise and you get 1-4 inches for SE PA and 4-8 across southern NJ. did anyone post the qpf for various locations on the rgem, or did i just miss it?> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 did anyone post the qpf for various locations on the rgem, or did i just miss it?> there isn't any where to get extracted data, atleast that i know for the rgem. For qpf its prob .25-.4 in around phl...phl south and east burbs to the coast is .4-.6. north and west of phl is .1-.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 did anyone post the qpf for various locations on the rgem, or did i just miss it?> no #'s. Just the maps a few pages back. The 0.20" contour cover extreme SE PA and the southern half of Jersey with a greater than 0.40+" contour over south Jersey. Probably.... 0.10 from ABE to THV 0.20" from TTN to ILG 0.30" around PHL 0.40" Point Pleasant to Cape May (with some potentially 0.50+" in that region) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 yeah, just saw it now, thanks. btw, i definitely agree with taking a compromise of the 2 models, i would say 2-4 for sepa and 3-6 for southern jersey, with bigger numbers closer to the coast. no #'s. Just the maps a few pages back. The 0.20" contour cover extreme SE PA and the southern half of Jersey with a greater than 0.40+" contour over south Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 yeah, just saw it now, thanks. btw, i definitely agree with taking a compromise of the 2 models, i would say 2-4 for sepa and 3-6 for southern jersey, with bigger numbers closer to the coast. Yeah I think places most likely to see under 2 inches would be from a line from Trenton to Pottstown to Reading to York on northward. Definetely more appears likely south of there heading toward Philly....something I didn't think would happen 6-12 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Anyone have the GFS QPF #'s for a few spots in SE PA and S Jersey? (even though they "may not" be the best to go off of). Just wondering... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 New MM5 lights up DE South Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 MM5 buries the Jersey Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Anyone know what time the ARW comes out? I can never remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 the MM5 was too aggro with today's event, no? MM5 buries the Jersey Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I'm not so sure the NAM is to wet considering the 12 z ARW had over .75 for a good chunck of S and C NJ. Which is interesting because it usually runs drier than it s NMM counter part and per many Mets, has better physics. It did real well with this mornings even, nailing the snow hole over Monmouth ocean co and displaying a .75 + blob over conn. Should be interesting from raritan river to Del tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Anyone know what time the ARW comes out? I can never remember NMM and ARM come out like at 2 in the morning I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 NMM and ARM come out like at 2 in the morning I think. Thanks John, the ARW did great with today's event and I was blown away by what it was showing for SE PA for tomorrow event on its 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 the MM5 was too aggro with today's event, no? I think it was, especially in NE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I think the ARW intializes at 1. People were posting QPF maps from 48 hours at 1:30pm today, so I'm assuming that it would initialize around 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 NMM and ARW are coming out now on this site. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&model=HRW-NMM-EUS&area=&areaDesc=&page=Model&prevModel=GFS&prevArea=&currKey=model&prevKey=model&cat= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Total MM5 precip. it too shows the band of higher QPF from about Harrisburg to Philly like all the other models, and then it obvisously buries Jersey. Ok, that's enough models for me. Taking into account what the 12z Euro had I think we are all in good shape for a few inches and you Jersey folks may get a workout shoveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 NMM and ARW are coming out now on this site. http://mag.ncep.noaa...evKey=model= thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 nam has very good omega in the snow growth region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 WRF_ARW looks exactly like the NAM and RGEM through 21 hours. Philly and all of south Jersey are over .25 by that time and all the way up to Trenton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GGEM looks great too, solid .40+ all Nj coastal counties out to near Philly Trenton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Lows through 1AM: TTN 15 DYL 14 PNE 19 WRI 14 VAY 17 SMQ 7 LOM 17 NEL 11 UKT 7 PHL 24 MJX 9 BLM 19 PTW 15 XLL 16 MMU 6 ABE 9 EWR 22 CDW 13 12N 6 TEB 16 NYC 24 ACY 16 ILG 23 LGA 28 MQS 19 JFK 25 RDG 16 MIV 12 MPO 4 FWN 6 LNS 17 HPN 22 FRG 24 DOV 22 AVP 13 WWD 21 MGJ 6 SWF 23 GED 23 ESN 28 W29 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 looks like things may get started around here soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Mount Holly issued winter storm warnings for the Jersey shore calling for three to five inches. Are the criteria lower along the south Jersey shore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Mount Holly issued winter storm warnings for the Jersey shore calling for three to five inches. Are the criteria lower along the south Jersey shore? Yes... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/WinterMaps/12HourSnowWarningCriteria.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The NAM giveth, the NAM taketh away... I'm sure this is underdone but ouch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The NAM giveth, the NAM taketh away... I'm sure this is underdone but ouch... I'm sure its a usual 06/18Z NAM egg, we've seen them many times before...18Z usually overdoes QPF with insane amounts and the 06z often has underdone QPF/suppressed storm tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.