ag3 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Here's a snapshot precip map at hour 24 from Rgem. Awaiting the 36 hour b & w map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 18z rgem continues the them with snj getting hit good placement of heaviest snow axis remains steady on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 not sure if it was mentioned here or not, but the euro is .25-.5 for everyone in the phl,sjerz, n and w burbs corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 not sure if it was mentioned here or not, but the euro is .25-.5 for everyone in the phl,sjerz, n and w burbs corridor Hope you do not mind me asking, but how much QPF does the ECMWF throw back towards KMDT tomorrow? Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 18 gfs is not really that impressive for anyone. basically 1-2 inches SPA/NMD through hr 30 maybe 2-4 extreme SNJ and eastern shore of DE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Hope you do not mind me asking, but how much QPF does the ECMWF throw back towards KMDT tomorrow? Thank you! about .2-.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 18 gfs is not really that impressive for anyone. basically 1-2 inches SPA/NMD through hr 30 maybe 2-4 extreme SNJ and eastern shore of DE to be expected.. Leave this to the NAM and other High Res models under 36hrs.. GFS doens't do well with the meso stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 rgem at hr 36, drops more precip through the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 rgem at hr 36, drops more precip through the region Tombo, Doesnt the GFS usually follow the RGEM? I am confused as to why the GFS has such a lack of precip. for Saturday. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Tombo, Doesnt the GFS usually follow the RGEM? I am confused as to why the GFS has such a lack of precip. for Saturday. Rossi You are either thinking of the NAM or the GGEM. I don't have any idea why the GFS would follow the RGEM in any way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 000 NOUS41 KPHI 072051 PNSPHI DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055- 060>062-067>071-280400- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SPOTTER REPORTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 0350 PM EST FRI JAN 07 2011 THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 8 HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS AFFECTED OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS AND SKYWARN SPOTTERS FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/PHI ********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL******************** LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT DELAWARE ...KENT COUNTY... DOVER T 953 AM 1/07 ...NEW CASTLE COUNTY... NEWPORT 1.6 820 AM 1/07 WILMINGTON 1.2 100 PM 1/07 COUNTY AIRPORT BEAR 1.2 100 PM 1/07 NEWARK 1.0 831 AM 1/07 MARYLAND ...KENT COUNTY... MILLINGTON 0.5 913 AM 1/07 NEW JERSEY ...ATLANTIC COUNTY... ESTELL MANOR 1.1 1140 AM 1/07 PLEASANTVILLE 0.3 100 PM 1/07 ATLANTIC CITY 0.3 100 PM 1/07 INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ...BURLINGTON COUNTY... ROEBLING 1.8 915 AM 1/07 MAPLE SHADE 1.5 1050 AM 1/07 DELRAN TWP 1.4 1135 AM 1/07 MOUNT LAUREL 1.0 1045 AM 1/07 MOUNT HOLLY 1.0 1101 AM 1/07 FORECAST OFFICE TABERNACLE 0.6 1130 AM 1/07 ...CAMDEN COUNTY... LINDENWOLD 1.2 1032 AM 1/07 ...CUMBERLAND COUNTY... VINELAND 1.5 1020 AM 1/07 ...GLOUCESTER COUNTY... GLASSBORO 2.0 1100 AM 1/07 SEWELL 1.5 115 PM 1/07 NATIONAL PARK 1.3 100 PM 1/07 ...HUNTERDON COUNTY... WHITE HOUSE STATION 2.0 1050 AM 1/07 RINGOES 1.8 1131 AM 1/07 ...MERCER COUNTY... HOPEWELL 2.3 1219 PM 1/07 EWING 2.0 158 PM 1/07 YARDVILLE 1.4 1120 AM 1/07 ...MIDDLESEX COUNTY... METUCHEN 2.2 213 PM 1/07 ...MONMOUTH COUNTY... CREAM RIDGE 1.1 139 PM 1/07 ...MORRIS COUNTY... BUTLER 4.0 117 PM 1/07 HANOVER 3.5 1200 PM 1/07 CEDAR KNOLLS 3.4 125 PM 1/07 RANDOLPH TWP 3.0 1200 PM 1/07 BOONTON 0.5 836 AM 1/07 ...SOMERSET COUNTY... 2 NE SOMERVILLE 1.8 1131 AM 1/07 BRANCHBURG PARK 1.8 1200 PM 1/07 SOMERSET 1.6 1209 PM 1/07 ...SUSSEX COUNTY... WANTAGE 4.1 336 PM 1/07 ...WARREN COUNTY... BLAIRSTOWN 2.8 100 PM 1/07 PHILLIPSBURG 2.3 1111 AM 1/07 STEWARTSVILLE 2.1 1242 PM 1/07 PENNSYLVANIA ...BUCKS COUNTY... PERKASIE 2.0 856 AM 1/07 FURLONG 1.8 1158 AM 1/07 MORRISVILLE 1.8 1230 PM 1/07 FRICKS 1.5 952 AM 1/07 ...CHESTER COUNTY... CHESTERBROOK 3.0 1000 AM 1/07 GLENMOORE 2.5 930 AM 1/07 EAST NANTMEAL 2.5 958 AM 1/07 EXTON 2.0 933 AM 1/07 HONEY BROOK 1.0 736 AM 1/07 ...DELAWARE COUNTY... GARNET VALLEY 2.5 1128 AM 1/07 MEDIA 2.5 1200 PM 1/07 CLIFTON HEIGHTS 2.0 940 AM 1/07 DREXEL HILL 2.0 939 AM 1/07 SHARON HILL 2.0 1155 AM 1/07 ...LEHIGH COUNTY... SCHNECKSVILLE 3.1 117 PM 1/07 SLATINGTON 2.3 1104 AM 1/07 NEW TRIPOLI 2.3 1000 AM 1/07 ALLENTOWN 1.7 100 PM 1/07 INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT EAST TEXAS 1.5 900 AM 1/07 ...MONROE COUNTY... TOBYHANNA 3.1 132 PM 1/07 ...MONTGOMERY COUNTY... TRAPPE 2.2 1000 AM 1/07 POTTSTOWN 2.0 941 AM 1/07 WYNNEWOOD 1.5 959 AM 1/07 ...NORTHAMPTON COUNTY... MARTINS CREEK 3.4 1130 AM 1/07 NAZARETH 3.2 1105 AM 1/07 BETHLEHEM 2.6 1050 AM 1/07 ...PHILADELPHIA COUNTY... ROXBOROUGH 1.5 1040 AM 1/07 SOMERTON 1.3 1030 AM 1/07 PHILADELPHIA 1.3 100 PM 1/07 INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT $$ HEAVENER/DELISI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 000 NOUS41 KOKX 072129 PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-080909- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SPOTTER REPORTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 425 PM EST FRI JAN 07 2011 THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC ********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL******************** LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT CONNECTICUT ...FAIRFIELD COUNTY... DANBURY 7.3 340 PM 1/07 PUBLIC GREENWICH 5.0 200 PM 1/07 SKYWARN SPOTTER NEW CANAAN 5.0 215 PM 1/07 SKYWARN SPOTTER NORWALK 4.5 240 PM 1/07 PUBLIC WESTPORT 2.4 340 PM 1/07 SKYWARN SPOTTER DARIEN 2.0 200 PM 1/07 CT DOT BRIDGEPORT 1.6 345 PM 1/07 NWS COOP NEW JERSEY ...BERGEN COUNTY... MAHWAH 6.0 230 PM 1/07 PUBLIC BERGENFIELD 5.1 400 PM 1/07 SKYWARN SPOTTER RIDGEWOOD 5.0 100 PM 1/07 SKYWARN SPOTTER RIVER EDGE 5.0 100 PM 1/07 SKYWARN SPOTTER DUMONT 4.8 345 PM 1/07 SKYWARN SPOTTER WYCKOFF 4.5 100 PM 1/07 SKYWARN SPOTTER RIVERVALE 4.3 315 PM 1/07 PUBLIC RAMSEY 4.2 100 PM 1/07 SKYWARN SPOTTER ORADELL 4.2 100 PM 1/07 SKYWARN SPOTTER GARFIELD 4.1 130 PM 1/07 SKYWARN SPOTTER ...ESSEX COUNTY... CEDAR GROVE 3.7 130 PM 1/07 PUBLIC WEST ORANGE 3.2 330 PM 1/07 PUBLIC NEWARK AIRPORT 1.9 100 PM 1/07 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER ...HUDSON COUNTY... KEARNY 3.5 230 PM 1/07 PUBLIC JERSEY CITY 2.7 230 PM 1/07 SKYWARN SPOTTER HARRISON 2.5 200 PM 1/07 NWS COOP ...PASSAIC COUNTY... WEST MILFORD 4.3 1205 PM 1/07 PUBLIC RINGWOOD 4.0 1114 AM 1/07 SKYWARN SPOTTER WAYNE 4.0 350 PM 1/07 SKYWARN SPOTTER HASKELL 4.0 200 PM 1/07 SKYWARN SPOTTER WEST PATERSON 3.0 1100 AM 1/07 PUBLIC ...UNION COUNTY... ROSELLE 3.9 1203 PM 1/07 SKYWARN SPOTTER UNION 2.0 1042 AM 1/07 SKYWARN SPOTTER NEW YORK ...BRONX COUNTY... RIVERDALE 1.0 1100 AM 1/07 SKYWARN SPOTTER ...KINGS (BROOKLYN) COUNTY... BROOKLYN HEIGHTS 1.8 345 PM 1/07 SKYWARN SPOTTER ...NASSAU COUNTY... HICKSVILLE 1.6 415 PM 1/07 SKYWARN SPOTTER JERICHO 1.4 415 PM 1/07 PUBLIC ...NEW YORK COUNTY... CENTRAL PARK 1.7 400 PM 1/07 CENTRAL PARK ZOO ...ORANGE COUNTY... NEWBURGH 5.0 300 PM 1/07 SKYWARN SPOTTER TUXEDO PARK 5.0 240 PM 1/07 PUBLIC NEW WINDSOR 4.2 250 PM 1/07 PUBLIC WARWICK 4.0 245 PM 1/07 SKYWARN SPOTTER MIDDLETOWN 3.5 1220 PM 1/07 PUBLIC MONROE 3.2 1235 PM 1/07 PUBLIC GREENWOOD LAKE 3.0 1145 AM 1/07 SKYWARN SPOTTER ...PUTNAM COUNTY... MAHOPAC 6.0 315 PM 1/07 SKYWARN SPOTTER ...QUEENS COUNTY... FLUSHING 2.0 245 PM 1/07 PUBLIC WOODSIDE 1.3 300 PM 1/07 SKYWARN SPOTTER NYC/LA GUARDIA 1.0 100 PM 1/07 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER ...RICHMOND COUNTY... RICHMOND 1.5 115 PM 1/07 PUBLIC ...ROCKLAND COUNTY... NYACK 4.5 240 PM 1/07 PUBLIC NEW CITY 4.4 300 PM 1/07 SKYWARN SPOTTER NEW HEMPSTEAD 4.0 1215 PM 1/07 PUBLIC ...SUFFOLK COUNTY... UPTON 1.3 400 PM 1/07 NWS OFFICE PATCHOGUE 1.1 315 PM 1/07 NWS EMPLOYEE EAST SETAUKET 1.0 345 PM 1/07 PUBLIC EAST NORTHPORT 1.0 100 PM 1/07 SKYWARN SPOTTER ...WESTCHESTER COUNTY... ARMONK 6.2 320 PM 1/07 PUBLIC PORT CHESTER 5.1 415 PM 1/07 PUBLIC MOUNT VERNON 5.0 400 PM 1/07 PUBLIC EASTCHESTER 5.0 355 PM 1/07 PUBLIC YONKERS 5.0 340 PM 1/07 PUBLIC NORTH WHITE PLAINS 2.9 325 PM 1/07 COCORHAS $$ SCALORA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 You are either thinking of the NAM or the GGEM. I don't have any idea why the GFS would follow the RGEM in any way. Yeah...The NAM and RGEM would often be in tandem, not the GFS and RGEM...the GFS while it has been rather good in the 36-84 range the last month or so has been poor inside of that period, particularly on QPF values and placement...it missed the 12/26 event (in the short range as far as track and QPF) and basically blew today's as well...it got most of western LI right but for the completely wrong reason...I'd feel good right now in C-S NJ regardless of the GFS...the way the NAM has nailed the 26th event, today's event to a large extent and the Cape Cod event on 12/16 I'd trust it over the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 what does everyone think about Mt Holly including Somerset and Middlesex County in the 2-4 inch prediction band for tomorrow...seems rather bullish given the model outputs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yeah...The NAM and RGEM would often be in tandem, not the GFS and RGEM...the GFS while it has been rather good in the 36-84 range the last month or so has been poor inside of that period, particularly on QPF values and placement...it missed the 12/26 event (in the short range as far as track and QPF) and basically blew today's as well...it got most of western LI right but for the completely wrong reason...I'd feel good right now in C-S NJ regardless of the GFS...the way the NAM has nailed the 26th event, today's event to a large extent and the Cape Cod event on 12/16 I'd trust it over the GFS. More S NJ than C... TTN is right on the gradient... again! Apparently any storm that favors southern or eastern NJ hates TTN with a passion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 More S NJ than C... TTN is right on the gradient... again! Apparently any storm that favors southern or eastern NJ hates TTN with a passion Honestly, I could see JFK seeing significant snow out of this more so than TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 what does everyone think about Mt Holly including Somerset and Middlesex County in the 2-4 inch prediction band for tomorrow...seems rather bullish given the model outputs point and click forecast is going for 1-3 in Edison with snowshowers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 what does everyone think about Mt Holly including Somerset and Middlesex County in the 2-4 inch prediction band for tomorrow...seems rather bullish given the model outputs Agreed. I think this could have a sharper cutoff. Too bad since most of my family is up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 what does everyone think about Mt Holly including Somerset and Middlesex County in the 2-4 inch prediction band for tomorrow...seems rather bullish given the model outputs EC gives both counties a bit more than 0.2" liquid so its not a crazy forecast... GFS is drier of course and the NAM has that tight gradient which worries me greatly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Honestly, I could see JFK seeing significant snow out of this more so than TTN. Yeah... I went conservative with 1-2" as my personal (non-government) call for TTN. Not liking that NAM cut-off at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yeah... I went conservative with 1-2" as my personal (non-government) call for TTN. Not liking that NAM cut-off at all. Yeah Ray, that cutoff on the nam would suck being as I missed this snow today to the north with only 0.5". Will have a nice hole here if both dont pan out for me..But I don't think I will ever complain for a long long time after witnessing the Boxing Day storm full force. I can die a happy man lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yeah Ray, that cutoff on the nam would suck being as I missed this snow today to the north with only 0.5". Will have a nice hole here if both dont pan out for me..But I don't think I will ever complain for a long long time after witnessing the Boxing Day storm full force. I can die a happy man lol Where's mine? Or am I supposed to live to 150 before I get to see that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 wow- the snow hole lives on- no end in site to those who continue to say it will- Winter storm watch/advisories to the south of us once again. I have to get out the broom for tomorrow. This is getting ridiculous. These 1-2 inch snowfalls are breaking my back. The snow melted before I could even sweep the walkway today. Poor Tamaqua, I hope your pixie dust is not to heavy tomorrow. Maybe you can make a snowball out it. I will concur. My forecast: Saturday: Snow likely, mainly after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 24. Calm wind becoming north between 6 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Where do you find the NWS Mt. Holly snow map. I've looked all over their site and can't find it. Thanks http://www.erh.noaa....lSnow/index.php Pretty sure he meant where on the page, since it's not obvious. Start from the home page: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/ and then click on the link for "storm total snow forecast available " which is located about an inch above the map of the region. And maybe because this is a government run operation, the link to stuff like this is different on every office's homepage: for example, the NYC office has a link named "storm total forecast" which is located just below and to the right of the region map. Would love to see some better standardization of the NWS office websites - same thing in finding many other things, like snowfall reports, weather records, climate info, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Pretty sure he meant where on the page, since it's not obvious. Start from the home page: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/ and then click on the link for "storm total snow forecast available " which is located about an inch above the map of the region. And maybe because this is a government run operation, the link to stuff like this is different on every office's homepage: for example, the NYC office has a link named "storm total forecast" which is located just below and to the right of the region map. Would love to see some better standardization of the NWS office websites - same thing in finding many other things, like snowfall reports, weather records, climate info, etc. Since the total snow graphic is somewhat experimental (not every office does it), there tends to be differences between offices as far as how they are put on the web site. Most people probably only look at one office's page (their own local office's) most if not all of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Where's mine? Or am I supposed to live to 150 before I get to see that Haha hey you got 96 remember?! Yes I know so did I but I was 8 years old at the time and couldn't possibly appreciate it as much from a Meteorological perspective. Or from the understanding of how often I seemingly get screw jobs in other storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Anyhow, heres my map(sorry that it's so freaking huge) that I scratched together really quickly. It is based heavily on the NAM's qpf coverage depiction. And I gave a little more love then the nam for further north. It's pretty much right on point with how Mt. Holly feels I think. Let's hope 00z models bring it further north to show us all some love. Or lets just hope the euro/ggem can score a short range coop. http://www.examiner....rm-looking-good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Haha hey you got 96 remember?! Yes I know so did I but I was 8 years old at the time and couldn't possibly appreciate it as much from a Meteorological perspective. Or from the understanding of how often I seemingly get screw jobs in other storms. True, I was 14 in 96 so that was good. Getting tired of getting jipped lately though... its been nearly 7 years since I saw a foot of snow fall. Granted, I did screw myself by moving to Elko, which hasn't seen a foot of snow in one storm in 14 years... but still, that just means we're due! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Wow, just peeked at the 18z runs - NAM, CNJ north...bummer, RGEM still juicy, not like the ARW but still good. Any thoughts on the ARW? Has .75 for CNJ. It seems to handle the little Monmouth Co. Snow hole today quite well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Other than the GFS and its lower QPF, the NAM, Euro and GEM all show higher QPF totals, I take that as a good sign, especially with what the GEM, I'd normally expect that on the lower side of things. With that said, I'll stick with my general 1-2" for most of SE PA then 2-3" from about PHL south and east with isolated 5" totals possible east and south of the the NJ Turnpike and I-195 in Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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