earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Tonights Nogaps (yes, I said the Nogaps) actually has a snowstorm for Long Island at 48-54 hrs. It's probably closing in on 20 mm of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Strongly agree. I mentioned this in my discussion for the blog earlier today. "A thin band should move southwest to northeast during the day Friday. Within this band..moderate to heavy snow could fall. It should be noted that guidance has backed off on the development of an inverted trough/norlun trough type feature. Instead..they are moving the boundary along rather swiftly---until it reaches an area just north of the NYC Metro, where it attempts to pivot." Yeah I read the blog. Solid. To think that DT had a huge swath in 12"+ on his first guess - I know, only a guess. But I always cringe when he does that because some tiny irrational part of me always wants to believe him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Tonights Nogaps (yes, I said the Nogaps) actually has a snowstorm for Long Island at 48-54 hrs. It's probably closing in on 20 mm of liquid. Very interesting situation setting up for sure. Could be a surprise system for a few hours, like the early December disturbance which dropped 4.5" of snow in Levittown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Tonights Nogaps (yes, I said the Nogaps) actually has a snowstorm for Long Island at 48-54 hrs. It's probably closing in on 20 mm of liquid. For a potential round 2, I'm toast up here in the HV almost for sure, but SNE and LI could cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Tonights Nogaps (yes, I said the Nogaps) actually has a snowstorm for Long Island at 48-54 hrs. It's probably closing in on 20 mm of liquid. Wow. Can someone post it, please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Wow. Can someone post it, please? Wouldn't it be hysterical if the NYC sanitation crews go ballistic for tomorrow and 1-3" of snow, and then get caught completely blindsided for a bigger snowstorm on Saturday? Not one TV met I saw even mentioned Saturday as being a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It started here.... 19* and flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Did the GGEM also show impact from that Saturday feature as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 radar looks like **** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 radar looks like **** What did you expect, this is a 1" - 3" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Moderate snow for most people at 48 hrs on the Euro. NJ Coast..NE NJ..LI..NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 .3-.5 for everybody by 54 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 .3-.5 for everybody by 54 hrs Forgive my ignorance, truly, but when you or anyone else says "at 54 hours" does that mean 54 hours from "now"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 .3-.5 for everybody by 54 hrs That's a pretty large increase from earlier today. 3-6" for tomorrow, or is that combined with the Saturday storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Forgive my ignorance, truly, but when you or anyone else says "at 54 hours" does that mean 54 hours from "now"? Yes, that's the total accumulated QPF through 54 hours on the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 That's a pretty large increase from earlier today. 3-6" for tomorrow, or is that combined with the Saturday storm? That's both features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 That's both features. oh not bad. A decent 3-6" through Saturday. Pretty quick development of that second feature today on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 .3-.5 for everybody by 54 hrs when you say "everybody" how far south into NJ does that .3-.5 extend. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It doesn't exactly mean 54 hours from this moment, but rather 54 hours after the start hour of the run. The 0z run starts midnight Greenwich Mean Time, which is 7:00 PM in the Eastern Time Zone (NYC) during the winter months. So you add 54 hours to 7:00 PM Eastern, which is 1:00 AM Sunday morning, Thank you William, and Earthlight too. I've just learned something new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Moderate snow for most people at 48 hrs on the Euro. NJ Coast..NE NJ..LI..NYC. Does this include the Hudson Valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Most of tonights 00z Hi-Res models including the EMC WRF, NCEP NMM/ARW are drier..with generally .10-.25 for NJ and NYC. The higher amounts of almost all of the models are on Eastern LI, SW CT and SE NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Does this include the Hudson Valley? Basically NYC south and south/east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Really cool depiction of the convergence boundary on the NAM..also notice the southeast flow which will be a problem for snow accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Did the GGEM also show impact from that Saturday feature as well? Yes as does the UKMET GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 What is the total qpf for the GGEM feature that presents itself for saturday into sunday? Also, for the meterologists, is this set-up something that presents itself as feasible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Really cool depiction of the convergence boundary on the NAM..also notice the southeast flow which will be a problem for snow accumulation Did you see it on the NAM run that went crazy - was it last night's 12z? Wow. This is a nice example in its own right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Also, for the meterologists, is this set-up something that presents itself as feasible? I've ruined threads before with this line of reasoning, but the overnight crew is usually pretty calm... How could anyone reasonably claim that a setup is unreasonable unless it contained an obvious error in its physics? I'm not a met but it looks reasonable to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 What is the total qpf for the GGEM feature that presents itself for saturday into sunday? Also, for the meterologists, is this set-up something that presents itself as feasible? Its essentially a wave of low pressure (one of many) that deepens along the (arctic) front. Feasible, yes and fairly common with such a setup. Looks like nice bonus snows for DE/S-NJ, LI and more into NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Wouldn't it be hysterical if the NYC sanitation crews go ballistic for tomorrow and 1-3" of snow, and then get caught completely blindsided for a bigger snowstorm on Saturday? Not one TV met I saw even mentioned Saturday as being a threat. They're aware of the saturday potential. They're one of my clients. The DOS issues have little to do with forecasts and a lot to do with politics. But that's a discussion for a whole different thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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