supermeh Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 NAM looks to get interesting with that low developing off the coast of hatteras at 30. It looks much stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 agree tom...going to be fun....nam has all of nj .10+ and the city east .25+ Tim, it sure as heck isn't the blizzard with 6+ hrs of 2"/hr rates but it's definitely going to cause travel issues tomorrow. Quick hitting but intense band of snow, more like an arctic squall rather than a norlun that tends to hang around in the same spot longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 00z NAM is more impressive w/ the convergence/vertical velocities at H7 for tomorrow morning. Band is also further south. Tom, This will stick immediately down here in W. Monmouth. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 looks like its going to be a 2 part show on the nam.....alot of the models are showing this now...hr 39 light snow for dc-phl.....looks like it can be a nice two days of on and off light snow...i will take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Tim, it sure as heck isn't the blizzard with 6+ hrs of 2"/hr rates but it's definitely going to cause travel issues tomorrow. Quick hitting but intense band of snow, more like an arctic squall rather than a norlun that tends to hang around in the same spot longer. does not bother me...one storm for me im good for the rest of the season....small events are fun also....i try to enjoy every flake as snow is always a wild card here edit: hr 42 light snow moving back into the metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 looks like its going to be a 2 part show on the nam.....alot of the models are showing this now...hr 39 light snow for dc-phl.....looks like it can be a nice two days of on and off light snow...i will take it Agree. Looks like there will be round 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Tom, This will stick immediately down here in W. Monmouth. Rossi Rossi -- I agree. We're in the teens now but even if we warm to near freezing, the ground is frozen and hard as a rock. Sticking shouldn't be any issue for anyone, except maybe on the beaches themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 some type of enhancment going on in south jersey at hr 45...also light snow from nyc south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Agree. Looks like there will be round 2. Lol, at hour 42 there's a second inverted trough with the low moving off Hatteras working its way back into the Phl-NYC corridor. Just too funny... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 some type of enhancment going on in south jersey at hr 45...also light snow from nyc south I'm not sure if that's another inverted trough or it tries to pop a meso-low down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Wow, ck out the sim at 42, could be an interesting Sat. Weekend rule in effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Rossi -- I agree. We're in the teens now but even if we warm to near freezing, the ground is frozen and hard as a rock. Sticking shouldn't be any issue for anyone, except maybe on the beaches themselves. I agree and the focus should be on the morning commute rather than the evening one. Seems most news and alerts have been focusing on the evening. I think things taper down by 2 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'm not sure if that's another inverted trough or it tries to pop a meso-low down there. Nope, definitely an inverted trough based on H7 and H5. Tongue of higher vv's extending back to NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 hr 48 snowfall map for the nam at sv has 2-3 inches of snow from south jersey-albany....alot of snj snow comes from the 2nd little event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 QPF NYC: 0.23 EWR: 0.21 JFK : 0.22 TEB: 0.23 LGA: 0.23 BLM : 0.20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Whatever has been happening off the coast of MTP has since dissipated. There is some very dry air around still as shown on the 00z OKX sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 RGEM makes it very interesting for that 2nd wave. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/c36_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 RGEM makes it very interesting for that 2nd wave. http://www.weatherof...ast/c36_100.gif dont have maps...but ggem looks good for the 2nd event per phl obs thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 dont have maps...but ggem looks good for the 2nd event per phl obs thread That's the RGEM. GGEM comes out later, around 11:30. Look at my link. Sim radar at 48, has an organized shield of precip hitting coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 RGEM makes it very interesting for that 2nd wave. http://www.weatherof...ast/c36_100.gif Looks like the a stornger vort rotates of the PV and tries to pop a low off the coast, nothing major but it could bring something up here. The NAM also hinted at the same feature, but the entire system was too progressive and the SLP escaped to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 inverted-paluzza Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 this regional split has made me dizzy scrolling back and forth between threads. Whats next county threads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 the gfs is .10+ for the first event.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 this regional split has made me dizzy scrolling bank and forth between threads. Whats next county threads? Street level! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 the gfs is .10+ for the first event.... Looks much drier than the nam and rgem thru 18. Are you beyond 18? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 That second area of precipitation is forming out ahead of a strong area of vorticity models are keying in on so far this evening. This feature has been trending stronger on most models. If you look at H5 you can see it develop and shift northeast from the Mid Atlantic around the PV. That being said, I wouldn't put too much stock in any solution. Of course it's good to see, but I can't speak for the accuracy of the models with such a feature. They will always jump around, and when you have smaller scale features like that in place the shifts can become dramatic, or have big effects on the sensible weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 hr 30 the gfs has a broad area of low pressure 996 over the va and nc coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looks much drier than the nam and rgem thru 18. Are you beyond 18? yes it is...but im out to hr 39...thats total preciep for 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Currently it is 25 Degrees in Central NJ with Mostly Cloudy/Overcast skies. Radar shows precipitation is advancing. This is confirmed as light snow in State College. http://www.statecollege.com/tavern-cam/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GFS is barely .10" for NYC and less then .10" for most of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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