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NYC 1/7-1/8 Regional Discussion and Obs


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  On 1/8/2011 at 10:51 PM, Brian5671 said:

Will be surprised if we get anything here in Fairfield Cty-but can't complain after yesterday...

if we get anything it will be from the ivt that will extend nw or a developing deform band a little later, but i think it will be tough.

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  On 1/8/2011 at 11:16 PM, Diego said:

6.9 as of 1pm, and 28.1 so far for the season, so both figures may be revised upwards.

Wow, how much did they have at this point last season? I think they ended up with over 60 inches last season.

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  On 1/8/2011 at 11:26 PM, swataz said:

So is this pretty much a bust here in this area? Is there going to be some type of wrap-around action or are we looking at the end of this event for us out here? Radar doesn't look too promising, that's for sure.

Where are you? If you're west of the Nassau/Suffolk border its basically over...east of there I still anticipate 3-5 inches will fall over the south fork of LI and maybe 1-2 into central Suffolk.

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  On 1/8/2011 at 11:21 PM, A-L-E-X said:

Wow, how much did they have at this point last season? I think they ended up with over 60 inches last season.

ACY's total was 21.5" for DEC/JAN combined last winter, so they're well ahead. I think most people are, since February was the major month in 09-10. I'm ahead of my total for last winter as well. Was about 23" at this time, this year I'm 25.5".

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  On 1/8/2011 at 11:27 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

Where are you? If you're west of the Nassau/Suffolk border its basically over...east of there I still anticipate 3-5 inches will fall over the south fork of LI and maybe 1-2 into central Suffolk.

I am out on the Smithtown/Hauppauge border, about 17 miles east of Nassau/Suffolk border...

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  On 1/8/2011 at 11:31 PM, William said:

No doubt it has pivoted NW over the last hour. The Twin Forks are in for a good time, I believe...

It would not surprise me to see Orient see little if anything and East Hampton to get 6 inches in this one...I think the north fork will see much less

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  On 1/8/2011 at 11:21 PM, A-L-E-X said:

Wow, how much did they have at this point last season? I think they ended up with over 60 inches last season.

  On 1/8/2011 at 11:29 PM, Isotherm said:

ACY's total was 21.5" for DEC/JAN combined last winter, so they're well ahead. I think most people are, since February was the major month in 09-10. I'm ahead of my total for last winter as well. Was about 23" at this time, this year I'm 25.5".

58.1 was their final tally for the season (36.6 in Feb.). After this season, their reputation as a snow hole may be slightly (or temporarily) diminished. Lol.

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  On 1/8/2011 at 11:32 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

It would not surprise me to see Orient see little if anything and East Hampton to get 6 inches in this one...I think the north fork will see much less

SG, what's causing this weird track and suppression with this?

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  On 1/8/2011 at 11:38 PM, William said:

SUNY model seems to have a pretty good handle on it...only strange thing is what happens to the snow between 1z and 2z...

when you have time can you make a thread like last year with snowfall amounts at major stations for the east coast...i enjoy reading and watching that thread last year.

Thanks.....thats a stern looking man in ur avatar

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  On 1/8/2011 at 11:40 PM, Diego said:

58.1 was their final tally for the season (36.6 in Feb.). After this season, their reputation as a snow hole may be slightly (or temporarily) diminished. Lol.

I remember when we used to consider the boardwalk a tropical get away ;)

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  On 1/8/2011 at 11:41 PM, A-L-E-X said:

SG, what's causing this weird track and suppression with this?

S NJ was basically aided by the 500 vort which pushed across the area...however, as the surface low formed all the energy pushed out towards the surface low as opposed to contnuing to rotate up the coast...the area would have done better if no surface low formed, though I doubt anyone would have seen more than 2 inches.

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  On 1/8/2011 at 11:46 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

S NJ was basically aided by the 500 vort which pushed across the area...however, as the surface low formed all the energy pushed out towards the surface low as opposed to contnuing to rotate up the coast...the area would have done better if no surface low formed, though I doubt anyone would have seen more than 2 inches.

Sounds like the usual case of intensification leading to a narrower band of heavy precip lol.

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  On 1/8/2011 at 11:27 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

Where are you? If you're west of the Nassau/Suffolk border its basically over...east of there I still anticipate 3-5 inches will fall over the south fork of LI and maybe 1-2 into central Suffolk.

My guess would be that anyone west of the William Floyd Pkwy will not see anything appreciable

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  On 1/8/2011 at 11:46 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

S NJ was basically aided by the 500 vort which pushed across the area...however, as the surface low formed all the energy pushed out towards the surface low as opposed to contnuing to rotate up the coast...the area would have done better if no surface low formed, though I doubt anyone would have seen more than 2 inches.

Thanks for this explanation, makes things very clear to the not-so-savvy such as myself!

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  On 1/8/2011 at 11:46 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

S NJ was basically aided by the 500 vort which pushed across the area...however, as the surface low formed all the energy pushed out towards the surface low as opposed to contnuing to rotate up the coast...the area would have done better if no surface low formed, though I doubt anyone would have seen more than 2 inches.

These past few days have provided some delightful meteorological theatre for professionals and hobbyists alike - it's been pretty fascinating to behold these 3 distinct events ... especially the interactions of several unique and sometimes quirky features at seemingly all distance scales.

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