Rtd208 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 NOWCASTING, that is all I have to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 At this point it looks like about 1 - 4 inches across NYC and L.I.....and the 4 inches may be pushing it. Will see if the 0z runs show any major changes... I agree, seems as though convergence is weaker with each run. An inch or two of fluff to freshen up the snowpack, looking forward to it! Although, the higher terrain of nw nj se ny, and the litchfield hills of ct should get a bit more perhaps 2-5, time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 NOWCASTING, that is all I have to say. Yes, back to topic. Some nice radar returns in southern Ohio. Vis down to a mile at Rickenbacker Air Base - prob below in a few spots. Some light stuff in WPa. Parts of our region are less than 12 hours away from some action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 His amounts are much higher than the 12z suite which has a consensus forecast around .25"-.3" QPF for the NYC metro area....he also takes no regard for elevation/terrain effects in the map, so that's why many are claiming it's unrealistic. I'd personally go 2-4" for NYC, less to the SW and more to the NE....3-5" stripe from Westchester through SW CT and parts of LI, and a few isolated 6"+ totals in higher areas like the Catskills and Gunks. He gave his reasons for not taking model qpf at face value. FWIW, I agree with him in that regard. I'd say that someone gets a surprise heavy dump tomorrow, but it shouldn't really be a surprise when it happens. Aside from terrain enhanced maxes in the Catskills, etc., I happen to think LI/Southern CT are the most likely places for this based on past experience. I'd probably go a bit lower than 4" regionwide as a baseline outside of the heaviest band, but thats just me. He is a snow hound, no doubt about it and lets that affect his forecasts, but the criticism of his latest forecast by several in this thread based on amateur model reading was uncalled for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The 12z NAM's extention of the stronger vertical velocities and more favorable dynamics are the reason why it developed the band further south and west. This is absent from the 18z/06 OP run and also has been absent from the GFS and ECMWF for a few runs now. That can be taken with a grain of salt given the lower resolution of the GFS--but I would like to see the ECMWF come back a little wetter than it's previous runs. The NAM was definitely out to lunch with the strength of this feature and the H5 shortwave track aloft last night--and it developed QPF numbers way too high as a result. It remains to be seen where this is going to develop, but somebody is going to get heavy snow under this thin band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 At this point it looks like about 1 - 4 inches across NYC and L.I.....and the 4 inches may be pushing it. Will see if the 0z runs show any major changes... I'm not the last word, but I haven't changed my opinion of the potential yet. The 18z GFS lost the details, but the NAM and high res models are still showing it. There will of course be have's and have nots, but still expect a pretty good dumping in part of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 If you only knew how many typos I go back and edit. Somehow I missed that one. Edit made. Fair enough. This is the type of setup that could have a measurable difference in snow from commack to smithtown. At the very least I look forward to watching it evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 How does Western Nassau County fare in this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 How does Western Nassau County fare in this? check back this time tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Lol absolute mayhem in the supermarket here (Shoprite). I do suspect people are freaked out about 2" of snow now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Lol absolute mayhem in the supermarket here (Shoprite). I do suspect people are freaked out about 2" of snow now People - including Mayor Bloomberg - are so reactive sometimes... if the blizzard hadn't happened 2 weeks ago, no one would care about this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Heres an excellent write up by Steve D on tomorrows snow. http://www.nynjpaweather.com/public-forecasts/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 True. Not one cart was available which almost never happens. Waiting now over 15 mins to get out of the parking lot People - including Mayor Bloomberg - are so reactive sometimes... if the blizzard hadn't happened 2 weeks ago, no one would care about this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 coooling nicely out there tonight. down to 27 here with a dewpoint of 19. im becoming less concerned with temp issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Certainly cold enough for any snow to stick right away. 20.6/16 right now in Colts Neck under clear skies, calm winds. 4-5" of glacier still remaining on the ground as of this evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 And even if temps do creep to the freezing mark or slightly above tomorrow, the ground is cold. There's been tons of ice on the sidewalks and streets this week, even during the day in the sun with temps in the mid to upper 30s. It doesn't matter to me how much snow we get, as long as its something. Still have several inches on the ground in the backyard from the last storm along with lots of piles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The 12z NAM's extention of the stronger vertical velocities and more favorable dynamics are the reason why it developed the band further south and west. This is absent from the 18z/06 OP run and also has been absent from the GFS and ECMWF for a few runs now. That can be taken with a grain of salt given the lower resolution of the GFS--but I would like to see the ECMWF come back a little wetter than it's previous runs. The NAM was definitely out to lunch with the strength of this feature and the H5 shortwave track aloft last night--and it developed QPF numbers way too high as a result. It remains to be seen where this is going to develop, but somebody is going to get heavy snow under this thin band. Agree John. I suspect the element of surprise still exists w/ this forecast in that I would not be surprised to see the band more intense than progged, which may lead to those locallized 6"+ totals I mentioned earlier. Norluns are usually nowcast events anyway, so we probably aren't going to know who will get the most snow until we see real-time radar trends late tonight/tomorrow morning (aka as its happening). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 whats going on south of LI and on MTK is that the trough setting up already...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 whats going on south of LI and on MTK is that the trough setting up already...? RUC and NAM have been showing this feature for a while. don't be surprised to see a few flurries spit out of it, even before midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 whats going on south of LI and on MTK is that the trough setting up already...? http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=OKX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=40.84149170&lon=-73.28043365&label=Commack,%20NY&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 almost looks like a vague circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 http://www.wundergro...f=9999&smooth=0 almost looks like a vague circulation. ive been watching in on my itouch radar and had to check underground just to make sure it wasnt off its rocker sure enough it was rite,wonder if we will be surprised? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looking at the only site that has good graphics on UKMET precip. indicates an enhanced area of snowfall on eastern L.I. for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 whats going on south of LI and on MTK is that the trough setting up already...? In a manner of speaking yes. The 18z NAM shows this, although the radar returns over MTP and vicinity look a little stronger and a couple of hours ahead of the NAM schedule. 0Z run should be very interesting. I've got to run an errand, so it'll probably be in before I get home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 In a manner of speaking yes. The 18z NAM shows this, although the radar returns over MTP and vicinity look a little stronger and a couple of hours ahead of the NAM schedule. 0Z run should be very interesting. I've got to run an errand, so it'll probably be in before I get home. RGEM showed this yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Another night below forecast and into the 10s here. 17.7/14 right now. Only a couple degrees milder than the 16F at MJX. Snowpack enhancing the radiational cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 00z NAM is more impressive w/ the convergence/vertical velocities at H7 for tomorrow morning. Band is also further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 If anyone is interested per JB regarding NYC snows.... "this is not the classic Norlun trough. This trough is coming from the southwest and its the large scale dynamics that over the trough that is causing the snow. The same trough over the Ohio valley with the same dynamics would cause the same thing. So the trough is going to migrate northeast with the upper height falls and by the time it stalls as the upper flow turns more southerly , it will be northeast of the city. So I am in the 1-3 inch category in the city, with the amounts over 3 on the island and to the northeast" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 00z NAM is more impressive w/ the convergence/vertical velocities at H7 for tomorrow morning. Band is also further south. The time frame from morning rush through about 1pm could get dicey in much of NJ w/ pretty steady snow falling, which would likely stick rather quickly given wet bulbs. NAM simulated radar indicates some embedded echos up to 30 dbz within the convergence banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Another night below forecast and into the 10s here. 17.7/14 right now. Only a couple degrees milder than the 16F at MJX. Snowpack enhancing the radiational cooling. Same here-sitting at 20 right on the CT shoreline--anywhere from 4-10 inches of cement on the ground in most places from the last storm....it is clouding up now though, so figure we're bottoming out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The time frame from morning rush through about 1pm could get dicey in much of NJ w/ pretty steady snow falling, which would likely stick rather quickly given wet bulbs. NAM simulated radar indicates some embedded echos up to 30 dbz within the convergence banding. agree tom...going to be fun....nam has all of nj .10+ and the city east .25+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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