ELCwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I'm not sure if we're supposed to suck it up because we live in New England, but even as of 9:30pm, many main roads including 7 and 84 are still relatively unplowed in certain lanes/sections. I hear ya. Just drove from Danbury to Shelton. Ridiculous. Budget cuts FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 RGEM looks like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Got screwed here in Monmouth County today with nothing, and I think we make up for it tomorrow. I'm very close to that 0.5"+ QPF area, and the NAM has been trending more impressive w/ the mid level energy and vv's at H7. Pretty good rates possible tomorrow w/ embedded 30-35 dbz depicted in banding. Surface temperatures will also be more conducive to sticking. We'll see but I'd say NYC shouldn't write this off either - may be another nowcast situation. South Jersey could pick up a half a foot in spots, with 4"+ as far north as LI and CNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 nam qpf output KNYC .12 KJFK .22 KLGA .14 KEWR .15 KBDR .18 KISP .32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Before or after it had it nailing me in NW NJ with 1.1 inches of qpf? I actually got .18 Ended up with 2.5" after a light dusting late this afternoon. 0.10 in the heated rain gauge so looks like ratios were indeed in the 20:1 range. Tomorrow looks like it will leave us here in NW NJ on the outer fringes. Maybe 1-2" or perhaps even nothing at all. Seems we have been missing out alot lately. Not totally missing out but definitely siting on the fringes many times. The time will come when it changes to rain along I-95 and we get 10+ and once again you and I will be all smiles in the hills of NW NJ. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yes, I got 2.75 here with .18 liquid. The Euro has us in on the action tomorrow. Let's hope it is right and the NAM is wrong. Radar echoes are already north of I-80 to our west in central PA. You know things are crazy when your mother in Asbury Park is getting more snow than you are in NW NJ two years in a row. Ended up with 2.5" after a light dusting late this afternoon. 0.10 in the heated rain gauge so looks like ratios were indeed in the 20:1 range. Tomorrow looks like it will leave us here in NW NJ on the outer fringes. Maybe 1-2" or perhaps even nothing at all. Seems we have been missing out alot lately. Not totally missing out but definitely siting on the fringes many times. The time will come when it changes to rain along I-95 and we get 10+ and once again you and I will be all smiles in the hills of NW NJ. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yes, I got 2.75 here with .18 liquid. The Euro has us in on the action tomorrow. Let's hope it is right and the NAM is wrong. Euro is encouraging but latest NAM is nothing much to get excited about. Oh how 50-75 miles can make a difference in a nuisance and something to get excited about. Still keeping my eyes on Tues/Weds. Could be interesting or yet again a sleep depriving dissapointment. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 So, it is not just me? I thought I was the only crazy one in NW NJ. Euro is encouraging but latest NAM is nothing much to get excited about. Oh how 50-75 miles can make a difference in a nuisance and something to get excited about. Still keeping my eyes on Tues/Weds. Could be interesting or yet again a sleep depriving dissapointment. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 BTW, today was day 13 with a snow depth of 4" or greater here. I'm ahead of last year's count by almost a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Ugh, the RGEM is stuck at 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Before or after it had it nailing me in NW NJ with 1.1 inches of qpf? I actually got .18 I may have misread, but I thought that tmagan was distrusting the NAM because he felt it was modeling too much qpf. In any event, last nights run did a good job with the placement of todays snow / heaviest snow, if not so much with the amounts. Its normally very reliable within this time frame, but not much has been normal lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 So, it is not just me? I thought I was the only crazy one in NW NJ. We can start our own sub forum and only post qpf out puts from MMU and FWN since no one else ever does. Of course we will be the only two there. lol MM5 is slowly coming out. Let us see what it holds for tomorrow though I think the NAM / RGEM probably have figured out the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 FWIW, RUC is showing a line band of snow across the mid-Atlantic region, including +SN for S NJ and DE by tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 hr 18 on the gfs light snow up to nyc.... hr 21 mod snow up to holmdel nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 hr 24 light snow continues....but seems to be moving out .10+ from middelsex county nj south...and .25+ for se nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 hr 30 light snow continues for long island.... .10+ for pretty much the whole island.... nyc close to .10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Hey count me in with you crazies. JDT is so right that we always seem to be on the fringe of these events the past 2+ years and in reading the PHL AFD it appears opnce again the coast is favored over the interior for the best chance of accumulating snow. Think the whole climatology of NJ is changing and its time to head to the shore or Long Island for the big time snows. Actually quite amazing how the pattern from last year has just carried right over into this year (least as far as bigger snow totals in NJ/NYC area) though the Pacific is completely different. So, it is not just me? I thought I was the only crazy one in NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 For those who might be disappointed by tonight's GFS for tomorrow, let it be known that it looks much better than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 i thought we'd get a little help for the island peeps. I live in Jax heights, but grew up on the South Shore in Eastern Nassau. Wanted to see them get rewarded for todays let down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Here is the RGEM at 24 hours. So close for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 the RGEM is PAINFULLY close for NYC/LI!! UGHHH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 What is the model error within one day out in average? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 boy, another tough forecast indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Hey count me in with you crazies. JDT is so right that we always seem to be on the fringe of these events the past 2+ years and in reading the PHL AFD it appears opnce again the coast is favored over the interior for the best chance of accumulating snow. Think the whole climatology of NJ is changing and its time to head to the shore or Long Island for the big time snows. Actually quite amazing how the pattern from last year has just carried right over into this year (least as far as bigger snow totals in NJ/NYC area) though the Pacific is completely different. OK we have three lets start a NW NJ sub forum! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 What is the model error within one day out in average? 30-50 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 reports of 15-18" in southern litchfield county.. 84 still closed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 reports of 15-18" in southern litchfield county.. 84 still closed WHERE ARE THESE REPORTS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 30-50 miles Wow, Snowgoose, that is either a 3-6, or 4-8 for Middlesex, or a 2-4 inch as per the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Wow, Snowgoose, that is either a 3-6, or 4-8 for Middlesex, or a 2-4 inch as per the NWS. 1 to max 2 inches in northern middlesex county. Anything else...we got lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 1 to max 2 inches in northern middlesex county. Anything else...we got lucky I think 2-4 inches is a good call, as the system is a bit complex. I meant with the error added, a 50 mile shift N or NE and Middlesex county is in warning criteria. Will that happen? The answer is we may not know until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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