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NYC 1/7-1/8 Regional Discussion and Obs


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Heavy snow band over western Suffolk hasn't reached here yet, but looking at the radar, the band over eastern New Haven COunty is the real Norlun deal. If that stays around for any length of time, someone will get 10" there by this evening. Northern Fairfield could yet tack on an inch or two so probably some spots there may apoproach 10". Norlun, like lake effect = Haves and Have nots.

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Upton updated for tomorrow:

Saturday: A chance of snow showers, mainly after 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 33. North wind between 5 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Saturday Night: A chance of snow showers, mainly before 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Northwest wind between 11 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

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SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE

EASTERN GREAT LAKES SAT MORNING...TRACKING TO JUST EAST OF THE CWA

BY SAT EVENING. THEN THINGS GET INTERESTING AS A 140 KT UPPER JET

AND VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW INDUCING

SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS THE UPPER LOW TO THE S AND E OF THE

AREA. THIS SAME ENERGY WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF

LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AT THIS TIME. THE

QUESTION HOW FAR NORTH AN INVERTED TROUGH SLIDING UP THROUGH

SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NJ GETS...AND HOW QUICKLY IT DISSIPATES...AND

HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE OFFSHORE LOW INTENSIFICATION TAKES PLACE.

MODEL CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE THE LOW TRACKING JUST SE OF THE 40/70

BENCHMARK SAT EVENING...AND THEN QUICKLY TRACKING NE SAT NIGHT...TO

THE EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY.

THE COMBINED MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY/LIFT OF THE UPPER LOW...INVERTED

TROUGH LIFTING NE FROM CENTRAL JERSEY...AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE

FROM THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SHOULD HAVE SCT TO NUMEROUS SNOW

SHOWER DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION SAT AFTERNOON. IF THE

INVERTED TROUGH SLIDES FAR ENOUGH NORTH SAT AFTERNOON...COULD SEE A

PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NYC AND NE NJ. SAT EVENING THE EVENT

TRANSITIONS TO COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LONGEST DURATION AND

INTENSITY OF SNOW EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA

CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE LOW. ALSO INCREASING INDICATIONS THAT THE

EASTERN 1/3RD OF THE REGION MAY BE AFFECTED BY A PERIOD OF HEAVIER

DEFORMATION BANDING SAT NIGHT. CURRENTLY APPEARS THERE IS POTENTIAL

FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LI AND SE CONN

BY SUNDAY MORNING (2 TO 4 INCHES). FURTHER WEST ACROSS ACROSS NYC

AND POINTS NW...GENERALLY LOOKING AT AN INCH OR LESS AS THIS REGION

WILL LIKELY BE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THE INVERTED TROUGH TO

THE SOUTH AND DEVELOPING LOW TO THE EAST. SINCE THIS IS A 3RD PERIOD

EVENT AND WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER SUITE OF MODEL RUNS WILL HOLD

OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. A SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OR

SOUTHWEST OF LOW PRESSURE OR INVERTED TROUGH WOULD RESULT IN

DRAMATICALLY HIGHER/LOWER SNOW TOTALS RESPECTIVELY...SO PLEASE

MONITOR FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

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Terrific write-up, sir... as per usual.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE

EASTERN GREAT LAKES SAT MORNING...TRACKING TO JUST EAST OF THE CWA

BY SAT EVENING. THEN THINGS GET INTERESTING AS A 140 KT UPPER JET

AND VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW INDUCING

SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS THE UPPER LOW TO THE S AND E OF THE

AREA. THIS SAME ENERGY WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF

LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AT THIS TIME. THE

QUESTION HOW FAR NORTH AN INVERTED TROUGH SLIDING UP THROUGH

SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NJ GETS...AND HOW QUICKLY IT DISSIPATES...AND

HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE OFFSHORE LOW INTENSIFICATION TAKES PLACE.

MODEL CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE THE LOW TRACKING JUST SE OF THE 40/70

BENCHMARK SAT EVENING...AND THEN QUICKLY TRACKING NE SAT NIGHT...TO

THE EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY.

THE COMBINED MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY/LIFT OF THE UPPER LOW...INVERTED

TROUGH LIFTING NE FROM CENTRAL JERSEY...AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE

FROM THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SHOULD HAVE SCT TO NUMEROUS SNOW

SHOWER DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION SAT AFTERNOON. IF THE

INVERTED TROUGH SLIDES FAR ENOUGH NORTH SAT AFTERNOON...COULD SEE A

PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NYC AND NE NJ. SAT EVENING THE EVENT

TRANSITIONS TO COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LONGEST DURATION AND

INTENSITY OF SNOW EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA

CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE LOW. ALSO INCREASING INDICATIONS THAT THE

EASTERN 1/3RD OF THE REGION MAY BE AFFECTED BY A PERIOD OF HEAVIER

DEFORMATION BANDING SAT NIGHT. CURRENTLY APPEARS THERE IS POTENTIAL

FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LI AND SE CONN

BY SUNDAY MORNING (2 TO 4 INCHES). FURTHER WEST ACROSS ACROSS NYC

AND POINTS NW...GENERALLY LOOKING AT AN INCH OR LESS AS THIS REGION

WILL LIKELY BE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THE INVERTED TROUGH TO

THE SOUTH AND DEVELOPING LOW TO THE EAST. SINCE THIS IS A 3RD PERIOD

EVENT AND WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER SUITE OF MODEL RUNS WILL HOLD

OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. A SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OR

SOUTHWEST OF LOW PRESSURE OR INVERTED TROUGH WOULD RESULT IN

DRAMATICALLY HIGHER/LOWER SNOW TOTALS RESPECTIVELY...SO PLEASE

MONITOR FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

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Well we just got hammered here the last 30 minutes with 3"/hr rates. Picked up a very quick 1 1/2" from an explosion of popcorn sized flakes. The snow is plastered on everything but is quickly coming to an end. Whoever gets into this band will get a snow weenie rush

This seems like a summer time squall or t-shower. The leading edge reached here and then it suddenly stopped and dried out as the cell intensified back to the west. Western Suffolk is looking crazy right now, both on the radar and the traffic cams. Its starting to spit snow again here just in the past few seconds...hopefully this won't fall apart like so many do in the summer.

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Upton updated for tomorrow:

Saturday: A chance of snow showers, mainly after 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 33. North wind between 5 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Saturday Night: A chance of snow showers, mainly before 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Northwest wind between 11 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

For long island says Upton says snow LIKELY :thumbsup:

Saturday: A chance of snow showers after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Calm wind becoming north between 5 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Saturday Night: Snow likely, mainly before 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 25. Blustery, with a north wind 10 to 13 mph increasing to between 18 and 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

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This seems like a summer time squall or t-shower. The leading edge reached here and then it suddenly stopped and dried out as the cell intensified back to the west. Western Suffolk is looking crazy right now, both on the radar and the traffic cams. Its starting to spit snow again here just in the past few seconds...hopefully this won't fall apart like so many do in the summer.

The radar really lit up as the last band made landfall. It actually saved the day because I had nothing up to now. Hope it holds together for you.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

433 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2011

...SNOW EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT...

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067-069-071>075-176>179-072245-

/O.CAN.KOKX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-110107T2200Z/

WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-

EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-

EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-ROCKLAND-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-

NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-

KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-

SOUTHERN NASSAU-

433 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

SNOW HAS ENDED...THEREFORE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON

HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

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