NEXtreme Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 He's one of the only ones, and the only one with the highest area over Long Island. My thoughts and opinions are fairly irrelevant, but I've never flip flopped and have said the NY area will see a general light event with the potential for isolated areas to see 6"+, potentially up to a foot in the heaviest spots. It's naive to think that someone could pinpoint the exact area of heaviest snows though, and his "expertise" has been shown to be extremely faulty in the past. Anyone recall Vday '07? Its sad that some people don't know how to read and actually listen to what Steve is actually saying. Damn if you have to go all the way back 4 years to find a bust then that's a heck of a great track record . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Steve has a history of being overly aggressive when it comes to extreme weather (particularly snow), not just for the NYC metro but for I-95 in general. Personally I'd rank him alongside Analog96 as one of the region's unrealistically optimistic mets when it comes to snow which is fine when we have a large event, but in general, I wouldn't rely on him to forecast a snowstorm. We'll see come verification time on Saturday whether I'm right or wrong in this case. If you lived in Monmouth/Ocean County, NJ during the blizzard you would have come away saying he was the most accurate of all who gave forecasts. That forecast were issued well in advance of every other service group or meteorologist on this board. Just a fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Its sad that some people don't know how to read and actually listen to what Steve is actually saying. Damn if you have to go all the way back 4 years to find a bust then that's a heck of a great track record . His amounts are much higher than the 12z suite which has a consensus forecast around .25"-.3" QPF for the NYC metro area....he also takes no regard for elevation/terrain effects in the map, so that's why many are claiming it's unrealistic. I'd personally go 2-4" for NYC, less to the SW and more to the NE....3-5" stripe from Westchester through SW CT and parts of LI, and a few isolated 6"+ totals in higher areas like the Catskills and Gunks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 His amounts are much higher than the 12z suite which has a consensus forecast around .25"-.3" QPF for the NYC metro area....he also takes no regard for elevation/terrain effects in the map, so that's why many are claiming it's unrealistic. I'd personally go 2-4" for NYC, less to the SW and more to the NE....3-5" stripe from Westchester through SW CT and parts of LI, and a few isolated 6"+ totals in higher areas like the Catskills and Gunks. We wont know if he is correct or not until tommorw evening. Why are we bashing him now? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 From the blog Short Term Polar vortex will shift east/southeast and heights will lower dramatically towards our area. Shortwave escaping off the southeast coast will develop a coastal storm system well out to sea. The main interest for our area is a strong shortwave modeled to move from southwest to northeast around the upper level low to our northwest. Most models have backed off a bit with the strength of this feature...but still move it from Central PA into Central NY mid day Friday. With a moisture convergence boundary in place to our southwest this shortwave should provide enhanced forcing for development of precipitation..in the form of moderate snow. A thin band should move southwest to northeast during the day Friday. Within this band..moderate to heavy snow could fall. It should be noted that guidance has backed off on the development of an inverted trough/norlun trough type feature. Instead..they are moving the boundary along rather swiftly---until it reaches an area just north of the NYC Metro, where it attempts to pivot. The 18z/06 NAM supports this general track and development. The uncertainty still has multiple faces. Firstly--model guidance can be very poor in timing these features. Second, they can also be very poor in picking up on the strength of the feature and the heavy snow that occurs inside the banding (leading to poor/smoothed out QPF forecasts). For this reason we took a blend of the SPC WRF and 12z/18z NAM and 15z SREF mean which leaves us with a 1-3/2-4 inch snowfall across most of the area..with potential amounts higher than 3 or 4 inches across Central Long Island..North New Jersey..Southeast New York..and Southwest Connecticut..where most models have the banding slowing and pivoting. This is a situation that will likely require careful monitoring overnight through Friday. Still--we don't think this is a warning criteria event with the lack of a stalled norlun or inverted trough. It's very hard to get snowfall amounts higher than 5 inches with a boundary moving southwest to northeast and the shortwave off to our northwest. Is it possible? Yes, especially in higher elevations or favored areas. Is it likely? No, we don't think so. Another concern is the surface temperatures..which most model guidance has above freezing on Long Island..near freezing in the city itself..and slightly below freezing inland. Areas along the coast or in the city itself could see some snow melt on contact initially. Still..be prepared for this band of snow..especially now that most models line it up with the afternoon or evening commute. It could bring very low visibilities and poor travel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 If you lived in Monmouth/Ocean County, NJ during the blizzard you would have come away saying he was the most accurate of all who gave forecasts. That forecast were issued well in advance of every other service group or meteorologist on this board. Just a fact. I read that he was actually bashed by a met from NBC who said to him that the storm wasn't going to happen. Actually he was the only one saying that someone would get 30 inches or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 From the blog I like your call. Think the low end is the way to go with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metro Devils Fan Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 From the blog Short Term Polar vortex will shift east/southeast and heights will lower dramatically towards our area. Shortwave escaping off the southeast coast will develop a coastal storm system well out to sea. The main interest for our area is a strong shortwave modeled to move from southwest to northeast around the upper level low to our northwest. Most models have backed off a bit with the strength of this feature...but still move it from Central PA into Central NY mid day Friday. With a moisture convergence boundary in place to our southwest this shortwave should provide enhanced forcing for development of precipitation..in the form of moderate snow. A thin band should move southwest to northeast during the day Friday. Within this band..moderate to heavy snow could fall. It should be noted that guidance has backed off on the development of an inverted trough/norlun trough type feature. Instead..they are moving the boundary along rather swiftly---until it reaches an area just north of the NYC Metro, where it attempts to pivot. The 18z/06 NAM supports this general track and development. The uncertainty still has multiple faces. Firstly--model guidance can be very poor in timing these features. Second, they can also be very poor in picking up on the strength of the feature and the heavy snow that occurs inside the banding (leading to poor/smoothed out QPF forecasts). For this reason we took a blend of the SPC WRF and 12z/18z NAM and 15z SREF mean which leaves us with a 1-3/2-4 inch snowfall across most of the area..with potential amounts higher than 3 or 4 inches across Central Long Island..North New Jersey..Southeast New York..and Southwest Connecticut..where most models have the banding slowing and pivoting. This is a situation that will likely require careful monitoring overnight through Friday. Still--we don't think this is a warning criteria event with the lack of a stalled norlun or inverted trough. It's very hard to get snowfall amounts higher than 5 inches with a boundary moving southwest to northeast and the shortwave off to our northwest. Is it possible? Yes, especially in higher elevations or favored areas. Is it likely? No, we don't think so. Another concern is the surface temperatures..which most model guidance has above freezing on Long Island..near freezing in the city itself..and slightly below freezing inland. Areas along the coast or in the city itself could see some snow melt on contact initially. Still..be prepared for this band of snow..especially now that most models line it up with the afternoon or evening commute. It could bring very low visibilities and poor travel. great map and discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 From the blog Short Term Polar vortex will shift east/southeast and heights will lower dramatically towards our area. Shortwave escaping off the southeast coast will develop a coastal storm system well out to sea. The main interest for our area is a strong shortwave modeled to move from southwest to northeast around the upper level low to our northwest. Most models have backed off a bit with the strength of this feature...but still move it from Central PA into Central NY mid day Friday. With a moisture convergence boundary in place to our southwest this shortwave should provide enhanced forcing for development of precipitation..in the form of moderate snow. A thin band should move southwest to northeast during the day Friday. Within this band..moderate to heavy snow could fall. It should be noted that guidance has backed off on the development of an inverted trough/norlun trough type feature. Instead..they are moving the boundary along rather swiftly---until it reaches an area just north of the NYC Metro, where it attempts to pivot. The 18z/06 NAM supports this general track and development. The uncertainty still has multiple faces. Firstly--model guidance can be very poor in timing these features. Second, they can also be very poor in picking up on the strength of the feature and the heavy snow that occurs inside the banding (leading to poor/smoothed out QPF forecasts). For this reason we took a blend of the SPC WRF and 12z/18z NAM and 15z SREF mean which leaves us with a 1-3/2-4 inch snowfall across most of the area..with potential amounts higher than 3 or 4 inches across Central Long Island..North New Jersey..Southeast New York..and Southwest Connecticut..where most models have the banding slowing and pivoting. This is a situation that will likely require careful monitoring overnight through Friday. Still--we don't think this is a warning criteria event with the lack of a stalled norlun or inverted trough. It's very hard to get snowfall amounts higher than 5 inches with a boundary moving southwest to northeast and the shortwave off to our northwest. Is it possible? Yes, especially in higher elevations or favored areas. Is it likely? No, we don't think so. Another concern is the surface temperatures..which most model guidance has above freezing on Long Island..near freezing in the city itself..and slightly below freezing inland. Areas along the coast or in the city itself could see some snow melt on contact initially. Still..be prepared for this band of snow..especially now that most models line it up with the afternoon or evening commute. It could bring very low visibilities and poor travel. What's the ceiling of your 3-4"+ call? 6 or 7"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Look at this point he has his reasonings for his forecast. We don't have to agree with them. We'll all know what happens soon enough. Bashing beforehand is ridiculous however I read that he was actually bashed by a met from NBC who said to him that the storm wasn't going to happen. Actually he was the only one saying that someone would get 30 inches or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 His winter forecast has been spot on. While many have been calling for a mild winter, especially for a warm January he's been saying the opposite and reasoning behind it. Hows all those warm winter forecasts and not much snow doing so far? La Nina my a$!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 From the blog Short Term Polar vortex will shift east/southeast and heights will lower dramatically towards our area. Shortwave escaping off the southeast coast will develop a coastal storm system well out to sea. The main interest for our area is a strong shortwave modeled to move from southwest to northeast around the upper level low to our northwest. Most models have backed off a bit with the strength of this feature...but still move it from Central PA into Central NY mid day Friday. With a moisture convergence boundary in place to our southwest this shortwave should provide enhanced forcing for development of precipitation..in the form of moderate snow. A thin band should move southwest to northeast during the day Friday. Within this band..moderate to heavy snow could fall. It should be noted that guidance has backed off on the development of an inverted trough/norlun trough type feature. Instead..they are moving the boundary along rather swiftly---until it reaches an area just north of the NYC Metro, where it attempts to pivot. The 18z/06 NAM supports this general track and development. The uncertainty still has multiple faces. Firstly--model guidance can be very poor in timing these features. Second, they can also be very poor in picking up on the strength of the feature and the heavy snow that occurs inside the banding (leading to poor/smoothed out QPF forecasts). For this reason we took a blend of the SPC WRF and 12z/18z NAM and 15z SREF mean which leaves us with a 1-3/2-4 inch snowfall across most of the area..with potential amounts higher than 3 or 4 inches across Central Long Island..North New Jersey..Southeast New York..and Southwest Connecticut..where most models have the banding slowing and pivoting. This is a situation that will likely require careful monitoring overnight through Friday. Still--we don't think this is a warning criteria event with the lack of a stalled norlun or inverted trough. It's very hard to get snowfall amounts higher than 5 inches with a boundary moving southwest to northeast and the shortwave off to our northwest. Is it possible? Yes, especially in higher elevations or favored areas. Is it likely? No, we don't think so. Another concern is the surface temperatures..which most model guidance has above freezing on Long Island..near freezing in the city itself..and slightly below freezing inland. Areas along the coast or in the city itself could see some snow melt on contact initially. Still..be prepared for this band of snow..especially now that most models line it up with the afternoon or evening commute. It could bring very low visibilities and poor travel. Good, call.. I hope you bust too low of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 What's the ceiling of your 3-4"+ call? 6 or 7"? Thanks for the comments dudes. I'd put the ceiling at 6 for anyone with "normal" elevation. And that would require the band to slow down a bit, too. Some elevated area in SE NY..N NJ will probably get 5-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Steve has a history of being overly aggressive when it comes to extreme weather (particularly snow), not just for the NYC metro but for I-95 in general. Personally I'd rank him alongside Analog96 as one of the region's unrealistically optimistic mets when it comes to snow which is fine when we have a large event, but in general, I wouldn't rely on him to forecast a snowstorm. We'll see come verification time on Saturday whether I'm right or wrong in this case. I don't necessarily disagree with your statement, but think it's a conversation for Saturday morning rather than prior to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 With the 3:40 update, OKX is going with advisory level snows (3-5") in the immediate N&W burbs, looks like 2-4" in the city itself, jackpots of 7" New City area & north. Guess Advisories will be out shortly. I'd put the ceiling at 6 for anyone with "normal" elevation. And that would require the band to slow down a bit, too. Some elevated area in SE NY..N NJ will probably get 5-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 NAM continues to shift heaviest axis NE, as I talked about earlier this morning and last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 NAM continues to shift heaviest axis NE, as I talked about earlier this morning and last night. Map? agree that this would go NE-tends to be more of a NE special with this norlun trough setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 With the 3:40 update, OKX is going with advisory level snows (3-5") in the immediate N&W burbs, looks like 2-4" in the city itself, jackpots of 7" New City area & north. Guess Advisories will be out shortly. Yeah looks like they are going with upwards of 8" or so for this particular area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yeah looks like they are going with upwards of 8" or so for this particular area.. No they're not. ...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. * LOCATIONS...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND. * HAZARDS...SNOW...WHICH MAY BE HEAVY FOR A PERIOD LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY 4 TO 7 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 </h3> <h3>Winter Weather AdvisoryURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 357 PM EST THU JAN 6 2011 ...SNOW EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING... NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ072>075-078-080-176>179-070500- /O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0001.110107T1100Z-110108T1100Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0001.110107T0900Z-110108T0600Z/ WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN- EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION- EASTERN UNION-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)- KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 357 PM EST THU JAN 6 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...THE 5 BOROUGHS OF NYC...WESTERN LONG ISLAND...AND NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. * HAZARDS...SNOW...WHICH MAY BE HEAVY FOR A PERIOD LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. * ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY 2 TO 5 INCHES. * VISIBILITIES...GENERALLY 1 TO 3 MILES...BUT 1/2 MILE OR LESS IN HEAVIER SNOW BAND. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW BEGINS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HEAVIER BAND EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRANSLATE EAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE EVENING...AND MAY IMPACT AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TRAVEL. THE TIMING OF THE BAND COULD CHANGE A BIT...SO PLEASE MONITOR UPDATED FORECASTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 He's one of the only ones, and the only one with the highest area over Long Island. My thoughts and opinions are fairly irrelevant, but I've never flip flopped and have said the NY area will see a general light event with the potential for isolated areas to see 6"+, potentially up to a foot in the heaviest spots. It's naive to think that someone could pinpoint the exact area of heaviest snows though, and his "expertise" has been shown to be extremely faulty in the past. Anyone recall Vday '07? This is the same guy who won weenie-of-the-year... so you really don't have any right to tear down anyone else... especially someone with a degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Let's keep the disco on the storm dudes. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The interesting thing is that the models have generally given either the NE or the Central Part of New Jersey the greater quantity of the qpf. I would still watch the high resolution models tonight to have a more specific outlook, as the difference between 1-3 and 3-6 is quite large, and not a large amount of miles away from the densely populated areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 No they're not. Friday: Snow. High near 28. East wind around 6 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible This is what I meant when I said upwards of 8" or so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 No they're not. ...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. * LOCATIONS...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND. * HAZARDS...SNOW...WHICH MAY BE HEAVY FOR A PERIOD LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY 4 TO 7 INCHES. They're going with up to 8 inches in the watch area. See the latest ZFP. Looks like the zones in the watch area have 4-8 inch total snow forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Hey guys here's my forecast map and and link to discussion from 3PM today...In general agreement with Earthlight. http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-newark/general-1-3-event-on-the-way-for-nj-on-friday-bigger-storm-possible-next-week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Its sad that some people don't know how to read and actually listen to what Steve is actually saying. Damn if you have to go all the way back 4 years to find a bust then that's a heck of a great track record . There was a "met" named Steve I remember from a few years ago. OK I think he had an undergrad degree, so maybe not an actual met, but redtagger nonetheless. I think he was also conspicuously politically conservative. From what I can remember he overhyped almost everything and was a terrible met in general. Is this the same Steve by chance? If it is, I grant that he might have learned and improved since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Hey guys here's my forecast map and and link to discussion from 3PM today...In general agreement with Earthlight. Looks like we're in good agreement. Nice map and discussion bud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Convergence zone is rotating through pretty quick on the GFS. We're starting to lose this thing. Still could be a quick burst. And maybe an increasingly threat of light wraparound snows on Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 By the way most places stayed in the 30-34 range today, a bit below guidance. Probably means nothing but would certainly think we can get down into the 20s before precip starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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