buckeye Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 this might be the first thread ever to be pinned....un-pinned....and pinned again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 240hr 06z GFS is not for those with a weak heart. Siberian air would be a huge understatement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 240hr 06z GFS is not for those with a weak heart. Siberian air would be a huge understatement. Good thing when it is real cold the salt won't work. So I can keep my truck clean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Bundle up daddylonglegs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 GFS just keeps pushing this crap farther and farther away... Sure its still there, but its still 200hr+ away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 this might be the first thread ever to be pinned....un-pinned....and pinned again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Bundle up daddylonglegs Absolutely beautiful! Man, if only this could verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 6z is just ugly. Just a horrible period of subzero weather. Still a ways out there, so time for change. strongly agree (sorry Ottawa Blizzard) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I'm looking into a heated thong unit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I think i'm looking at the right EURO run and i really don't see anything too terribly cold on it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Now the 18z GFS torches again in the long range...no arctic air to be found at all. Just crazy...obviously we're in a pattern that's very sensitive to minor changes in initial conditions and the slightest perturbations in the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 18z is the warmest run yet.... Just insane. NWS guys must be going nuts watching these runs fluctuate this much. There has easily been 60F+ temp swings in the long range here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 18z is the warmest run yet.... Just insane. NWS guys must be going nuts watching these runs fluctuate this much. There has easily been 60F+ temp swings in the long range here. Ensembles don't support it, at least not as early as the 18z OP GFS is showing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 0z Euro gets very cold at the end of the run. The 510 line on the 500mb and the -20 line on the 850mb get down to the Ohio River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Man, it's like I drew the weather map. Just in time for the Quebec Winter Carnival too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I just threw up in my mouth a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 I just threw up in my mouth a little. You mean you don't like huge death ridges? Inversions FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Bump. Baro's arctic dump delayed but not denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Nooo...this thread wasn't supposed to be bumped yet! Anyway, pretty clear now imo that a good cold shot is coming, just a question of how cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Nooo...this thread wasn't supposed to be bumped yet! Anyway, pretty clear now imo that a good cold shot is coming, just a question of how cold. Bbbbwwwhhhaahhhhaa!!! That's my own way of trying to jinx it. I love snow and cold, but don't really like the teeth-chattering stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 Bbbbwwwhhhaahhhhaa!!! That's my own way of trying to jinx it. I love snow and cold, but don't really like the teeth-chattering stuff. Yeah, arctic outbreak try number three has officially been canceled. Hoosier put the finishing touches on it when he said it was "pretty clear". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 So we'll have to wait another 11-12 days before we get this arctic blast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Fort Nelson, BC. Was a 1050 mb and -37ºC 24 hours ago, but the high pressure must be moving, 1034 mb and a balmy -31ºC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Big story to me is the absolute collapse of what was supposed to be historic cold coming in late week on almost all the modelling. From historic to just seasonably cold in 18 hours of runs. Will be interesting to see if it was just some strange hiccup or the threat really is gone. just an amazing season with the mos... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 Big story to me is the absolute collapse of what was supposed to be historic cold coming in late week on almost all the modelling. From historic to just seasonably cold in 18 hours of runs. Will be interesting to see if it was just some strange hiccup or the threat really is gone. just an amazing season with the mos... Yeah I gave up--hence why I have been posting the fails in the disco thread instead. As cyclone77 said in the Jan disco thread--it will have to be in 84 hours the way things have been going lately. These last two I had much less confidence in though for various reasons--the first looked like a much better threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Yeah I gave up--hence why I have been posting the fails in the disco thread instead. As cyclone77 said in the Jan disco thread--it will have to be in 84 hours the way things have been going lately. These last two I had much less confidence in though for various reasons--the first looked like a much better threat. i feel for pro-mets out there making forecasts for the public. Talk was already circulating around here about the brutal cold coming for the end of week. Can't blame them for trying to give an early heads up. Severe cold has a greater chance of being a life threatening event vs. a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 i feel for pro-mets out there making forecasts for the public. Talk was already circulating around here about the brutal cold coming for the end of week. Can't blame them for trying to give an early heads up. Severe cold has a greater chance of being a life threatening event vs. a snowstorm. Yeah local news here has been doing the same. I was chuckling a bit because I know the exact feeling, but I think a few of the news stations may have been too transfixed with the operationals with this one since the ensembles were never too significant with the threat. As for feeling bad--I don't. I love weather for this very reason--it will always be better than me, numerical models, and any human being. It makes it fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwassmer Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 i feel for pro-mets out there making forecasts for the public. Talk was already circulating around here about the brutal cold coming for the end of week. Can't blame them for trying to give an early heads up. Severe cold has a greater chance of being a life threatening event vs. a snowstorm. Brutal arctic cold is a great way to freeze ponds, etc. but I don't associate it with big snows in the lower Ohio Valley. My recollection is that we get big snows (WHEN we get them) when it's seasonably cold, not arctic cold. The arctic cold creates a block that moisture won't overcome. The old adage, "It's too cold to snow" rings true in the lower Ohio Valley. Give me 30 degrees and an overrunning event any day over 15 degrees and sunny skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 And..... it's back!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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