buckeye Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Arctic outbreak fail... Speak for yourself. I had a low temperature of 2. It could get colder. sorry... pitfalls of having our region extend from w. PA to Los Angeles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Ha ha! 12z GFS has 49F here at 384... very mild after the "outbreak" occurs. Stills hows -25F at one point, but its in and out quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Ha ha! 12z GFS has 49F here at 384... very mild after the "outbreak" occurs. Stills hows -25F at one point, but its in and out quick. 15 days out!!!! Lots will change...guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Arctic outbreak fail... Speak for yourself. I had a low temperature of 2. It could get colder. 2 F? I go out in shorts and a T in that weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 2 F? I go out in shorts and a T in that weather Yeah, it's kind of funny that Grand Forks was below zero all day yesterday, and about -20F at night...but we're not even talking about that. GFK is just cold without even "trying"...the climate differences between the northern plains and midwest are amazing. If we had a day in Chicago of -2/-20, it would seem like the world is ending. But in GFK, it's just a run-of-the-mill cold airmass...no big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Day 10 Euro is brutal in western Canada! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 204 PM EST MON JAN 10 2011 VALID 12Z THU JAN 13 2011 - 12Z MON JAN 17 2011 ...12Z MODEL CYCLE UPDATE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MORNING PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE AT DAY 7 WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WAS IN RESPONSE TO THE TREND NOTED IN THE 12Z GEFS MEAN/CMC. IN ADDITION...FROM PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE...THE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR ALWAYS SEEMS TO BE UNDERESTIMATED BY MODEL GUIDANCE. SO ADJUSTING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ACCORDINGLY APPEARED THE WAY TO GO. WITH THE CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD A FLATTER SOLUTION ALOFT WHICH LEADS TO LESS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. HOWEVER...BEFORE THIS OCCURS...THE GFS DEPICTED A SFC LOW WHICH WAS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER WHILE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS IDEA WAS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z ECMWF. HOWEVER...NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRODUCTS WERE MADE GIVEN THE LARGE SCATTER IN THE INTENSITY FORECASTS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF DURING THEIR LAST SEVERAL RUNS. ONE OTHER NOTE TO MAKE IS THE FACT THE 12Z GEFS MEAN HAS PULLED EVEN FURTHER TO THE EAST AT DAY 7 WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS HAS THE EFFECT OF INCREASING THE SPREAD BETWEEN THAT AND THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. AT THIS TIME...THE ORIGINAL FORECAST BLEND WILL BE MAINTAINED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Day 10 Euro is brutal in western Canada! How brutal? -35C at h85? Interesting...but of course it may stay there and not move south at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah, it's kind of funny that Grand Forks was below zero all day yesterday, and about -20F at night...but we're not even talking about that. GFK is just cold without even "trying"...the climate differences between the northern plains and midwest are amazing. If we had a day in Chicago of -2/-20, it would seem like the world is ending. But in GFK, it's just a run-of-the-mill cold airmass...no big deal. ya you get used to it, i didn't even wear a jacket when i headed into my office today, just my hoodie and we might get up to a blistering 10 degrees today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Ouch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS cold again in the extended range... Got me... who knows. who cares... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The Ops have been lost. I suspect it's a bit too soon to discount an Arctic Intrusion into the Lower 48. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The Ops have been lost. I suspect it's a bit too soon to discount an Arctic Intrusion into the Lower 48. We shall see. As I hve been saying, the Pacific is becoming favorable for a cold pattern E of the Rockies...If you want cold to go far south, the 10 day Euro is a step in the right direction. Says "what +EPO" and break of the -NAO pattern? This time with <-35C temps in Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hmmm... If you can get a little stronger ridging in the W coast, meaning a more amplified trough, watch out for a miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If you can get a little stronger ridging in the W coast, meaning a more amplified trough, watch out for a miracle. Well it's a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 You beat me to it. Severe artic plunge delayed but not denied? 850mb -40C pop for the first time this season, and with the W coast ridge, it's gonna head south unadulterated this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 And my buddy 57 is calling for a warmup... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 You beat me to it. Severe artic plunge delayed but not denied? 850mb -40C pop for the first time this season, and with the W coast ridge, it's gonna head south unadulterated this run. Nice...the "vodka isotherm" makes an appearance. The 10-day Euro is definitely interesting...need to see if it can hold for a run or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 And my buddy 57 is calling for a warmup... Many bought the drastic EPO switch, but forgot to look at the tropics. Even though it goes against the current ENSO state, a coherent MJO wave in all models is forecasted to go trough phases 7 and 8. This helps Indonesia to dry out a bit, while switching the -OLR anomalies closer to the dateline. This is very nicely modeled in the GEFS, with the bulk of the tropical forcing around the dateline. This usually promotes an Aleutian low and ridging in the W Coast of North America. That, plus having a disturbed stratosphere argues against the AO going positive, so the EPO ridge doesn't fully migrate to Siberia, and that's how we still have cross polar flow and a supressed PV in Central Canada, plus all the cold air that is currently being transferred to Canuck land are a recipe for some strong cold. Not etched on stone, but this is, IMO, more reasonable than a huge warmup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Many bought the drastic EPO switch, but forgot to look at the tropics. Even though it goes against the current ENSO state, a coherent MJO wave in all models is forecasted to go trough phases 7 and 8. This helps Indonesia to dry out a bit, while switching the -OLR anomalies closer to the dateline. This is very nicely modeled in the GEFS, with the bulk of the tropical forcing around the dateline. This usually promotes an Aleutian low and ridging in the W Coast of North America. That, plus having a disturbed stratosphere argues against the AO going positive, so the EPO ridge doesn't fully migrate to Siberia, and that's how we still have cross polar flow and a supressed PV in Central Canada, plus all the cold air that is currently being transferred to Canuck land are a recipe for some strong cold. Not etched on stone, but this is, IMO, more reasonable than a huge warmup. We've seen many a bust with the pattern and the 'mechanics' at work on a global scale are very interesting to watch unfold. Now let's see if the goods can get delivered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GB AFD: IT/S DEFINITELY BEEN A STRUGGLE GETTING A HANDLE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR BITTERLY COLD TEMPS. AT SEVERAL POINTS DURING THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS...MODELS HAVE INDICATED A MAJOR ARCTIC INTRUSION JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD. BUT THUS FAR...ALL WE/VE ENDED UP DOING IS PUTTING THE COLD AIR OFF FARTHER INTO THE FUTURE. MODELS HINTING AT THE SAME THING AGAIN TDA...AND STARTING TO WONDER IF WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER TEASE. PART OF THE PROBLEM MAY BE RELATED TO THE DOMINANT PATTERN WE WERE IN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ALTHOUGH THE STG RIDGING OVER AK WOULD NORMALLY RESULT IN VERY COLD AIR SPILLING INTO THE NRN CONUS...WE DIDN/T START WITH VERY COLD AIR ACRS MUCH OF CANADA. IN FACT...THE STG/PERSISTENT BLOCKING OVER ERN CANADA AND THE N ATL ACTUALLY BROUGHT AIR FM THE ATLANTIC ACRS MUCH OF ERN AND EVEN INTO CENTRAL CANADA...AND THAT AIR MASS WAS ACTUALLY MILD /RELATIVELY SPEAKING/ FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NOW THAT AK RIDGE HAS BEEN IN PLACE OF A WHILE...COLD AIR RESERVES ARE RAPIDLY INCRG OVER NWRN CANADA...THOUGH INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR GETS SHOVED BACK WWD INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT ANIMATIONS OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC FLOW OFF THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF...GFS...AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL SHOWED A CHUNK OF VERY COLD AIR FM NERN SIBERIA BREAKING OFF AND HEADING SWD THROUGH CANADA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WK...LEAVING IT POISED OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES BY LATE NEXT WK. WITH DEEP VORTEX PROGGED TO BE IN HUDSON BAY AREA AT THAT TIME...PERHAPS THE COLD SNAP THAT ALWAYS SEEMS TO BE JUST BEYOND THE HORIZON WL FINALLY MATERIALIZE. WE/LL SEE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 18z GFS says.. "sell the house and move to Florida"... omg ... -35F?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 0z GFS at hr 216 is REALLY cold for parts of WI/MN/MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 06Z GFS is even colder for the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 06Z GFS is even colder for the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... The lakes are going to take some beating with that type of cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 6z is just ugly. Just a horrible period of subzero weather. Still a ways out there, so time for change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.