sojitodd Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 January '94 was the grand daddy of arctic outbreaks here in central ohio. Amazing numbers...many burbs around columbus nearing -30 and southeastern foothills with unofficial numbers approaching -40. I can't imagine getting even close to that with this. This is dropping into the conus too far west for us to feel the brunt. Ideally we would want cross polar flow right down through the upper midwest and western lakes. I'm also skeptical because of the way the models are flopping around with this in terms of whether it comes south or heads more east. Thanks for the response. Yes I remember that 94 cold all too well. I lived only 4 miles from downtown Cbus and had a -24 reading. I know it was around -30 in Dublin, London, etc. I remember that summer driving out here and there were so many dead trees and shrubs from the cold-it gave some areas a kind of 'skeletonized' look to the landscape in mid summer. It was down to around -18 here in Madison county in early 2009 and my container plants came through fine-as long as it is not below that I am ok with it. The ony good thing about such cold is that it really keeps even a mininal snowpack around-and I like the snow-if it is going to be cold, I want snow on the ground at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yeah. All snow. Ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yeah. All snow. Ridiculous. Probably should start a thread Mallow. I will at least try to contribute even with my lack of knowledge regarding the insane weather in the Pacific NW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yeah. All snow. Ridiculous. Man Mallow if that is all snow good luck, I hope you have a good snow blower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 12z GFS shows largely zonal flow throughout the extended with the real cold air only skimming the north. It would be something if we manage to get through January without even hitting -10F. Maybe the forecast will change once the early week system lays down an extensive snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 12z GFS shows largely zonal flow throughout the extended with the real cold air only skimming the north. It would be something if we manage to get through January without even hitting -10F. Maybe the forecast will change once the early week system lays down an extensive snow cover. Yeah, unfortunately it looks like "arctic outbreak cancel" for much of the Midwest. Still a bit of time for things to change...but the trends aren't looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 18z shows 2 shots of cold air here. First one shows us dropping to -24F and the second shot a few days later to -17F... This makes sense from a "normal" stand point. -24F is a pretty common low min temp for the year here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm hoping for at least a couple of 0F days here in Ottawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 gfs still has it... nasty stuff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH! 12z LSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Good stuff daddy...yeah, it could still be brutal in the upper midwest. Models (GFS, in particular) are tantalizing with the arctic air...a large thickness gradient. Could be extremely cold where you are, with just a glancing blow imby in the western suburbs of Chicago. Either way, it should make for an active storm track...it'll be fun to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 12z Euro barely even brings the arctic air across the Canadian border for much of the extended. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 i don't know, I see maps like this and I'm wondering if this cold is ever really coming down. Weren't we supposed to be in the 'thick of it' by end of next week? Not seeing the amplification or storm development to usher that in.....and it's always seemingly 10+ days away. Big red flag when models are trying to advertise an extreme event is the continual delay. now let's look at today's 12z 240 I call this the 'mirage effect'. When an extreme event is advertised on the longrange models but everyday closer you get, the model moves it back a day. Usually spells doom for verification of the event, in this case a southeastward plunge of brutal arctic air deep into the conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I wonder if the exact opposite is going to happen, and we wind up being above normal for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 What the models missed with this was the undercutting of the AK ridge sending systems into Canada/PAC NW. Need that AK ridge to extend all the way south along the westcoast/just off the cost so NOTHING can crash in from the Pacific into the PAC NW/Canada. Yeah the AK ridge helped to send the Brutal stuff from the other side of the globe to Canada but it gets stopped short of the lower 48 except the Upper MW/N.Plains because of the under cutting and or faster flow across the country. Could come back but till i see a massive ridge in the Pacific build up into AK with NO undercutting i would not count on it. That's me though. Doesn't mean it cant or wont be cold either as there is always other ways of getting cold down here in the lower 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 What the models missed with this was the undercutting of the AK ridge sending systems into Canada/PAC NW. Need that AK ridge to extend all the way south along the westcoast/just off the cost so NOTHING can crash in from the Pacific into the PAC NW/Canada. Yeah the AK ridge helped to send the Brutal stuff from the other side of the globe to Canada but it gets stopped short of the lower 48 except the Upper MW/N.Plains because of the under cutting and or faster flow across the country. Could come back but till i see a massive ridge in the Pacific build up into AK with NO undercutting i would not count on it. That's me though. Doesn't mean it cant or wont be cold either as there is always other ways of getting cold down here in the lower 48. 18z GFS stll seems to be binging the arctic cold into my region around the 16th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 18z not as brutal here.... Still shows a shot or two of -20F .... nothing out of the norm for here, but still cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 00z brings the cold, but still not nearly as bad as the 12z... Looks like it warms right back up after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 euro continues to say....'what arctic outbreak'. Keeps it well bottled into Canada and sends it further north thru 240. I suspect this thread will lose pinnage honors very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah un-pin this, this isn't happening. Fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 fail... looks warm now in xtended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 fail... looks warm now in xtended. yep, i wasn't quite sure where the gfs was heading in the long term. At one point it looked like it was going to take that storm early next week in the east and make it the conduit to bring down the motherlode. That didn't happen, and it looks like all the cold stays up in canada and rots away. By end of gfs run looks like 50's make a return here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm afraid it might be time to: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 yep, i wasn't quite sure where the gfs was heading in the long term. At one point it looked like it was going to take that storm early next week in the east and make it the conduit to bring down the motherlode. That didn't happen, and it looks like all the cold stays up in canada and rots away. By end of gfs run looks like 50's make a return here. You're usually good for an early "winter cancel" call. 12z GFS giving you good vibes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Any good meteorological explanations for the huge shift in the upcoming pattern? It's rather remarkable to go from a potentially historic arctic outbreak to really warm. I'm honestly not bringing this up to complain or vent...but it's odd how things could change so quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Any good meteorological explanations for the huge shift in the upcoming pattern? It's rather remarkable to go from a potentially historic arctic outbreak to really warm. I'm honestly not bringing this up to complain or vent...but it's odd how things could change so quickly. Seems to me that the energy that keeps slamming the Pac NW is undercutting the western ridge, which in tune, keeps the cold stuff bottled up in Canada/exterme northern tier of the Upper Plains. In other words the ridge can't amplify north and send the "real" cold south, deep into the U.S. Of course take that FWIW, just a layman's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 You're usually good for an early "winter cancel" call. 12z GFS giving you good vibes? gfs looks awesome for the next 8-10 days here....after that it's light the torches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 great news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Warm in the extended..... Somehow, I knew that was going to happen.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Arctic outbreak fail... Speak for yourself. I had a low temperature of 2. It could get colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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