Mallow Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I think the boundary layer is too warm when some of the heaviest precipitation falls... more like 1.5'-2'...still a damn good dump...the thing is that the second storm is too warm, and would probably clean the ground..that's of course verbatim I'd say 1 to 3 feet. With Portland you have to be especially careful, because with cold air east of the Cascades, it's very easy for us to get easterly winds through the Gorge. If there is ANY easterly gradient at all as the low approaches, Portland will be snow until some layer above the surface warms enough, then freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'd say 1 to 3 feet. With Portland you have to be especially careful, because with cold air east of the Cascades, it's very easy for us to get easterly winds through the Gorge. If there is ANY easterly gradient at all as the low approaches, Portland will be snow until some layer above the surface warms enough, then freezing rain. I have heard of that exact scenario panning out. Is that not the exact cause of the massive bust last year where thousands of motorists had to abandon their cars? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Interesting new winter warning product will begin usage in a few days at NWS BISMARK regarding cold weather. http://www.crh.noaa....62214&source=0. This is interesting, thanks for posting. I like the extreme cold warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I have heard of that exact scenario panning out. Is that not the exact cause of the massive bust last year where thousands of motorists had to abandon their cars? I think so. It's not that uncommon, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 They abandon their cars? did they ever go back for them? 18z still shows -30F for here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 They abandon their cars? did they ever go back for them? 18z still shows -30F for here... I always wondered about that especially those who do it on major interstates? Maybe it is me but i cannot see myself leaving my car on a interstate etc. Ofcourse i tend to avoid roads if it is gonna be that bad as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 They abandon their cars? did they ever go back for them? 18z still shows -30F for here... I always wondered about that especially those who do it on major interstates? Maybe it is me but i cannot see myself leaving my car on a interstate etc. Ofcourse i tend to avoid roads if it is gonna be that bad as well. This may have been the event where the mass abandonment of cars happened due to the "surprise" snow event. I don't know the gorge flows/patterns in Oregon, but such canyon flows are common in many other mountain states. http://www.kgw.com/news/local/Snow-falling-in-Salem-heading-north-80273412.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 They abandon their cars? did they ever go back for them? 18z still shows -30F for here... I am excited about a nice change in weather and the first true arctic front of the winter. Still a chance we have to start another thread for a potential storm. Models are flopping around of course, but some suggest a decent baroclinic wave ejecting into the plains and tracking east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I always wondered about that especially those who do it on major interstates? Maybe it is me but i cannot see myself leaving my car on a interstate etc. Ofcourse i tend to avoid roads if it is gonna be that bad as well. Yeah if I owned a rear wheel drive vehicle I would not even go out, I'd borrow another vehicle, because all you are looking at is getting stuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Congrats Mallow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 It is still a long ways out to get into details, but that is cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It is still a long ways out to get into details, but that is cold. Too bad Lake Michigan is not another 100-200 miles wider from west to east. Anyways.. That is just brutal.. brrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Too bad Lake Michigan is not another 100-200 miles wider from west to east. Anyways.. That is just brutal.. brrr The DGZ is probably at ground level if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Too bad Lake Michigan is not another 100-200 miles wider from west to east. Anyways.. That is just brutal.. brrr Yeah interesting to see how this pans out and what direction it comes from. Looks like you guys downstream of the lakes will be spared at least a little. Still cold though. Don Sutherland believes this will be a biggie event for the folks in TX/southern states. GFS has deep penetration of the front well through the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 cant ever recall seeing -30 850s over central OH on a forecast map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 i don't know, I see maps like this and I'm wondering if this cold is ever really coming down. Weren't we supposed to be in the 'thick of it' by end of next week? Not seeing the amplification or storm development to usher that in.....and it's always seemingly 10+ days away. Big red flag when models are trying to advertise an extreme event is the continual delay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 i don't know, I see maps like this and I'm wondering if this cold is ever really coming down. Weren't we supposed to be in the 'thick of it' by end of next week? Not seeing the amplification or storm development to usher that in.....and it's always seemingly 10+ days away. Big red flag when models are trying to advertise an extreme event is the continual delay. The 16-20th is generally what the long-range ensemble GFS was hitting on. Tough call really--ECM has shown the first shot consistently trying to skirt the CA border with perhaps a second later. GFS has flip-flopped between one and two shots of cold. The next 1-2 days will be pretty insightful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looking at the 216 hour GFS (valid on January 16) : I can't recall seeing -30C 850mb temperatures in over such a large section of western Canada, and I have been looking at these charts for years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looking at the 216 hour GFS (valid on January 16) : I can't recall seeing -30C 850mb temperatures in over such a large section of western Canada, and I have been looking at these charts for years. Agreed. The question is how far south they penetrate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looking at the 216 hour GFS (valid on January 16) : I can't recall seeing -30C 850mb temperatures in over such a large section of western Canada, and I have been looking at these charts for years. Agree. The theme of this much-discussed arctic outbreak is that there is a ton of "potential energy" just waiting to be unleashed. We just need a strong storm and/or teleconnection to really unleash it. Recently, the model trends seem to be for the motherload of cold to remain in Canada, or maybe the far nothern U.S. We'll see what happens. A nice storm along the arctic front would be wonderful...some beautiful powder 20:1 ratio snow with falling temps thereafter as the arctic air is dragged down behind it. Plus, the resulting snowcover would result in less modification of the arctic air as it heads south. There are a lot of potential positive feedback mechanisms to really amplify the cold, and it's also the coldest time of the year climatologically. We just need that first domino to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looks to be truly historical if it verifies. I was looking at the GFS, it is showing highs barely reaching -5 on a couple of days around here.... It's gonna be brutal for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This is what I was talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 cant ever recall seeing -30 850s over central OH on a forecast map Given that you mentioned Central OH, how cold do you really think it will get here with this outbreak? I am not very good at reading these models and do not have the training and all. Do you this is something to actually rival the January 1994 cold? Do you think it will get that bad this far down? I have a heck of alot of large (cold hardy) container plants outside that will make it through a normal winter fine, but if we are talking 20 below(or more) in outlying areas where I live (near West Jeff) then I am going to have a living room filled with large container plants. Damn I love the big snows(and even the little ones) but just plain brutal cold alone completely sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Is that a -59F up in Canada? I want that over me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Given that you mentioned Central OH, how cold do you really think it will get here with this outbreak? I am not very good at reading these models and do not have the training and all. Do you this is something to actually rival the January 1994 cold? Do you think it will get that bad this far down? I have a heck of alot of large (cold hardy) container plants outside that will make it through a normal winter fine, but if we are talking 20 below(or more) in outlying areas where I live (near West Jeff) then I am going to have a living room filled with large container plants. Damn I love the big snows(and even the little ones) but just plain brutal cold alone completely sucks. January '94 was the grand daddy of arctic outbreaks here in central ohio. Amazing numbers...many burbs around columbus nearing -30 and southeastern foothills with unofficial numbers approaching -40. I can't imagine getting even close to that with this. This is dropping into the conus too far west for us to feel the brunt. Ideally we would want cross polar flow right down through the upper midwest and western lakes. I'm also skeptical because of the way the models are flopping around with this in terms of whether it comes south or heads more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Baroclinic instability, your namesake dumps feet of snow on Portland in the 12z GFS and 12z Euro from day 5 through day 10 or so. EDIT: By the way, after the 12z operational runs, I am totally freaking out right now. I was just gonna say, this pattern has a lot of potential for the PAC NW. Good lucky guys, hope you get dumped on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I'd probably die of excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 0z euro 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 sorry for my ignorance but when is the general arrival time for this histortic cold air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Is that a -59F up in Canada? I want that over me. You're nuts......that when things not quite up to par just break. When I say things, I mean machines, pipes, 'tires' ect.... Been there, done that. Although...it's is in my moniker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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