baroclinic_instability Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Might as well start it. We have all been tracking this potential outbreak for a while now with the massive -EPO developing and the breakdown of the high latitude blocking. Too early to really accurately determine exactly how this outbreak will pan out as the ECMWF ensembles suggest the first round of cold air stays along the US/CA border through day 10 (extrapolating the 500 hpa height field in time) while the GFS ensembles have a deep progression of the cold front into the CONUS--some suggest the gravity driven front develops into the GOM. Some ensemble members (and the current 06Z GFS) suggest two rounds of arctic air through the extended. Some members push the -36C 850s south of the CA border with below zero temps dropping into Texas and highs well below zero into the OV. Impressive. Current ECM 10 day ensemble 500 hpa heights: 0Z GEFS at 276 has a deep outbreak through much of the CONUS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 more suckage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BikiniBottom Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Below zero temps into Texas would be very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Might as well start it. We have all been tracking this potential outbreak for a while now with the massive -EPO developing and the breakdown of the high latitude blocking. Too early to really accurately determine exactly how this outbreak will pan out as the ECMWF ensembles suggest the first round of cold air stays along the US/CA border through day 10 (extrapolating the 500 hpa height field in time) while the GFS ensembles have a deep progression of the cold front into the CONUS--some suggest the gravity driven front develops into the GOM. Some ensemble members (and the current 06Z GFS) suggest two rounds of arctic air through the extended. Some members push the -36C 850s south of the CA border with below zero temps dropping into Texas and highs well below zero into the OV. Impressive. Current ECM 10 day ensemble 500 hpa heights: 0Z GEFS at 276 has a deep outbreak through much of the CONUS: Brutal.. Hopefully that is on a west/nw wind so the lake can take a little bite out of those temps here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I was just logging on to comment on this CRAP.... This would be the coldest in many years around here. Oh God... Lets get it in here and get this over with: Anything below -30F and I may have some fruit buds killed on my trees... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This thread should be pinned, IMO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 unless we get some white on the ground i would not think it would be anything mind numbing around these parts. i will enjoy my snowshower and a flurry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 A cross polar flow can make for some brutal conditions. I don't know what's worse, a snow-pack that exacerbates the cold, or a frozen, barren ground (reminds me too much of "The frozen tundra of Lambeau Field"). As of right now, it doesn't look very transitionary in nature. It will be interesting to see how long it sticks around. Note to self: Quit making references to stuff that younger people won't remember. EDIT: I was doing the same thing Daddy, I was actually going to start a thread. I'm glad baroclinic started it. I'd rather have a met start it, someone who knows what they're talking about . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 It will be interesting to see how this event pans out. Personally, I have no idea exactly. Nobody does. Ensemble guidance is slightly different, and I am not all that good at applying potential analogs. If anyone does have an analog to this event, feel free to discuss. Even taking the extremes out, it will get cold. For me and a lot of other Great Lakes/Northern Plains folk, it will be nothing else but a huge nuisance (although personally I enjoy the pain). For others down south, the effects may be significant. Taking extremes into consideration, we could be looking at a "one" shot brief outbreak relegated to the NP/GL region while the other extreme could be record breaking cold deep into the southern states. It will be interesting tracking this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Feb of 1996 we hit -35F here in La Crosse... I remember that. I had to keep waking up and starting my truck up to make sure it wouldn't freeze solid! Its been that long since we've hit -30F or colder here in LSE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The last time it was way below zero here was back in 1994. That was when the high temperatures struggled to make it to -10°F, with lows around -20°F at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 unless we get some white on the ground i would not think it would be anything mind numbing around these parts. i will enjoy my snowshower and a flurry... A big arctic outbreak with little to no snowcover is bad news for pipes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Feb of 1996 we hit -35F here in La Crosse... I remember that. I had to keep waking up and starting my truck up to make sure it wouldn't freeze solid! Its been that long since we've hit -30F or colder here in LSE... You posted it already, In late Jan 1995/Early Feb 1996 the center of the country had the trifecta of a Cold Air outbreak. Not only do we have the (1)-EPO dump, but there is also a (2)Greenland block with (3)snowcover. Essentially a piece of the Polar Vortex drops into south central Canada maybe even the upper plains/Upper Midwest. Snow was fairly extensive in the upper Midwest after a decent Mid/Late January 1995 Snowstorm in the Midwest. I'm sure you recall that one Longlegs. I was in Reedsburg where I received 21.6 inches of snow in a 3 day period. Question is will there be a large area snow event in the Midwest/OV before the Cold Outbreak Comes, if so the temps are gonna be even colder then the models prog. You could kinda sniff this pattern out because this December 2010 pattern has been similar to December 1995 with the La Nina/Extreme - NAO. I realize this 2010-11 La Nina is a stronger then the weak one in 95-96, but it's not acting like a borderline Moderate/Strong La Nina, possibly because of the recent low sun spot activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I was just logging on to comment on this CRAP.... This would be the coldest in many years around here. Oh God... Lets get it in here and get this over with: Anything below -30F and I may have some fruit buds killed on my trees... I am glad to live near Lake Superior. As long as it is ice free it keeps us warmer and also gives us snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I am glad to live near Lake Superior. As long as it is ice free it keeps us warmer and also gives us snow. That's what's great about anywhere in Michigan. The lakes modify the air a lot. I remember in early 2003 when the lakes froze over. It got very cold for our standards, especially in early March. I think there were even some -40 degree lows in the UP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 That's what's great about anywhere in Michigan. The lakes modify the air a lot. I remember in early 2003 when the lakes froze over. It got very cold for our standards, especially in early March. I think there were even some -40 degree lows in the UP. I remember that. We had a few house fires around here. All winter people burn the wood slowly getting creosote buildup in their chimney and when it got extremely cold they cranked them up causing chimney fires. One house was a big mansion that caught fire. It had a wood furnace in the basement and the chimney was full of creosote that caught fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Lake Erie is going to freeze if this verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Baroclinic instability, your namesake dumps feet of snow on Portland in the 12z GFS and 12z Euro from day 5 through day 10 or so. EDIT: By the way, after the 12z operational runs, I am totally freaking out right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 That's what's great about anywhere in Michigan. The lakes modify the air a lot. I remember in early 2003 when the lakes froze over. It got very cold for our standards, especially in early March. I think there were even some -40 degree lows in the UP. in the winter I would agree that's great. In the spring when you're ready for those short-sleeved warm days to kick in, it would kinda suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Baroclinic instability, your namesake dumps feet of snow on Portland in the 12z GFS and 12z Euro from day 5 through day 10 or so. EDIT: By the way, after the 12z operational runs, I am totally freaking out right now. Good luck...there's definitely potential in this pattern. Seems like the GFS is flip-flopping a bit with the details...but the general trend seems to be that the "motherload" of the arctic outbreak is being delayed by a few days...from Jan. 15 a few days ago to about Jan. 17-19 now. Either way, it looks good for winter wx enthusiasts...either suppressed storms and bone-chilling cold (hopefully with at least a modest snowcover), or a snowy pattern on the edge of the arctic air. Hopefully the models will clear it up in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Interesting new winter warning product will begin usage in a few days at NWS BISMARK regarding cold weather. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=bis&storyid=62214&source=0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Baroclinic instability, your namesake dumps feet of snow on Portland in the 12z GFS and 12z Euro from day 5 through day 10 or so. EDIT: By the way, after the 12z operational runs, I am totally freaking out right now. Oh well that can't be correct, just need to throw out that run.. Foot of snow in Portland, bah where were those days when I was in school.. Actually wouldn't mind it, so that I can give my BIL a ton of crap about getting snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 in the winter I would agree that's great. In the spring when you're ready for those short-sleeved warm days to kick in, it would kinda suck. That is the bad thing, but it is nice having those sudden lake breezes after getting hot and humid all day. Where I live they come from the west or east. Just open the windows up on the side of the house where the breeze is coming from and let it cool down the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Oh well that can't be correct, just need to throw out that run.. Foot of snow in Portland, bah where were those days when I was in school.. Actually wouldn't mind it, so that I can give my BIL a ton of crap about getting snow.. Portland saw over a foot of snow in one storm just two years ago. EDIT: Which is nothing compared to what the 18z GFS shows....4-6' of snow for Portland/Seattle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm gonna soak up the rays here in FL while I have the chance, it would appear this outbreak is going to hit after I'm back Regarding snow cover, if this were to happen it would likely be preceded by a snowstorm in the upper MW, at least enough to cover the ground for when the coldest temps hit I'd think. 18z just came out and it has the exact same event still, snowstorm and then -24 °F at MSN. The record for MSN is -37 °F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Portland saw over a foot of snow in one storm just two years ago. EDIT: Which is nothing compared to what the 18z GFS shows....4-6' of snow for Portland/Seattle! I'd probably die of excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Portland saw over a foot of snow in one storm just two years ago. EDIT: Which is nothing compared to what the 18z GFS shows....4-6' of snow for Portland/Seattle! I think the boundary layer is too warm when some of the heaviest precipitation falls... more like 1.5'-2'...still a damn good dump...the thing is that the second storm is too warm, and would probably clean the ground..that's of course verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I think the boundary layer is too warm when some of the heaviest precipitation falls... more like 1.5'-2'...still a damn good dump...the thing is that the second storm is too warm, and would probably clean the ground..that's of course verbatim There are actually three huge snowstorms for Portland/Seattle on the 18z GFS...the first one would be very close to rain at times for Portland, but all snow Seattle, second one would be all snow both places, and third would start as heavy snow and then turn to freezing rain/rain both places. Again, this is all verbatim and just for fun...but that's what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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