weatherwiz Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Certainly bustin in SW CT...that 3-6'' contour was meant to go all the way down to Fairfield county but going to bust badly here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yeah I was going to create a thread in the main with how impressed I was with DT's first guess. I guess I am a DT now. I went for 4", wanted to up to 6 but I played it safe and busted bad....10" and counting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 My map/discussion for tonight Technical discussion: If it seems like we just finished with a snowfall event, well we just did. The first in the series of two Norlun trough setups is just about in it's final stages as most of the action is now out towards SE MA. Part one turned out to be rather impressive across parts of western CT and up through the Berkshires in western MA. Many locations across this area received well over 8-15'' of snowfall, with much of it occurring during a 3-4 HR span as some VERY impressive snowfall rates occurred as some of the snow bands actually became convective in nature, even acquiring some mid-level rotation! Now that this event is just adding it's final touches we quickly turn our eyes towards part two, which is set to occur late Saturday into Sunday. As an upper level low continues to pivot through the area numerous pieces of s/w energy will continue to traverse the area. As we saw yesterday there is a good deal of upper-level divergence in place with surface convergence, this will help make way for the development of a surface low, or weak waves of surface lows. Off to our east exists a coastal storm which will be intensifying. Due to the upper-level divergence and surface convergence spawning the development of weak lows along with the stronger system out to sea. This ocean storm will begin to get "robbed", looking at a 1000-500mb thickness map if you look at the isobars "pressure contours" around the ocean storm you'll notice they sort of get tugged back towards the west, this is what is referred to as an inverted trough. This will help to draw in a great deal of moisture, both from the ocean storm, and from the ocean itself. With the upper level low nearby throwing tons of s/w energy overhead, this will provide a focal point for a great deal of lift, plus you have the development of weak sfc lows which will further act to enhance lift. While we are mainly looking at a similar setup to which produced snowfall Friday and Friday night, the locations that are most affected from part one will spare the brunt of part two. Part two is looking to affect more of RI/SE MA than it is back in CT. Forecast: Looking over latest data I believe the highest snowfall amounts will occur from places east of Worcester, MA. This includes all of eastern MA and RI. Something to watch closely as well, mainly for the Cape area is the potential for mixed precip or perhaps even rain, this could have a significant impact on snowfall totals for this area. For the above mentioned locations forecast models show a great deal of lift to go along with a very moist atmospheric profile and a continuous supply of moisture as surface winds and low-level winds will be off the ocean. In these locations I believe as much as 4-8'' of snowfall will occur with the potential for amounts to reach a foot in some locations. This will be determined on where the heaviest echoes will setup. Further west across western/central MA and all of CT I think snowfall totals will be significantly less as the best forcing/lift is more over southern CT extending into MA/RI. Forecast models also tend to show winds in a more northerly component which may bring down some drier air from up north into the region which could limit snowfall growth and precip expansion, especially considering this area is not in the area of greatest lift. I think snowfall amounts will be on the light side, likely a trace to 2'' but certainly could see some spotty 3-4'' amounts, especially out towards eastern CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I went for no snow west of Middlesex county in CT on FB today. Basucally a 0 on the western edge of CT to 4" on the very Eastern edge. Don't know if it will verify except there is no snow IMBY and radar seems against it but being in western NE I am already looking to next week...... Good luck to Eastern NE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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