CT Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 These bowling ball 500mb you want the 500mb low JUST south of you (by 50 miles or so). Anymore than that and you can start getting screwed because the thing is stacked (normally lows tilt NW or poleward with height) but here everything is pretty much stacked vertically. Important to watch that low track. The 18z NAM seems sort of weird and is doing some funny things with the vorticity...almost shearing it out for a time and redeveloping a 500mb low center SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Famous last words before my inverted dusting. My gut is most people wont have much to complain about...just as long as expectation are kept in check. I'd start with a solid warning criteria and work our way up from there if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 18z GFS out to 6h...hoping it comes in more like the ensemble mean. Everybody would be thrilled with a track like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 My gut is most people wont have much to complain about...just as long as expectation are kept in check. I'd start with a solid warning criteria and work our way up from the if need be. I agree....I was just kidding.....this is a far different animal from that inverted disaster. I'd still stick with a general 8-16". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Surprised people aren't more excited that the GFS/Euro ens are pretty much the exact same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 These bowling ball 500mb you want the 500mb low JUST south of you (by 50 miles or so). Anymore than that and you can start getting screwed because the thing is stacked (normally lows tilt NW or poleward with height) but here everything is pretty much stacked vertically. Important to watch that low track. The 18z NAM seems sort of weird and is doing some funny things with the vorticity...almost shearing it out for a time and redeveloping a 500mb low center SE. I think all the convection and dynamics going on in the southern US with this storm is a sign we could see some pretty insane stuff for someone down the line. Remember prior to 12/9/05 there was thunder and lightning SW of here from central PA back into the OH Valley? Those are always good signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Surprised people aren't more excited that the GFS/Euro ens are pretty much the exact same thing. I am, But i am icing my nuts after the 18z nam.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 We have March 1960 and December 2005's love child....I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think all the convection and dynamics going on in the southern US with this storm is a sign we could see some pretty insane stuff for someone down the line. Remember prior to 12/9/05 there was thunder and lightning SW of here from central PA back into the OH Valley? Those are always good signs. I don't know how much what is going on down south is going to matter a whole lot by Tuesday. The s/w responsible pretty much falls apart... we're just left with a lot of that tapped moisture getting drawn into the storm. The dynamics of the southern stream feature pretty much going to crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 GFS more amped through 18, not sure what that will translate to down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The only thing that scares me is that it's January...only one really memorable January event for me....it's kind of a HECS hole within climo..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Surprised people aren't more excited that the GFS/Euro ens are pretty much the exact same thing. I'm still reeling from NAM. lol Edit ... just saw dryslot's response. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrokenASOS Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Surprised people aren't more excited that the GFS/Euro ens are pretty much the exact same thing. Definitely a beautiful run. Looks like the low center passes right over the BM 12Z Wednesday. GEM unfortunately looks like it's continuing the southeastward trend outside the Benchmark though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I don't know how much what is going on down south is going to matter a whole lot by Tuesday. The s/w responsible pretty much falls apart... we're just left with a lot of that tapped moisture getting drawn into the storm. The dynamics of the southern stream feature pretty much going to crap. Agreed. Also I agree with the statements on the vorticity at the base. Also seems to be a huge model sticking point, not sure why. Everyone can agree to disagree, this system I have the same concerns for as last nights but with far more positives to start. In a nutshell it's exactly what you mentioned in the earlier post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The only thing that scares me is that it's January...only one really memorable January event for me....it's kind of a HECS hole within climo..... Just don't expect a HECS...this is too quick moving for a HECS anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Just don't expect a HECS...this is too quick moving for a HECS anyway. Even anything 12"+ has been pretty uncommon here in Jan. I can see someone getting 18" in 12 hrs from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think the GFS run is going to be a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think the GFS run is going to be a bit better. I don't but I could be wrong. Smidge weaker with the ML low and more vorticity in the base. I guess it could go either way. EDIT I'm at 42 hours. lower heights in the east and a further SE displacement to the vorticity. It's stronger though too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Even anything 12"+ has been pretty uncommon here in Jan. I can see someone getting 18" in 12 hrs from this. 12-18 is possible in this...but I would stay rather conservative for now. It has to work out just right (which it might) to get big 12-18 amounts. I'd be starting with a solid 6-12 expectation and nothing more until there is better consensus inside of 48 hours...we are still like 60-72h out, Lots of things can go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 im hoping for 4-8 down here seems to be the magic range at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 12-18 is possible in this...but I would stay rather conservative for now. It has to work out just right (which it might) to get big 12-18 amounts. I'd be starting with a solid 6-12 expectation and nothing more until there is better consensus inside of 48 hours...we are still like 60-72h out, Lots of things can go wrong. Well, I started with 8-16" and I think that is reasonable.....I understand why you want to stay as conservative as you can for as long as possible in an attempt to avoid ever having to cut back.....that is understandable when you are doing this professionally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I don't but I could be wrong. Smidge weaker with the ML low and more vorticity in the base. I guess it could go either way. EDIT I'm at 42 hours. lower heights in the east and a further SE displacement to the vorticity. It's stronger though too. Yeah, I'm not sure if the low placement will be much different, but it does look juicier to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 i've been busting high on all storms this winter, personally i'm sticking with 5-10 potential regionwide (generally) ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah, I'm not sure if the low placement will be much different, but it does look juicier to me. Placement by 48 is similar to the 12z NAM at 500. Height structure to the NE is a little different though. EDIT: Heights look less impressive in advance but there's a timing shift which may be accounting for a lot of it, tough to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 :lmao: What the hell is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 :lmao: Flat out hilarious. What is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 :lmao: total snow at your location on the 18z nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 What the hell is that? lol...thats the 18z clown nam run for hya with 13:1 ratio setting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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