weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 fwiw...bombs away at 72 hours with a nice CCB over most of MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The ec ensembles have a day or so of warmth as well...Maybe 2 days, but then perhaps an overrunning pattern. Damn..how warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks like the NAM wraps things up just a hair too late for NW areas but in time to clobber PVD/BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yuck ... fringed again. NNE guys not gonna like this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm getting yelled at to go downstairs (family party)....someone post 72! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Close; my driveway. ~16.5" in about 8 hrs; one of the most phenomenal spectacles of my life. ~7.5" in the final 1.5 hrs of the event....then the sun came out; all in the span of about half a day. Guess again, Berkshires. See the 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 That elongated H5 closed low just under SNE running from NJ out to along or just under S Coast is pretty nice. OT but out in the woods earlier and thinking it actually snowed more than I thought. Sure enough, BOS checks in with 1.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm getting yelled at to go downstairs (family party)....someone post 72! :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 fwiw...bombs away at 72 hours with a nice CCB over most of MA. I don't believe this run is correct - At 66 hours it has it's sfc low at a lower latitude than the right entrance region of the jet max and that doesn't make a lot of sense. I could happen if the llv gradient is displaced S of the mid level mechanics, but how could that be the case when just 6 hours ago it different. more of the same, next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm getting yelled at to go downstairs (family party)....someone post 72! Heavy snow for most of us in eastern MA vebatim. Go party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It's actually quite a bit different. Take a look at the animation I posted. It just did the same thing this run. Instead of wrapping the vorticity up around the approaching 500mb low, it gets out east. It happened 3 times in the last 3 days. There's less downstream ridging and I agree there's some differences from 12z, but my point is I don't think it was drastic enough for such a strong shift SE of the sfc placement. It's a lot slower in deepening the mid-level lows, but once it gets going it really cranks over E MA with the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Note just south of us near NJ...scary how "similar" this is to the other days...luckily this is all starting further north. The nose of the feature coming around the m/l low is flatter and more energy is escaping out. There's less N and more easterly movement. Not saying it's right, just saying we just went through this 2-3 different times in a few days with the NAM/RGEM. The first panel is the old forecast, second the new forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 the lead wave along the gulf coast today is screwing it all up for those further up the coast. when we were getting some decent runs up the coast into maine, that wave was dampening out and heights were able to rise quicker up the coast out ahead of the upper low....now with WSW flying all over the south, the opposite has happened.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 That elongated H5 closed low just under SNE running from NJ out to along or just under S Coast is pretty nice. OT but out in the woods earlier and thinking it actually snowed more than I thought. Sure enough, BOS checks in with 1.6 News stations this am reported Logan checked in with 3.5"...i was surprised, but 1.6 seems more reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 NAM is 6-12 hours slower than the rest of the guidance from 12Z. Tough to buy. Has it snowing hard all daylight hours Wed into Wed night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 NAM is 6-12 hours slower than the rest of the guidance from 12Z. Tough to buy. Has it snowing hard all daylight hours Wed into Wed night. Yeah and the problem with the NAM (it could be correct) is that it waits to close a 700mb low until basically south of BID. That's pretty late... good for BOS and inside 495 but problematic for NYC/CT/W & C Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 News stations this am reported Logan checked in with 3.5"...i was surprised, but 1.6 seems more reasonable Maybe 1.9 from Friday night? Seems impossible but who knows? edit: 3.6 may be right. 1.9 yesterday, 0.3 Friday, and maybe a quick inch from the burst in the wee hours after midnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 NAM also takes Northern New Eng right out of the game! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah and the problem with the NAM (it could be correct) is that it waits to close a 700mb low until basically south of BID. That's pretty late... good for BOS and inside 495 but problematic for NYC/CT/W & C Mass Adjust qpf farther NW like you posted after 12z and we'd be perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Adjust qpf farther NW like you posted after 12z and we'd be perfect Well I don't really like the 18z NAM all that much... 12z was much nicer lol It is something we'll have to watch... how quickly and close to the coast this thing goes to town in mid levels. If it's too late (like the NAM shows) it's a run of the mill 6-10" kind of deal. This solution even has Ray missing out on the good stuff... only like 7" for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 NAM also takes Northern New Eng right out of the game! Totally....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 For Dec 9, 2005? love the 6" floating in the sea of 10"+ for noho. great place to live, but unequalled as a snowhole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah and the problem with the NAM (it could be correct) is that it waits to close a 700mb low until basically south of BID. That's pretty late... good for BOS and inside 495 but problematic for NYC/CT/W & C Mass I'm kind of confident now the 12z NAM may be just another fluke run but will wait until tonight. It's not moving the overall position of the general mid level low, it's just doing the phase shift as OSU continues to accurately mention. So a solution closer to the other guidance in consensus should make the most sense. The cutoff is going to be sharp again. The big bonus here is although the evolution may roll in a similar fashion we've got a lot of moisture coming up with the parent low first...thank g*d. This is amazingly similar to what we just went through with last nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 At least the SREF held serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm kind of confident now the 12z NAM may be just another fluke run but will wait until tonight. It's not moving the overall position of the general mid level low, it's just doing the phase shift as OSU continues to accurately mention. So a solution closer to the other guidance in consensus should make the most sense. The cutoff is going to be sharp again. The big bonus here is although the evolution may roll in a similar fashion we've got a lot of moisture coming up with the parent low first...thank g*d. Yeah it's going to be a juicy storm but the 18z NAM seems awfully far south with where it reorganizes the mid level center based on the 500mb vorticity pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The NAM has not had a stable run though. I think these fine tuned meso models like the NAM fall victim to noise much more easily. Meanwhile, the Euro is very high resolution but doesn't seem to have nearly as much issues with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Has anyone seen the 12Z Euro ensemble mean for this system? Reports will be appreciated and sorry for not finding it if posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well I don't really like the 18z NAM all that much... 12z was much nicer lol It is something we'll have to watch... how quickly and close to the coast this thing goes to town in mid levels. If it's too late (like the NAM shows) it's a run of the mill 6-10" kind of deal. This solution even has Ray missing out on the good stuff... only like 7" for him. Stick with Euro verbatim. NAM usually ebbs and flows until we get a bit closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Has anyone seen the 12Z Euro ensemble mean for this system? Reports will be appreciated and sorry for not finding it if posted. Huge hit with a mid 980 low near ACK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Has anyone seen the 12Z Euro ensemble mean for this system? Reports will be appreciated and sorry for not finding it if posted. I think brian had mentioned them a few post back and if i remember right they tracked the low from MVY to PVC, But i could be wrong.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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