weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It overdoes everything, but if it plays out like Tip outlined then it could happen. And we'll see if the rest swing around a bit. Not a big concern - give me 6, 10, 12, 16, whatever. Interesting though. I think the idea of too far east is a non starter. This one will be juicy and frankly despite being in blizzard position on the guidance right now, I'm sweating mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Good post. What is the feedback in this case? You have to go back several pages and read that post I made that outlined some of mesoscale aspect and feedbacks as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 i say that the ecmf model is just south of sne and inside the bench mark area better than sat or last nigh run for that model . That just from me what does everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Even if it looks like the GFS ens, we're buried. GFS ensemble track is what we need, It keeps the storm moving NE instead of ENE, Even a tick west from that and its Warning snows all the way to the Mtns........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think the idea of too far east is a non starter. This one will be juicy and frankly despite being in blizzard position on the guidance right now, I'm sweating mixing. Me to, Except the other direction.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 GFS ensemble track is what we need, It keeps the storm moving NE instead of ENE, Even a tick west from that and its Warning snows all the way to the Mtns........ Like this distribution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BDR Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 NAM Clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 i wonder wether bloomberg is praying that they don't get buried again. " if the plowers don't plow out those lowly citizens outside the upper east side i may not get re-elected" The SNL skit last nite was pretty comical. 12z CMC seems like a scraper for SNE but it's the CMC. awaiting future nam runs like a crackhead on a binge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I am well above 50/50 on a NJ Model type event at this point. The details on the other hand probably need to be inside of 48 hours for the NAM, but... I think what is key here is what I just mentioned to Jerry - the synoptics of the global models at 72-84 hours is a set of circumstances the NAM will be uniquely qualified to handle. Awesome and understood. Very interesting, I sure hope you're right even if I don't jackpot as depicted. It'd be fun to watch. I think the idea of too far east is a non starter. This one will be juicy and frankly despite being in blizzard position on the guidance right now, I'm sweating mixing. I hope it comes through for you and everyone up there too. Jogging east does seem unlikely since we've seen how many runs of it near the BM and trends seem to be NW for the most part, if anything. Gut feeling says it'll be a classic storm with plenty of snow for all. Nothing historic, just widespread 8-12 and some above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 yes that is true ... but in these unique mesoscale-feedback scenarios, we want to start looking as early as possible. The blend of the globals together argue for a relay into the NAM's wheelhouse skill set. I've been thinking that the NAM may not be far off from the final outcome but was hesitant to say so fearing the big weenie tag. I thought the NAM performed very well with this last system inside 100hrs. In fact, I think it nailed the jackpot area almost perfectly. I could be wrong but that's my sense of it. I'm very happy to read your thoughts on this as I follow your posts closely and your 'out of the box' thinking often scores. I will admit to often having to re-read your posts several times and having to delve into the finer points more closely as I lack the wealth of knowledge you display. As a hobbyist I find some of the material very dense but enjoy the challenge. That said, how much for MBY. J/K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Like this distribution? Yes, I said i did like the ensembles, I could live with that track.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Any thought on P-Type issues? Think the Cape mixes, any thoughts on if the line comes further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Any thought on P-Type issues? Think the Cape mixes, any thoughts on if the line comes further west Not if it moves in that ENE trajectory from the Benchmark. I think it would have to get close to Nantucket to bring in enough marine air.Plus, there's a high to our north this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 NCEP MODEL DIAGNOSTIC: MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 127 PM EST SUN JAN 09 2011 ...CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND DAY 3... PREFERENCE: ECMWF THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY WEST OF THE MOST RECENT EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS LOW...LUMPING THE MIDWEST CIRCULATION TOGETHER WITH THE WAVE LIFTING UP THE EAST COAST. THE GFS TRACKS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...BUT IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND LESS INTENSE. THE GEM GLOBAL AND UKMET ARE FLATTER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE. WILL RELY ON THE MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION OF THE WESTERN CLUSTER AFFORDED BY THE ECMWF...WHICH SEEMS TO SORT THE INTERACTING ENERGY MOST REASONABLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Passing over or JUST inside the BM....40/70.3 12z Wed. Low just inside the benchmark at 72........ Perfect...thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Something brewing MLK Weekend. I think that is a given... don't we almost always get something on one of those 3 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I've been thinking that the NAM may not be far off from the final outcome but was hesitant to say so fearing the big weenie tag. I thought the NAM performed very well with this last system inside 100hrs. In fact, I think it nailed the jackpot area almost perfectly. I could be wrong but that's my sense of it. I'm very happy to read your thoughts on this as I follow your posts closely and your 'out of the box' thinking often scores. I will admit to often having to re-read your posts several times and having to delve into the finer points more closely as I lack the wealth of knowledge you display. As a hobbyist I find some of the material very dense but enjoy the challenge. That said, how much for MBY. J/K Even if the NAM is correct, you can't apply the generic "congrats GC; dryslot for E MA...AWT" tag. Track is not the only variable...as we saw with Dec 2005, these meso laden bombs are often very compat and the "jackpot" is not always where you would traditionally expect it. This probably will not be as tight and extreme as Dec 2005, but in any event, any guesses at where the jackpot was in that event?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 whats Euro showing for central ct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Even if the NAM is correct, you can't apply the generic "congrats GC; dryslot for E MA...AWT" tag. Track is not the only variable...as we saw with Dec 2005, these meso laden bomba are often very compat and the "jackpot is not always where you would traditionally expect it. This probably will not be as tight and extreme as Dec 2005, but any guesses at there the jackpot was in that event?? Cape Ann? Correction - if Dec 9 2005, Francestown NH...Newburyport for Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Preliminary sketch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Preliminary sketch Wow.. is that your forecast, or what the euro shows? Or is it both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Cape Cod. For Dec 9, 2005? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Cape Ann? Close; my driveway. ~16.5" in about 8 hrs; one of the most phenomenal spectacles of my life. ~7.5" in the final 1.5 hrs of the event....then the sun came out; all in the span of about half a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Perfect...thx. including the inevitable last minute wobbles, you look absolutely primetime for this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 For Dec 9, 2005? Nevermind, . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Jan. 2005 was the CC blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Nevermind, . The cape certainly had a fun time, though: 105 MPH...MEASURED BY PUBLIC...REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGER... ON BLOCK ISLAND. ANEMOMETER ATOP ROOF...40 FT OFF THE GROUND...WITH UNOBSTRUCTED PATH FROM OCEAN. ADDITIONAL REPORTS FROM BLOCK ISLAND RANGED FROM 78 MPH TO 94 MPH. 101 MPH...MEASURED BY PUBLIC IN WELLFLEET MA. REPORTED BY CAPE COD RADIO STATION. 100 MPH...MEASURED BY PUBLIC IN ORLEANS MA IN THE TOWN COVE SECTION. 96 MPH...MEASURED BY AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR IN EASTHAM BEFORE THE ANEMOMETER WAS KNOCKED DOWN BY A FALLING TREE. 94 MPH...MEASURED ATOP A BLUFF OVERLOOKING NANTUCKET HARBOR. 93 MPH...MEASURED AT CAPE WIND TOWER AT ELEVATION OF 20 METERS NEAR NANUCKET. 89 MPH...MEASURED BY AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR IN BREWSTER MA. 82 MPH...MEASURED BY PUBLIC IN KATAMA ON MARTHAS VINEYARD MA. 82 MPH...AT 44029 BUOY OFF OF CAPE ANN MA 81 MPH...MEASURED BY NWS EMPLOYEE IN TAUNTON MA 76 MPH...MEASURED BY BLUE HILL SCIENCE CENTER EMPLOYEE IN YARMOUTHPORT MA BEFORE THE POWER WENT OUT. 75 MPH...MEASURED BY AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR IN CHATHAM MA. 73 MPH...MEASURED BY NWS SPOTTER IN MANOMET SECTION OF PLYMOUTH MA. 64 MPH...NWS ASOS OBSERVATION AT NANTUCKET MA (ACK). 64 MPH...NWS ASOS OBSERVATION AT CHATHAM MA (CQX) BEFORE THE POWER WAS LOST. IN ADDITION...THE CHATHAM POLICE DEPT. REPORTED HAVING SIGHTED WATERSPOUTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Close; my driveway. ~16.5" in about 8 hrs; one of the most phenomenal spectacles of my life. ~7.5" in the final 1.5 hrs of the event....then the sun came out; all in the span of about half a day. So that's the one that blew your mind... hard to recover from an event on that magnitude. Thunder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 So that's the one that blew your mind... hard to recover from an event on that magnitude. Thunder? Of course......not my fav event, but it's up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Even if the NAM is correct, you can't apply the generic "congrats GC; dryslot for E MA...AWT" tag. Track is not the only variable...as we saw with Dec 2005, these meso laden bombs are often very compat and the "jackpot" is not always where you would traditionally expect it. This probably will not be as tight and extreme as Dec 2005, but in any event, any guesses at where the jackpot was in that event?? The NAM didn't get a 6 hour plot right for days and it's right this time this far out? It just tried to wrap lows too close to the coast 2-3 times in the last few days at around this range. I'm pretty sure NCEP is right in saying go with the EC consensus track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.