weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The H5 config would argue for more further away from supposed jackpot right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 In these setups, isn't there usually a monster band that sets up near the NW periphery? That could save ASH/EEN. I think yes and even further up perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah, tis true. I'll recant that statement as pure woe-is-me weenieism and let this storm play out. I don't think a 25 mile shift NW in 3 days is too much to ask for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I don't think a 25 mile shift NW in 3 days is too much to ask for. I think I might be playing the role of Ray that you performed so eloquently last night. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The H5 config would argue for more further away from supposed jackpot right? bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm loving the consistency of the Euro. Should be a snow day in most of the area Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It looks pretty similar to Euro last night....1 inch plus for SE half of SNE. Nice..there's our 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 i'm an azz man myself....euro looking good Esp. for Long island they may Jackpot in qpf So whats new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Word of caution - do not discount the NAM in this type of scenario: It's high resolution and superior convective schemes (it is a tremendous tool in the summer for initiation btw, a hidden skill set...OT) suffice a system of this type that will be highly responsive to subtle smaller scale thermal field details - this is in particular why it scored so hugely for the Dec 9 2005 event. I've read some posts about outlier this and that and I think that is a mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well weenies everyone gets a foot plus..and then we snow thru the day on Thursday...I'm naked as ajaybird right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 what is it looking like for start time in the ORH-BOS area (i.e my commute wed am) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 what is it looking like for start time in the ORH-BOS area (i.e my commute wed am) Starts after midnite Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Word of caution - do not discount the NAM in this type of scenario: It's high resolution and superior convective schemes (it is a tremendous tool in the summer for initiation btw, a hidden skill set...OT) suffice a system of this type that will be highly responsive to subtle smaller scale thermal field details - this is in particular why it scored so hugely for the Dec 9 2005 event. I've read some posts about outlier this and that and I think that is a mistake. Yes. But is it not somwhat (being kind to it) out of its skill range at 72 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 what is it looking like for start time in the ORH-BOS area (i.e my commute wed am) Take the day off and weenie it up. Wish I could... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think I might be playing the role of Ray that you performed so eloquently last night. lol Being just out of the best stuff 3 days out probably isn't a horrible thing. All we'd need is a slight shift NW for a foot, probably...so much too early to be pessimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Word of caution - do not discount the NAM in this type of scenario: It's high resolution and superior convective schemes (it is a tremendous tool in the summer for initiation btw, a hidden skill set...OT) suffice a system of this type that will be highly responsive to subtle smaller scale thermal field details - this is in particular why it scored so hugely for the Dec 9 2005 event. I've read some posts about outlier this and that and I think that is a mistake. You don't have to tell me twice! Commencing clutching. At what point will you feel good about it happening if it is still coming through like that? 60 hours? 48? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I could see a tick further nw, with such a vigorous upper level low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Something brewing MLK Weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I don't think a 25 mile shift NW in 3 days is too much to ask for. We are going to need more then 25 mile shift, We need this to hug the coast all the way up until it reaches SNE, Then if it decides to take its ENE track will need it to go over just east of BOS if we have any chance of seeing decent qpf, This ENE turn once it reaches the BM is very troubling but i have seen this all before many times over the years with these Miller A/Hybrid or whatever you want to call it, Will wait to see over the next day or so if this gets tugged back NW on future runs........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yes. But is it not somwhat (being kind to it) out of its skill range at 72 hours? yes that is true ... but in these unique mesoscale-feedback scenarios, we want to start looking as early as possible. The blend of the globals together argue for a relay into the NAM's wheelhouse skill set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 You don't have to tell me twice! Commencing clutching. At what point will you feel good about it happening if it is still coming through like that? 60 hours? 48? Inside of 48 and if it's alone...not so much. NAM overdid the weekend event as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 We are going to need more then 25 mile shift, We need this to hug the coast all the way up until it reaches SNE, Then if it decides to take its ENE track will need it to go over just east of BOS if we have any chance of seeing decent qpf, This ENE turn once it reaches the BM is very troubling but i have seen this all before many times over the years with these Miller A/Hybrid or whatever you want to call it, Will wait to see over the next day or so if this gets tugged back NW on future runs........ Yeah, you guys need more than a 25 mile shift, but I think that'd be enough for me. Still lots of time for adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Being just out of the best stuff 3 days out probably isn't a horrible thing. All we'd need is a slight shift NW for a foot, probably...so much too early to be pessimistic. Absolutely correct. A slight correction vector and we're dancing naked in the dendritic deliciousness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 yes that is true ... but in these unique mesoscale-feedback scenarios, we want to start looking as early as possible. The blend of the globals together argue for a relay into the NAM's wheelhouse skill set. Good post. What is the feedback in this case? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I could see a tick further nw, with such a vigorous upper level low. So we can lock it in, Scott says this comes back NW........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Inside of 48 and if it's alone...not so much. NAM overdid the weekend event as well. It overdoes everything, but if it plays out like Tip outlined then it could happen. And we'll see if the rest swing around a bit. Not a big concern - give me 6, 10, 12, 16, whatever. Interesting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 You don't have to tell me twice! Commencing clutching. At what point will you feel good about it happening if it is still coming through like that? 60 hours? 48? I am well above 50/50 on a NJ Model type event at this point. The details on the other hand probably need to be inside of 48 hours for the NAM, but... I think what is key here is what I just mentioned to Jerry - the synoptics of the global models at 72-84 hours is a set of circumstances the NAM will be uniquely qualified to handle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 So we can lock it in, Scott says this comes back NW........... Even if it looks like the GFS ens, we're buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 So we can lock it in, Scott says this comes back NW........... I must've missed this. I feel so silly for my Eeyoring. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 So we can lock it in, Scott says this comes back NW........... "Could" see....different then "will" see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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