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Coastal Storm Potential - Jan 11-12


Baroclinic Zone

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Aside from the NAM.. you are getting mostly snow on most models

Again, I won't be here to enjoy it anyways. I am going ot BOS tomorrow afternoon, so I will again not be able to be on the laptop for two months afterwards. However I go through Logan Airport on Tuesday, my flight is sometime between 12pm and 4pm est in my best guess. Chances are we will be flying over the storm as we head towards San Antonio, TX. I don't have the specifics of my flight, which is probably good for security concerns. Anyways I will miss this storm, regardless of rain or snow. My best bet is if the models speed the storm up, but it doesn't even appear to happen that way, even with a relatively progressive flow and a rather progressive polar jet stream present in this La Nina winter.

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12z NAM looks like thunder-snowstorms for NYC-BOS....

I see a track to this similar to 9 December 2005.

The sun may actually come out later in the day on Wednesday.

I will never forget that storm, and just the mention of it possibly happening again is insanely exciting.

The sun came out that December afternoon too, as you know, after the most intense thundersnow all afternoon.

Best. Storm. Ever. Not just because of the totals, but because of the amazing weather display, and that it happened during the day. (Also that I had family visiting from AZ, and they were equally amazed -- that made it special.)

Thanks for even mentioning it.

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I will never forget that storm, and just the mention of it possibly happening again is insanely exciting.

The sun came out that December afternoon too, as you know, after the most intense thundersnow all afternoon.

Best. Storm. Ever. Not just because of the totals, but because of the amazing weather display, and that it happened during the day. (Also that I had family visiting from AZ, and they were equally amazed -- that made it special.)

Thanks for even mentioning it.

wow the globals just stuck a dagger in the hearts of NNE weenies.

oh and the storm we had last nite....1978 analogs were being throw around. (albeit 5 days or so from when it hit)

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Pending the EURO...seems like there is somewhat of a consesus a little outside the benchmark. NAM seems to be the outlier in its further west solution.

Yeah, seems like we're trending towards more of a graze last night and this afternoon, except for the NAM. Can't say I like this.

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Yeah, seems like we're trending towards more of a graze last night and this afternoon, except for the NAM. Can't say I like this.

nope after johns post....and i realize this is not a monster coming out of the gulf of mexico...(i.e not a miller a )...then my hopes for N corrections were tempered....this looks more and more like a NJ SE NYS CT RI SE Mass special. mass pike south. i'll probably get 3.....while PVD gets 12.

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The SREFs held steady with a track near ACK both 03 and 09z however there are some seriously whacked out nearly isnide runners maybe bumping the mean too far NW. The 12z nogaps and ggem both came in looking a bit better than 00z so that's some good news.

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This event is really sneaking in there spacial-temporally with respect to the governing teleconnector spread. There really is limited support for it - but I think that is compensated nicely by the fact that this a longitudinal event that doesn't require a huge bandwidth of atmosphere to do its thing... The NJ Model low as it were, is a finite operation that takes place in the meso-beta scale, and doesn't require the incorporation of giant mass fields like a KU storm for example.

Likewise, while this system is not a good analog for Dec 9 2005 when considering scales from upper Manatoba to Cape Hatteras, to Nova Scotia, the meso-beta scale is quite similar actually. These tweener systems can sneak in between the teleconnector spreads because there is a relative disconnect between the larger synoptic scale.

Btw, the CPC and to some lesser degree the CDC have a solid +SD gain in the PNA over the next 7-10days, while the NOA shows a marked relaxation to neutral. That scream archembaultian event, yet interestingly ...there is nothing modeled.

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