MaineJayhawk Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 At 75 it looks to track the surface low somewhere between the BM and ACK..... Edit: Look like its right on the benchmark or a smidge west 996 just SE of ACK at 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well, when all other worthy model guidance has a track there, why would you think otherwise? We shall see. Hey, can you tell me I have a slim chance of seeing greater than 4" of snow from this system? Last time things worked out very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 We have a huge storm coming and the whining has begun already, wow Well I stated my opinion and looking at the 12z NAM, it's made a shift to the east since 06z. 12z GFS looks a tad SE as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 We shall see. Hey, can you tell me I have a slim chance of seeing greater than 4" of snow from this system? Last time things worked out very well. Guarantee you'll see 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well I stated my opinion and looking at the 12z NAM, it's made a shift to the east since 06z. 12z GFS looks a tad SE as well. Looks like over the BM and ne from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Perhaps more ne. I'm not a big fan of the turn right as it reaches CC's latitude. Need to go further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It looks like it goes very near the BM, and then nne from there. Looks like it strengthens rapidly as it moves nne. Yeah, Not so good once it gets to the benchmark, It esacpes NNE pretty quickly........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Not bad for day 3 AWT, moving to high confidence of a warning event if this holds through 00z and working on pushing the accumulations up. Beautiful stuff. Be happy all...it's gonna snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks like over the BM and ne from there. Yup. I'm pretty confident I'll see 6" out of this at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think the GFS is in a good spot. Much rather it be a bit SE than too far NW at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 IMO, QPF shield does not correlate with storm intensity, but that's something that can be worked out once we have track under control Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Just a tad further S & E compared to 06z GFS but there is more energy rounding the base of the ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm not a big fan of the turn right as it reaches CC's latitude. Need to go further north. Well we are still 3 days out. We'll see what the euro does, as there is wiggle room for either direction. I wouldn't be shocked if the final outcome is nw of the gfs, but we still have lots of time for either trend. This would give messenger a massive stinger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Since when is the GFS Dr. No? Looking forward to the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm not a big fan of the turn right as it reaches CC's latitude. Need to go further north. And now you are seeing what my fears are on this type of system, We need this to go another 50-75 miles north before it does a right turn, But its The GFS and we still have the rest of the guidance, I would take a track in between the Nam and the GFS though to some extent.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think the GFS is in a good spot. Much rather it be a bit SE than too far NW at this juncture. Thats key......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well we are still 3 days out. We'll see what the euro does, as there is wiggle room for either direction. I wouldn't be shocked if the final outcome is nw of the gfs, but we still have lots of time for either trend. This would give messenger a massive stinger. Yeah, no real concerns, just a comment about the run. I like my position here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Not to be rude but Sam, are you off your rocker?, this is a totally different animal. Look at the 7 h Rh and 8 h inflow, you CANOT compare this to 12/26 , totally different, the dry slot in EMA is there but, look at your Kocin book, man Will mentioned March 60 , he is so on top of things. I NEVER mentioned 12/26. Yes, abundant similarities to March 1960 ... plus 20mb, minus compressibility over the southeast, minus strong ridging to the northeast to keep the mid level low from doing exactly what I described, and thus MINUS 15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think this is a good spot for the GFS right now being slightly SE as we may see a couple ticks back NW in time...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phishn Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 12z NAM looks like thunder-snowstorms for NYC-BOS.... This is much less a Miller A modeled system and more of a NJ model low. What is going on here is complex - perhaps misleading to some degree. There is a lead S/W (now) over Texas that is giving the deep south headaches. The mid level support for that is attenuating, and will all but completely abolish by 00z Tuesday, but not before inducing a weak surface reflection that migrates eastward along the southern rim of the cP air mass, lopping overrunning snow and ice enough to through up warnings down there. However, this wave of low pressure gets orphaned by the said weakening governing dynamics. Meanwhile, a much stronger full trough ejection out of the west will be fully underway by 00z Tuesday. This next short wave has a very intense jet max(es) associated, enough to drill over 40 units of vorticity almost normal to the geopotential medium - all that is missing is moisture. This is where it gets really yucky. That leading southern stream impulse and weak juicy wave of low pressure is actually during the interim stealing moisture from the more polarward stream dynamics. This is why there is only a weak amorphous area of low pressure moving ENE from the MV to the upper MA Coast over the next 36 hours. What happens next is intriguing. It eventually latches on to said vestigial circulation as it trundles calling for mommy off the southeast U.S. coast. The orphaned SE Coastal low gets pulled N and it is not until it's moisture supply gets involved do we see the surface wave more than less bomb moving ENE away from the NJ Coast. I see a track to this similar to 9 December 2005. I suspect an intense thermal compression forms just S of LI with this cP air mass residing over the shelf waters S of LI. That region is likely to generate a very upright frontal slope as the nose of the jet max at mid levels enters the region and excites lift. The incoming lower level WAA responses will slam into this cP denser air mass and be tilted very proficiently skyward. This mechanically forced ascent, also having the benefit of the orphaned waves moisture supply, will tap into the jet core at mid levels and that is when things rock 'n' roll. Immediately on the polar ward side of this baroclinic axis there will like be a band or parallel bands of -EPV and some impressive frontogenics at work. I see that QPF eruption in the NAM at 72 hours over much of NJ, going from a paltry 6-hourly .25" liq equiv to nearly 1.25" 6-hour equiv in a flash as being about equally synoptic driven but also convective in nature. This whole package of fun and games then lifts NE...bathing much of SNE with S+/S++ with occasional lighting. The sun may actually come out later in the day on Wednesday. Excellent post! Thanks Tip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 just my amateur opinion......we'll have to wait to see what the rest of the models suite shows, but personally im not impressed with the latest runs for NNE since the 00z euro there is a clear trend of the ULL being a bit more SE, the flow is less amplified and more progressive as it hits the coast pushing the trough offshore eastward, and the Davis strait block is exerting more force. im not talking about any single run, but the collective trends of the models since the 00z euro and since. of course that can all change at this range, but this is starting to look good for NYC-SNE corridor at this time. i think the NAM is out to lunch and will correct itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It is a moot point but regarding the Nam . The banding site has some nice finite details . The center of the bombing LP moves just under CC east , it also shows the best CSI and frontogenesis not in NJ but rather ORH area NCT EMA on front end. this does have that 12-9-05 look in the CSI , seen that reference in several mets posts, interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 not to be 'slow' or anything, but can someone please decode 'AWT' for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 not to be 'slow' or anything, but can someone please decode 'AWT' for me? As we thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 not to be 'slow' or anything, but can someone please decode 'AWT' for me? 'As We Thought' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah, Not so good once it gets to the benchmark, It esacpes ENE pretty quickly........ fixed. it scoots up to the BM or more precise 41/69 going NE then scoots ENE. suck run for DE maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 JUJU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 not to be 'slow' or anything, but can someone please decode 'AWT' for me? Read under my avatar........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 As We Thought.. Kool... I had googled it and came up with variously: 'Association of Water Technologies', 'Advanced Windows Toolkit', and 'Applied Weather Technologies'! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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