Arnold214 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 What's the time frame on this map? total snow thru 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 total snow thru 84 hours. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm not smiling at another dagger of death for snh...uggghhh dom. off to the next model please We'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think we need to install a new radar up there to get better coverage. Friday night he had 5-10dbz echoes overhead and was snowing at M1/4SM. Miracles happen up there!!! microscale phenomena...upslope from the garage roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think we need to install a new radar up there to get better coverage. Friday night he had 5-10dbz echoes overhead and was snowing at M1/4SM. Miracles happen up there!!! Really? I'm surprised it's not the opposite. You'd think all the falling acorns would contaminate the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Not bad for day 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 microscale phenomena...upslope from the garage roof. Or from the piles of acorns he has in the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 thanks to last nite's "event" this thing sort of snuck up on me......T-67 hrs till precip starts...(wed 3-4am) ....someone slap me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 ginx it was S box wx who made the comparison for 12/26 although that may be not far from what sam was implying? I will take my chances with 850 inflow east at 60 knots with 7 h RH at 95 % for QPF being underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Or from the piles of acorns dead 'munks he has in the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 SAMs writing War and Peace, it cool dude it's the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think Mek and Ryan have man love for KeV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Great I will miss another good snowstorm for SNE. However this looks primarily rain for me out on the Cape with this storm. Its too bad the flow ahead of the large sub-tropical disturbance is too fast and strong and therefore will allow the disturbance to shear out ahead of the northern stream, I mean look at all of that lightning over the western GOM and that large beautiful water vapor imagery of this system. It is too bad they don't phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think Mek and Ryan have man love for KeV how can you not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 12z NAM looks like thunder-snowstorms for NYC-BOS.... This is much less a Miller A modeled system and more of a NJ model low. What is going on here is complex - perhaps misleading to some degree. There is a lead S/W (now) over Texas that is giving the deep south headaches. The mid level support for that is attenuating, and will all but completely abolish by 00z Tuesday, but not before inducing a weak surface reflection that migrates eastward along the southern rim of the cP air mass, lopping overrunning snow and ice enough to through up warnings down there. However, this wave of low pressure gets orphaned by the said weakening governing dynamics. Meanwhile, a much stronger full trough ejection out of the west will be fully underway by 00z Tuesday. This next short wave has a very intense jet max(es) associated, enough to drill over 40 units of vorticity almost normal to the geopotential medium - all that is missing is moisture. This is where it gets really yucky. That leading southern stream impulse and weak juicy wave of low pressure is actually during the interim stealing moisture from the more polarward stream dynamics. This is why there is only a weak amorphous area of low pressure moving ENE from the MV to the upper MA Coast over the next 36 hours. What happens next is intriguing. It eventually latches on to said vestigial circulation as it trundles calling for mommy off the southeast U.S. coast. The orphaned SE Coastal low gets pulled N and it is not until it's moisture supply gets involved do we see the surface wave more than less bomb moving ENE away from the NJ Coast. I see a track to this similar to 9 December 2005. I suspect an intense thermal compression forms just S of LI with this cP air mass residing over the shelf waters S of LI. That region is likely to generate a very upright frontal slope as the nose of the jet max at mid levels enters the region and excites lift. The incoming lower level WAA responses will slam into this cP denser air mass and be tilted very proficiently skyward. This mechanically forced ascent, also having the benefit of the orphaned waves moisture supply, will tap into the jet core at mid levels and that is when things rock 'n' roll. Immediately on the polar ward side of this baroclinic axis there will like be a band or parallel bands of -EPV and some impressive frontogenics at work. I see that QPF eruption in the NAM at 72 hours over much of NJ, going from a paltry 6-hourly .25" liq equiv to nearly 1.25" 6-hour equiv in a flash as being about equally synoptic driven but also convective in nature. This whole package of fun and games then lifts NE...bathing much of SNE with S+/S++ with occasional lighting. The sun may actually come out later in the day on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think Mek and Ryan have man love for KeV . . . Kev only has eyes for Wiz. I speak the truth, and have verified this with Wiz's signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 We have a huge storm coming and the whining has begun already, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Great I will miss another good snowstorm for SNE. However this looks primarily rain for me out on the Cape with this storm. Its too bad the flow ahead of the large sub-tropical disturbance is too fast and strong and therefore will allow the disturbance to shear out ahead of the northern stream, I mean look at all of that lightning over the western GOM and that large beautiful water vapor imagery of this system. It is too bad they don't phase. Aside from the NAM.. you are getting mostly snow on most models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 We have a huge storm coming and the whining has begun already, wow Once you get under 84 hours.. the qpf bitching begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 We have a huge storm coming and the whining has begun already, wow Yes, far to go with it. Should be neither ball spiking nor chair tipping yet. Everybody in New England stands a good chance of nice snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 how can you not? LOl I know it although the perfect snow piles at the end of the driveway kinda is OCD. Did you see his FB page when his neighbor plowed one down, LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 12z NAM looks like thunder-snowstorms for NYC-BOS.... This is much less a Miller A modeled system and more of a NJ model low. What is going on here is complex - perhaps misleading to some degree. There is a lead S/W (now) over Texas that is giving the deep south headaches. The mid level support for that is attenuating, and will all but completely abolish by 00z Tuesday, but not before inducing a weak surface reflection that migrates eastward along the southern rim of the cP air mass, lopping overrunning snow and ice enough to through up warnings down there. However, this wave of low pressure gets orphaned by the said weakening governing dynamics. Meanwhile, a much stronger full trough ejection out of the west will be fully underway by 00z Tuesday. This next short wave has a very intense jet max(es) associated, enough to drill over 40 units of vorticity almost normal to the geopotential medium - all that is missing is moisture. This is where it gets really yucky. That leading southern stream impulse and weak juicy wave of low pressure is actually during the interim stealing moisture from the more polarward stream dynamics. This is way there is only a weak amorphous area of low pressure moving ENE from the MV to the upper MA Coast over the next 36 hours. What happens next is intriguing. It eventually latches on to said vestigial circulation as it trundles calling for mommy off the southeast U.S. coast. The orphaned SE Coastal low gets pulled N and it is not until it's moisture supply gets involved do we see the surface wave more than less bomb moving ENE away from the NJ Coast. I see a track to this similar to 9 December 2005. I suspect an intense thermal compression forms just S of LI with this cP air mass residing over the shelf waters S of LI. That region is likely to generate a very upright frontal slope as the nose of the jet max at mid levels enters the region and excites lift. The incoming lower level WAA responses will slam into this cP denser air mass and be tilted very proficiently skyward. This mechanically forced ascent, also having the benefit of the orphaned waves moisture supply, will tap into the jet core at mid levels and that is when things rock 'n' roll. Immediately on the polar ward side of this baroclinic axis there will like be a band or parallel bands of -EPV and some impressive frontogenics at work. I see that QPF eruption in the NAM at 72 hours over much of NJ, going from a paltry 6-hourly .25" liq equiv to nearly 1.25" 6-hour equiv in a flash as being about equally synoptic driven but also convective in nature. This whole package of fun and games then lifts NE...bathing much of SNE with S+/S++ with occasional lighting. The sun may actually come out later in the day on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 GFS seems a little stronger but a hair se of 06z at H5, through hr 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 GFS seems a little stronger but a hair se of 06z at H5, through hr 66. At 75 it looks to track the surface low somewhere between the BM and ACK..... Edit: Look like its right on the benchmark or a smidge west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Of course you do. Well, when all other worthy model guidance has a track there, why would you think otherwise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 At 75 it looks to track the surface low somewhere between the BM and ACK..... AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 At 75 it looks to track the surface low somewhere between the BM and ACK..... It looks like it goes very near the BM, and then nne from there. Looks like it strengthens rapidly as it moves nne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 New GFS def. a bit more amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It looks like it goes very near the BM, and then nne from there. Looks like it strengthens rapidly as it moves nne. Perhaps more ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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