Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Just saw 8.1" in Oakdale last night... nice! Last night?, holy crap I was there yesterday AM, they had 8-10 down already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Dude watch the JUJU Merely pointing out what 12z NAM shows verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Don't be fooled by the track of the surface low. This run stinks for a lot of the region; basically screws us. Everything is lined up perfectly for a huge dump of snow in northern NJ and SE NY, and it looks like that oughtta translate northeast with the surface low. Problem is that the mid level low is still very progressive. Doesn't matter if it looks like the surface low slows down, the mid level low is still booking it east. It actually keeps redeveloping eastward too, as it gets sheared out by the intense gradient flow. One of the times it redevelops on this run is from eastern PA over toward the Gulf of Maine. That's a big jump, and one that significantly limits the duration of CCB enhanced snowfall over the area. QPF is likely OVERDONE in portions of southeast New England with major dryslot issues. And then they basically go from dryslot to backside flurries as the CCB skips right over. Two jackpot areas on this run are northern NJ and SE NY, and then downeast ME, with a large screwzone in between. The saving grace hopefully to all this is that its a 84hr depiction of the NAM, So my guess this far out that this probably will not be the final outcome......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah verbatim, it probably would. NAM is a western outlier, but we'll see what 12z does. It's like the surface low got sucked into the H5 low..lol. I agree, I think it's just too amped up. I like a track just inside or over the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Don't be fooled by the track of the surface low. This run stinks for a lot of the region; basically screws us. Everything is lined up perfectly for a huge dump of snow in northern NJ and SE NY, and it looks like that oughtta translate northeast with the surface low. Problem is that the mid level low is still very progressive. Doesn't matter if it looks like the surface low slows down, the mid level low is still booking it east. It actually keeps redeveloping eastward too, as it gets sheared out by the intense gradient flow. One of the times it redevelops on this run is from eastern PA over toward the Gulf of Maine. That's a big jump, and one that significantly limits the duration of CCB enhanced snowfall over the area. QPF is likely OVERDONE in portions of southeast New England with major dryslot issues. And then they basically go from dryslot to backside flurries as the CCB skips right over. Two jackpot areas on this run are northern NJ and SE NY, and then downeast ME, with a large screwzone in between. I'm interpreting this as you think most of SNE is essentially a screw zone?? That's hard for me to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm interpreting this as you think most of SNE is essentially a screw zone?? That's hard for me to believe. Not even looking it sounds eerily similar to 12/26 regarding mid levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The NAM would imply nice CF enhancement too somewhere near BOS and ne mass. It's sort of pointless to worry about dryslot issues or mid level issues right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm interpreting this as you think most of SNE is essentially a screw zone?? That's hard for me to believe. yes any other pro's care to comment. (re; mid level low destinted to book east/ progressive/ ) any analogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Two jackpot areas on this run are northern NJ and SE NY . . .. LOL and anyone is surprised by this over the past 12 months? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The NAM would imply nice CF enhancement too somewhere near BOS and ne mass. It's sort of pointless to worry about dryslot issues or mid level issues right now. Yup. Sounds like 12/26 redux on NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Nam storm total snow for grins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I agree, I think it's just too amped up. I like a track just inside or over the BM. Of course you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Wxwatcher makes a good point though its the 84 hr NAM with some serious discontinuity from previous runs, which should tell you all you need to know. the major point im seeing is a shift in the ULL south and east over the OV towards the coast and less of a primary and hangback snows over the OV/lake region. bascially its just trending towards the euro/GFS compromise lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Nam storm total snow for grins. That'll do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Nam storm total snow for grins. Screw zone for Mt Tolland while the Valley cashes in????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Of course you do. Of course you don't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Screw zone for Mt Tolland while the Valley cashes in????? Downsloped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Screw zone for Mt Tolland while the Valley cashes in????? Kevin's max possible snowfall in any given storm is 15"...so that's about right. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The saving grace hopefully to all this is that its a 84hr depiction of the NAM, So my guess this far out that this probably will not be the final outcome......... Yeah, can't take this verbatim. However, the progressive theme is consistent on all the model guidance, and I think that's one thing everyone has to keep in mind. This will likely be a 6 hour dump for most, with some light snow on the backside, which significantly limits QPF. There WILL likely be a small jackpot area where the duration of heavy snow is prolonged (probably with10-16") that occurs before the 500mb low "redevelops" eastward and a there WILL likely be downstream screwzone (with generally 6-10") . Unless we see some significant changes with regards to compressibility over the southeast US. By the way, I'm not complaining. I'm fine with 6-10", but just trying to keep a level head here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Kevin's max possible snowfall in any given storm is 15"...so that's about right. lol. lol which is ironic because he claims to upslope in any given flow regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Of course you don't I assure you sound meteorological reasoning stands behind my call for this to hang in tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Screw zone for Mt Tolland while the Valley cashes in????? actually he does get 14 on that map (of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Don't be fooled by the track of the surface low. This run stinks for a lot of the region; basically screws us. Everything is lined up perfectly for a huge dump of snow in northern NJ and SE NY, and it looks like that oughtta translate northeast with the surface low. Problem is that the mid level low is still very progressive. Doesn't matter if it looks like the surface low slows down, the mid level low is still booking it east. It actually keeps redeveloping eastward too, as it gets sheared out by the intense gradient flow. One of the times it redevelops on this run is from eastern PA over toward the Gulf of Maine. That's a big jump, and one that significantly limits the duration of CCB enhanced snowfall over the area. QPF is likely OVERDONE in portions of southeast New England with major dryslot issues. And then they basically go from dryslot to backside flurries as the CCB skips right over. Two jackpot areas on this run are northern NJ and SE NY, and then downeast ME, with a large screwzone in between. Not to be rude but Sam, are you off your rocker?, this is a totally different animal. Look at the 7 h Rh and 8 h inflow, you CANOT compare this to 12/26 , totally different, the dry slot in EMA is there but, look at your Kocin book, man Will mentioned March 60 , he is so on top of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I assure you sound meteorological reasoning stands behind my call for this to hang in tight. :thumbsup: your area is looking very very good and has some wiggle room .....regardless of ML lows or track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Nam storm total snow for grins. What's the time frame on this map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 lol which is ironic because he claims to upslope in any given flow regime. He gets pissed if he hears anything about tolland getting the jackpot...ie...he prefers to get screwed b/c the season for him is not a race...it's a marathon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I assure you sound meteorological reasoning stands behind my call for this to hang in tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Nam storm total snow for grins. I'm not smiling at another dagger of death for snh...uggghhh dom. off to the next model please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 He gets pissed if he hears anything about tolland getting the jackpot...ie...he prefers to get screwed b/c the season for him is not a race...it's a marathon. I think we need to install a new radar up there to get better coverage. Friday night he had 5-10dbz echoes overhead and was snowing at M1/4SM. Miracles happen up there!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Not to be rude but Sam, are you off your rocker?, this is a totally different animal. Look at the 7 h Rh and 8 h inflow, you CANOT compare this to 12/26 , totally different, the dry slot in EMA is there but, look at your Kocin book, man Will mentioned March 60 , he is so on top of things. ginx it was S box wx who made the comparison for 12/26 although that may be not far from what sam was implying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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