dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 LOL 18" in Southbury CT again. Storms this year so far are really liking those areas as well as NJ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah, probably easily that much. Have to assume there will be 2-3"/hr banding in there. Yeah I meant 7-10" for S coast with dry slot issues then 12"+ easy for NW areas of SNE into S NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Look at mid-level lows, not slp...7h low is over SNE, not good for southern areas. yeah, from RI to SE MAss not sure what that means for dryslot.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 this run of nam looks like E 1/2 of NJ/ SNY SW CT GC over to NW ri /ORH thru hr 66....then to panel 72 NW burbs of boston S/vt and SNH looks like what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Here we go again. You watch SNH get dry slotted just like the Christmas storm! If I'm understanding what I've been reading a track near cc canal would have a different outcome this time because of the fact that the bombing is happening earlier like a more typical classic noreater. This would be very very good track for snh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 With a track like the NAM shows I'd expect the max QPF to be shifted a bit NW of where it shows... probably over Litchfield Co, Berkshire Foothills, into NE Mass. Probably cut down QPF a bit south of that axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 We get raked though . I imagine we might see a consensus somewhere in between ACK and the BM by the time the 12z runs are through. Those qpf totals are low up here, It was still snowing at a good clip at hr 84 so those qpf numbers will be higher..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah... still probably a 7-10" hit before they dry slot. I like NW CT, W and N Mass (N&W of ORH) for that kind of track. Verbatim just BOS SE but who cares at this point, occlusion at 850 very cool, 12-16 statewide per this run except GON 6-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Verbatim just BOS SE but who cares at this point, occlusion at 850 very cool, 12-16 statewide per this run except GON 6-12 Probably more like 15-20" based on NAM for NW of HFD, 10-15" HFD/HVN, and 5-10" S NL County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 With a track like the NAM shows I'd expect the max QPF to be shifted a bit NW of where it shows... probably over Litchfield Co, Berkshire Foothills, into NE Mass. Probably cut down QPF a bit south of that axis. Yeah verbatim, it probably would. NAM is a western outlier, but we'll see what 12z does. It's like the surface low got sucked into the H5 low..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 986 on Cape Cod. Good track for me. Me likey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah verbatim, it probably would. NAM is a western outlier, but we'll see what 12z does. It's like the surface low got sucked into the H5 low..lol. The key here someone is going to get crushed. Mega forcing with a 6-10 hour period. Someone gets destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Still snowing through hr 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Me likey. A lot will likey... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 NAM is awfully toasty in the boundary layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The key here someone is going to get crushed. Mega forcing with a 6-10 hour period. Someone gets destroyed. I like how it's juiced...that seems to be a given..even if NAM is going nuts with qpf. You have Gulf origins, and awesome Atlantic inflow. I still think somewhere near ACK and BM if you had a gun to head, but this is without seeing rest of the 12z suite. That could change a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Still snowing through hr 84. We were still snowing at a good clip here, So the qpf up this way is low as the system is not done here..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I like how it's juiced...that seems to be a given..even if NAM is going nuts with qpf. You have Gulf origins, and awesome Atlantic inflow. I still think somewhere near ACK and BM if you had a gun to head, but this is without seeing rest of the 12z suite. That could change a bit. Yeah I like it too... it's really a great setup for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 A lot will likey... A lot of others will watch QPF spiral down the storm drains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 looks like what? lol ground central for snow. lots of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 We were still snowing at a good clip here, So the qpf up this way is low as the system is not done here..... Yeah it really has a big circulation. I wouldn't focus on qpf as much, but rather the broad and moist flow coming into the Maine coast at hr 84. QPF can be secondary at this stage of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 A lot of others will watch QPF spiral down the storm drains. Were getting buried. Lock it. Got my 19" here on 12/26 expect two feet come 1/12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 yeah, from RI to SE MAss not sure what that means for dryslot.. Probably Mass Pike- Route two style dryslot. N of there you're saturated and probably heavy heavy deformation banding, south of there light snow, to spitting flurries/drizzle far SE. That's just my interpetation of the NAM, not necessarily what I think will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah it really has a big circulation. I wouldn't focus on qpf as much, but rather the broad and moist flow coming into the Maine coast at hr 84. QPF can be secondary at this stage of the game. Yes, It has great inflow, And like you said earlier i think, It has a ample moisture source ....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 A lot of others will watch QPF spiral down the storm drains. A few.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Probably more like 15-20" based on NAM for NW of HFD, 10-15" HFD/HVN, and 5-10" S NL County. Heavy heavy no school/ work Wed , long weekend FMW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Heavy heavy no school/ work Wed , long weekend FMW Just saw 8.1" in Oakdale last night... nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Some pretty big differences from 06z and 12z NAM at H5. H5 is much further east but deeper. I guess that's why the NAM came nw, but I wonder if the NAM is doing that phasing thing again. I would have thought it would hold steady. That's why we have the globals coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 A lot of others will watch QPF spiral down the storm drains. Dude watch the JUJU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Don't be fooled by the track of the surface low. This run stinks for a lot of the region; basically screws us. Everything is lined up perfectly for a huge dump of snow in northern NJ and SE NY, and it looks like that oughtta translate northeast with the surface low. Problem is that the mid level low is still very progressive. Doesn't matter if it looks like the surface low slows down, the mid level low is still booking it east. It actually keeps redeveloping eastward too, as it gets sheared out by the intense gradient flow. One of the times it redevelops on this run is from eastern PA over toward the Gulf of Maine. That's a big jump, and one that significantly limits the duration of CCB enhanced snowfall over the area. QPF is likely OVERDONE in portions of southeast New England with major dryslot issues. And then they basically go from dryslot to backside flurries as the CCB skips right over. Two jackpot areas on this run are northern NJ and SE NY, and then downeast ME, with a large screwzone in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.