moneypitmike Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 MIDWEST TO MID ATLC/NORTHEAST... BROAD CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST WITH SHRTWV ENERGY SHEARING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. LGT TO MDT SNOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL FOCUS WITHIN THE FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENT PATTERN AND ALONG EXTENSIVE SFC TROUGH FROM IL TO PA AS WEAK SFC WAVE FORMS ALONG THE BNDRY. AS THE BULK OF THE UPPER ENERGY CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS...A MUCH STRONGER SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE EAST COAST TUES INTO WEDS. ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST THAT HVST PRECIP WILL ALIGN CLOSE TO THE COAST FROM NJ TO SRN NEW ENG...BUT A SLIGHTLY MORE WWD TRACK WOULD PRODUCE HVY SNOW TOTALS FARTHER INLAND AS INDICATED BY A NUMBER OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE 21Z SREF MEAN. BL TEMPS MAY ALSO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST...ESPECIALLY CAPE COD. Well, the 03z SREF mean seems pretty close to CC for a sfc low track and the smoothed 7h looks to dryslot a good portion of coastal S NE but keeps interior moist. I would say that's probably the best forecast right now, maybe farther SE with slp than CC. May or may not be right. THat's a ballsy call right there! lol This is one of these situations where inter-region rivalries will flare. GC/Jay/Eric areas really pulling for that Cape Track, everyone else liking those BM runs. We might split the goal posts and say congrats to Dave. Here's to a really amped and slower 12z run! I'll see it early evening when I get home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 From BOX AFD: AS WE SEE IT THIS MORNING...THIS LOOKS TO BE A MAJOR SNOW EVENT FOR MOST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. THE POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS STORM. THE MODELS HAVE NOT SERVED US WELL LATELY...SO HAVE SOME SKEPTICISM THAT SOMETHING DIFFERENT MAY HAPPEN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION VERY CLOSELY. Once bitten......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 THat's a ballsy call right there! lol This is one of these situations where inter-region rivalries will flare. GC/Jay/Eric areas really pulling for that Cape Track, everyone else liking those BM runs. We might split the goal posts and say congrats to Dave. Here's to a really amped and slower 12z run! I'll see it early evening when I get home. drive safe mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 From BOX AFD: AS WE SEE IT THIS MORNING...THIS LOOKS TO BE A MAJOR SNOW EVENT FOR MOST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. THE POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS STORM. THE MODELS HAVE NOT SERVED US WELL LATELY...SO HAVE SOME SKEPTICISM THAT SOMETHING DIFFERENT MAY HAPPEN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION VERY CLOSELY. Once bitten......... This part is better at least: THEN WILL WORK UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES THAT THIS LOW WILL BECOME A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE REGION DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. So many had that CONFIDENCE IS LOW part... Bob should start all storm threads... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 drive safe mike Thanks. Hopeuflly like it was coming down here. After the ridiculous conditions driving down on Friday through Fairifeld county, I as expecting hell with rush hour traffice since we were hitting the NY line at 5:00p.m. There was NOTHING. I lived in the NYC area for about 12 years and never has as few cars on the road. What a surprise treat that was! This part is better at least: THEN WILL WORK UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES THAT THIS LOW WILL BECOME A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE REGION DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. So many had that CONFIDENE IS LOW part... Bob should start all storm threads... Yes--the confidence statement is nice. Even ALY's discussion is providing some weenie fodder for us out west. If anyone's up to shooting me a text of 12z runs (essentially--SE BM, over Cape, etc.) to 207-798-0799, would much appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 storm looks great on radar over texas, alot of energy with this one upton has this starting tue night for my area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Nice to see some model consistency for this tues/wed event. This storm may delight all the SNE weenies. and then the GFS has a 992mb bomb coming up the coast around day 10. This pattern is looking good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Nice to see some model consistency for this tues/wed event. This storm may delight all the SNE weenies. and then the GFS has a 992mb bomb coming up the coast around day 10. This pattern is looking good! Indeed. CoT wills it to be such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 SREFs look nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 SREFs look nice. I know its a tug of war, But a NW shift is whats needed up here for ME/NH/VT.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I know its a tug of war, But a NW shift is whats needed up here for ME/NH/VT.. That's just what I believe will happen. Nice that the models seem somewhat stable wrt to track as we don't need it to come all that much farther NW. The 'correction vector' (as TT so aptly coined) is our friend on this one. This has a very familiar feel to me and a NW drift will likely start to show with the 12z suite tomorrow. That's my take anyway. Let the Easterners sling the arrows now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I know its a tug of war, But a NW shift is whats needed up here for ME/NH/VT.. Yeah still some wiggle room with this. As it is right now, there still seems to be a good band of snow to the nw with this, thanks to the ULL helping out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 That's just what I believe will happen. Nice that the models seem somewhat stable wrt to track as we don't need it to come all that much farther NW. The 'correction vector' (as TT so aptly coined) is our friend on this one. This has a very familiar feel to me and a NW drift will likely start to show with the 12z suite tomorrow. That's my take anyway. Let the Easterners sling the arrows now. I agree, There is some room for this to jog west, Especially if it gets amped up sooner....... Yeah still some wiggle room with this. As it is right now, there still seems to be a good band of snow to the nw with this, thanks to the ULL helping out. It really does not need to be a huge shift either to pan out better, I know it will effect some but the majority would benefit..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I feel 97% confident we'll see Blizzard watches/warnings from this triple bunner for you :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 triple bunner for you :weenie: That was the 3% that was missing...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 so in a basic sense .....what may cause this to amplify sooner.....energy from the OH valley low transferring sooner......or the gulf low moving slower....(thus further W/ or SW When it deepens)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I do like the fact that this system appears to have a lot of moisture with it which makes the qpf field pretty expansive.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I feel 97% confident we'll see Blizzard watches/warnings from this Not here we won't need one... not nearly enough wind. Maybe coastal MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Not here we won't need one... not nearly enough wind. Maybe coastal MA. I would prefer lower wind amounts and heavier snow... A little wind is good, and I guess the biggies have higher winds, but a good interior, elevation dump is what I would like sheesh, only 13.5" for the season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I would prefer lower wind amounts and heavier snow... A little wind is good, and I guess the biggies have higher winds, but a good interior, elevation dump is what I would like sheesh, only 13.5" for the season... Ooof!! how is that possible? I thought you did well in that post X-mas storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 wish i could interpret models. nam at 60 nhas 1012 just off nc coast and 500 mb is closed over northern ohio. don't know how this compares to earlier/other runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 wish i could interpret models. nam at 60 nhas 1012 just off nc coast and 500 mb is closed over northern ohio. don't know how this compares to earlier/other runs It looks quicker but H5 is a little south. It looks quite juicy though, and the mid level lows go to town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 At 72, Low looks like its starting to go to town over LI.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 At 72, Low looks like its starting to go to town over LI.... Little N shift? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 NAM is destroying. NYC and southern CT at hr 69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It looks quicker but H5 is a little south. It looks quite juicy though, and the mid level lows go to town. Hammer time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Little N shift? I think you and I may like this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 nyc thread is talking heavy heavey phl-nyc-li at 69. is it still tucked in nicely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks like the 12Z NAM is deeper and has a more enhanced precip shield. Going to be good for NE I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Low looks like its going to track close to or right over BOS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.