40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Agree Edit: Actually not as good for here as the low jumps east and gives Maine a scraper. Don't worry about that....we are going to see some nice isentropic lift ith this, unlike the last one; the outskirts will do better than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Picked the wrong week to catch-up on the sleep. Looking mighty fine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Gnight everyone. I'm thinking if this looks good tomorrow night at 0Z, we have high confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Don't worry about that....we are going to see some nice isentropic lift ith this, unlike the last one; the outskirts will do better than modeled. Not worried just looking at this run for what it shows verbatium, I like where i sit right now...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Don't worry about that....we are going to see some nice isentropic lift ith this, unlike the last one; the outskirts will do better than modeled. I don't think I've ever seen you use isentropic lift before. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Models are just a tool....I wouldn't get too hung up on the QPF because the only limiting factor we have is that the system is relatively progreessive.....last event there were several, whether we chose to acknowledge them or not. I'm willing to bet the QPF goes up within the final 12-24 hrs preceeeding go-time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Don't worry about that....we are going to see some nice isentropic lift ith this, unlike the last one; the outskirts will do better than modeled. Kind of like Jan 2005. Not comparing but the track is just about what Euro is showing. Areas well NW got buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Kind of like Jan 2005. Not comparing but the track is just about what Euro is showing. Areas well NW got buried. Yeah you can get a large area of heavy snows....it doesn't have to just be in a narrow band. This is the type of ULL depiction you want to see to get that wider range. Jan '05 the Cape got 3 feet but I had 2 feet out here 75-80 miles away. Just how juicy this trends remains to be seen, but I could see a reasonably wide area of the heavy snows in this....whether thats 10-13" or 18-20" remains to be seen..its also remains to be seen where that zone of heavy snow is...it is most of populous SNE or is it further NW or SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Another bowling ball d8. Gorgeous run tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Kind of like Jan 2005. Not comparing but the track is just about what Euro is showing. Areas well NW got buried. I understand the analogy you are drawing and it's a good one....this H5 low is like a meteorological Prince Fielder; the waistline of the S+ will not be contained within the belt buckle of I 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I understand the analogy you are drawing and it's a good one....this H5 low is like a meteorological Prince Fielder; the waist line of the S+ will not be contained within the beltbuckle of I 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm very excited, but I'm trying to retain the lessons learned from the past and keep expections in check; however the sky is the limit here if everything breaks right.....it doesn't have to, but......yea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 03z SREFs are still really amped...but they do lok like they slightly ticked SE from the 21z run. They don't track the storm over E MA anymore...more like outer Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks like the EC ens mean will put the LP right between ACK and the BM. Maybe a hair north of the op, but south of the 12z ens mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Euro ensembles look maybe just a tick NW of the OP run...25-50 mi. A bit inside the BM rather than right over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks like the EC ens mean will put the LP right between ACK and the BM. Maybe a hair north of the op, but south of the 12z ens mean. Meh, but will make the larger population happy... so that's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks like the EC ens mean will put the LP right between ACK and the BM. Maybe a hair north of the op, but south of the 12z ens mean. Hopefully the next couple runs trend north. I don't see it happenin', but not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I like the 06z NAM, perfect interior SNE track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Another great night of model runs 1 foot plus for eveyone!! Off to shovel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Pretty nice hit for sne on the gfs through hr 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Great hit through hr 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Im warning you.. came home and got a blizzard the first week home.. this blizzard is coming my first week back at school.. sorry its gonna jackpot IZG. Sorry ray :weenie: :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 That's what I'm talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I feel 97% confident we'll see Blizzard watches/warnings from this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 MIDWEST TO MID ATLC/NORTHEAST... BROAD CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST WITH SHRTWV ENERGY SHEARING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. LGT TO MDT SNOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL FOCUS WITHIN THE FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENT PATTERN AND ALONG EXTENSIVE SFC TROUGH FROM IL TO PA AS WEAK SFC WAVE FORMS ALONG THE BNDRY. AS THE BULK OF THE UPPER ENERGY CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS...A MUCH STRONGER SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE EAST COAST TUES INTO WEDS. ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST THAT HVST PRECIP WILL ALIGN CLOSE TO THE COAST FROM NJ TO SRN NEW ENG...BUT A SLIGHTLY MORE WWD TRACK WOULD PRODUCE HVY SNOW TOTALS FARTHER INLAND AS INDICATED BY A NUMBER OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE 21Z SREF MEAN. BL TEMPS MAY ALSO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST...ESPECIALLY CAPE COD. Well, the 03z SREF mean seems pretty close to CC for a sfc low track and the smoothed 7h looks to dryslot a good portion of coastal S NE but keeps interior moist. I would say that's probably the best forecast right now, maybe farther SE with slp than CC. May or may not be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 got woken up by a freaking banging porch door I forgot to lock. so of course, had to take a peek. For up here I feel good and confident of a solid advisory snow. Not that sinking feeling but would like it to trend a bit nw. At this stage how do the GFS ens do vs. the OP in this kind of scenarios? I see they are nw. I saw the dgex....as much as I'd like to, can't go there. HPC discussion prelim was kinda strange. "snowstorm clipping the NE" Didn't say a lot in the discussion. The prelim graphic has a 992 inside the benchmark though. Gonna be a close call. Interesting, haven't had a truly classic coastal since i moved up here mar 08...really don't know how this area does and don't know how things tend to trend in this kind of setup. Will be a good learning experience for me. Good morning all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 got woken up by a freaking banging porch door I forgot to lock. so of course, had to take a peek. For up here I feel good and confident of a solid advisory snow. Not that sinking feeling but would like it to trend a bit nw. At this stage how do the GFS ens do vs. the OP in this kind of scenarios? I see they are nw. I saw the dgex....as much as I'd like to, can't go there. HPC discussion prelim was kinda strange. "snowstorm clipping the NE" Didn't say a lot in the discussion. The prelim graphic has a 992 inside the benchmark though. Gonna be a close call. Interesting, haven't had a truly classic coastal since i moved up here mar 08...really don't know how this area does and don't know how things tend to trend in this kind of setup. Will be a good learning experience for me. Good morning all. You are NW of CON, right?...that's not a bad spot for this setup, if the track is well inside the BM. BM track means you and I both miss out so let's hope for a Cape Cod cruiser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 You are NW of CON, right?...that's not a bad spot for this setup, if the track is well inside the BM. BM track means you and I both miss out so let's hope for a Cape Cod cruiser. yup that's where I am...700 ft or so 15 miles nw of CON. Benchmark track would still give advisory I think. CC would be awesome for us. We really haven't had a classic coastal like this since I moved here have we? Wasn't able to remember one. 08-09 was pretty much all swfe action, 09=10 had a swfe or two and the fooking retrograder and the boxing day coastal was a bit of a strange set up, not classic coastal for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.