MaineJayhawk Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Not hating but it could improve for the north folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I will be annoyed if the Jets win. OTOH, it would be great to beat the pizz out of them here. I really dislike Rex Ryan and that moron that wear's the fireman's helmet. Wanted them to lose but at least now we can see the Patriots spank them like misbehaving children. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 H7 low west of the GFS...we've seen this before...not good. don't get it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Almost identical 12/26 "dagger dryslot" at 84 hours on the GFS...hate this run with a passion. Hopefully the ensembles look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 They are the best kind. Overachievers for sure, and easier to forecast. Huge model runs this week. Don, hope your back is on the mend. Lot's of shovelling left this Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Almost identical 12/26 "dagger dryslot" at 84 hours on the GFS...hate this run with a passion. Hopefully the ensembles look better. Its actually not really close at all http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_700_084l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Maybe NAM is an anomaly tonight.....UK looks damned near perfect at H5... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Almost identical 12/26 "dagger dryslot" at 84 hours on the GFS...hate this run with a passion. Hopefully the ensembles look better. thinking the exact same thing....looks just like a few those runs leading up to the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Its actually not really close at all http://www.nco.ncep....fs_700_084l.gif Don't remember exactly what the 12/26 event looked like upstairs, but it seemed similar on the surface plot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Its actually not really close at all http://www.nco.ncep....fs_700_084l.gif QPF wise, it does seem a bit similar though? maybe i'm wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Better shot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Almost identical 12/26 "dagger dryslot" at 84 hours on the GFS...hate this run with a passion. Hopefully the ensembles look better. I disagree....it looks like it redevelops in plenty of time for us.....sw CT and NYC may have issues, but..... Love the high over Quebec; we didn't have that in the "dagger" event....I think this one trends juicier as we get closer. Very good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I disagree....it looks like it redevelops in plenty of time for us.....sw CT and NYC may have issues, but..... Love the high over Quebec.....I think this one trends juicier as we get closer. Very good run. Euro will stay the course I suspect with that crazy uncle look..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Don't remember exactly what the 12/26 event looked like upstairs, but it seemed similar on the surface plot. You can't look at sfc plots...its all about how it gets there. The 12/26 storm was a very mature storm by the time it reached near ACK/CC...this one is still in the process of developing rapidly. 12/26 shots its fireworks a little too far SW...a little more than models really indicated it would. This GFS run actually is too far southeast with the comma head for you. Check out the BOS sounding at 84h....complete saturated up to like 350mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well a NAM "scare" for some of us (to me) seems to be an outlier so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 After what the NAM just did, I'm so happy to see that image..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 So another 10-12" here Like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 You can't look at sfc plots...its all about how it gets there. The 12/26 storm was a very mature storm by the time it reached near ACK/CC...this one is still in the process of developing rapidly. 12/26 shots its fireworks a little too far SW...a little more than models really indicated it would. This GFS run actually is too far southeast with the comma head for you. Check out the BOS sounding at 84h....complete saturated up to like 350mb Good lord....my undies just got saturated looking at this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well, I'll defer if this solution doesn't blow. NAM must've gotten me too excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Good lord....my undies just got saturated looking at this! I will take a track between the Nam and Gfs to go please.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 You can't look at sfc plots...its all about how it gets there. The 12/26 storm was a very mature storm by the time it reached near ACK/CC...this one is still in the process of developing rapidly. 12/26 shots its fireworks a little too far SW...a little more than models really indicated it would. This GFS run actually is too far southeast with the comma head for you. Check out the BOS sounding at 84h....complete saturated up to like 350mb Exactly; the fact that this initally has the appeal of a swfe ultimately works to our advantage on this particular run because when the mid level centers redevelop, they do so in a perfect spot and go to town at the right time.....unlike the dagger event, in which the entire beast congealed and shot it's best load to our sw. I like this...we run the risk of it not redeveloping quick enough, but I'd rather risk that, than risk having a muture, shredded old hag. At least swfe's are very prolific for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Just to back up Will. Here is 850-500 RH/VV. As of now, rapid development and assoc VV help keep the dryslot well to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Snow day Wednesday coming. Not for me...no such thing in my business. But my daughter will likely be home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Just to back up Will. Here is 850-500 RH/VV. As of now, rapid development and assoc VV help keep the dryslot well to the south. Yeah, the GFS solution is actually too far SE with all the best forcing for areas like me and even up to Ray...that would be a BOS and SE MA jackpot....though we'd still do fine overall. But I think its better to see it SE a little bit in this time range. We know how coastal like to rip the best banding NW a little bit compared to what models show in the days leading up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah, the GFS solution is actually too far SE with all the best forcing for areas like me and even up to Ray...that would be a BOS and SE MA jackpot....though we'd still do fine overall. But I think its better to see it SE a little bit in this time range. We know how coastal like to rip the best banding NW a little bit compared to what models show in the days leading up. I was relieved to see the GFS have me on the nw periphery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah, the GFS solution is actually too far SE with all the best forcing for areas like me and even up to Ray...that would be a BOS and SE MA jackpot....though we'd still do fine overall. But I think its better to see it SE a little bit in this time range. We know how coastal like to rip the best banding NW a little bit compared to what models show in the days leading up. I was relieved to see the GFS have me on the nw periphery. Guess I really fouled up my interpretation then...my mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Guess I really fouled up my interpretation then...my mistake. Welcome to my world. NBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Exactly; the fact that this initally has the appeal of a swfe ultimately works to our advantage on this particular run because when the mid level centers redevelop, they do so in a perfect spot and go to town at the right time.....unlike the dagger event, in which the entire beast congealed and shot it's best load to our sw. I like this...we run the risk of it not redeveloping quick enough, but I'd rather risk that, than risk having a muture, shredded old hag. At least swfe's are very prolific for a time. Thanks Tip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Guess I really fouled up my interpretation then...my mistake. Its a pretty fine line...it just depends when this secondary really pops strongly. Heck even the NAM solution is in the process of rapidly transferring that it would probably never dryslot the interior...esp N of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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